Member Info for antonvb

Eeeeeerm ..... no. Kenya is still very relevant. Sorry if it makes you nervous about your short.

Https://www.pulselive.co.ke/news/local/president-ruto-announces-that-kenya-has-slowed-down-any-investment-in-oil-exploration/f5jzy1f?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=pulse-kenya-page-post

Surely if getting the oil out of Turkana was off the table he'd simply be saying they're not exploiting any oil reserves.

A £100 dividend .... should read "a £100m dividend"

A £100 dividend .... should read "a £100m dividend"

StanleyPro you say you want the share price to go up, but you say you don't want dividends. If my calculations are correct and we say there are 1.5b shares in issue, a £100 dividend would equate to 6.6p per share. At the current price that is a 20% return and if the price doubled, would still be a 10% return. £100m is not a big percentage of the projected free cash flow and considering Rahul will have 20m shares by 2025 I'm sure he doesn't want them worth 20p each.

I really really think 2024 is going to be our year......Kenya or no Kenya.

Lol.....stating facts.....you've not stated a single fact......ever. On the plus side to give you credit, at least you don't deny being short.

StanleyPro .... I still have faith or I'd have cashed in already, however I can't hold indefinitely. It's a realistic target. EPRA have said they'd make a decision on Kenya by Q1 and we'll know production forecasts for 2024.

POWER ... enjoy the dip and the profit on your short while you can.

True seakingalpha. Production is definitely up and Tullow haven't been shouting about it. Rahul is definitely cautious with news, however I also think he is a lot more shrewd than some people think. The next 3 to 6 months have to be pivotal for us. Really can't see myself continuing to hold beyond H1 next year if we're still this price.

Hard to judge sentiment when everyone has gone to sleep. Does seem a little strange that we've dropped from 39p to 34p in a week and we haven't had a barrage of posters telling us we're doomed and going back to 20p.

I guess we're into December now so can't expect too much to happen till the New Year. Those consultants in Kenya are probably having their Christmas party and will be jetting off on their holidays soon. Although woukd be nice to get a Jubilee wells RNS and a good bond tender RNS with a bit of luck.

POWER so sell before we go back to 20p.

If you believe there is no potential you shouldn't hold.......unless you were short. Ultimately, You're either short and trying to deceive or you're long and deranged. Take your pick.

Https://www.rigzone.com/news/kenya_plans_to_offer_oil_and_pipeline_companies_for_sale-29-nov-2023-174872-article/

Kenya have a back in option for 20% that can be exercised directly or through a vehicle such as the National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOCK). Will Kenya acquire the 20% through NOCK and then privatise it. That way they'd be getting the revenue or at least a lump sum and still keep their green credentials, as a private entity would be involved rather than a government department. Could be I'm reading too much into it, however either way to me it certainly doesn't seem like Kenya is dead in the water.

I wouldn't waste your time replying to POWER ...

1) If they're short they're merely deramping.

2) If they're long and have no faith in a share they own, then they're an idiot for holding.

3) If they've been burnt by holding on the drop down from £14 then they're even more of an idiot for constantly posting negative comments. Sentiment is everything and the only way this share is ever going to get to its true value is when people believe in it. LTH's posting smack doesn't encourage others to jump in.

End of the day .... facts are facts and the share price is the share price no matter who here says what. Simple fact is you can moan or deramp all you like, however you can't change the fact that debt management is going well, Tullow is producing 65kbopd (without the further new wells coming online). 2024 will be our year and my prediction is by the end of Q1 we'll see the real benefit in the share price once this is all in black and white. Time will tell and GLA.

Hear, hear....and long may it last!

An obscure reference for you J.Bond. Article is a few weeks old, however has the most detail I've seen as yet regarding why EPRA delayed the FDP approval and hired consultants.

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-eyes-20pc-stake-buyback-in-turkana-oil-4423480

Winds me up to no end when people keep banging on about 2023 production in the low 50's, but ignore all the recent improvements and the fact that recently Rahul has stated that they're currently producing around 65kbopd.

Here's hoping we get a great RNS tomorrow!

Announcement of Acceptance and Results

"As soon as reasonably practicable on the Business Day following the Expiration Time."

2025 notes tender closes at 5pm New York time.

Not sure about deadline .... more like flatline

Not sure if what I'm seeing is correct and slightly delayed data, however looks like only 1 algo trade in roughly 1.5 hours. are they finally leaving this share alone?

Thanks J.Bond. Appreciate you taking the time to respond and as always, a valuable insight.

I'm curious to get your opinion on the latest bond tender offer. I don't have much knowledge of this and am curious to try and understand what Rahul is trying to achieve here. I know in June he bought back around $166m, achieving a weighted average purchase price of 60.05%. That's all well and good, as at the time the bonds were looking very risky and I can understand why some might want to get out and he saved Tullow around $86m. However, now the 2025 and the 2026 seem to be over 90% and while the 2025 offer is by Dutch auction the 2026 offer is at a maximum of 89.125%. As Tullow now has the Glencore facility to cover the 2025's and FCF is looking promising for 2026 refinancing. Why would anyone take their offer, as surely you make more with interest payments and just waiting till they are settled and surely there is not a lot of saving for Tullow with the interest rate on the Glencore finance facility? Is Rahul doing this knowing it is probably not going to be successful, however knowing it will push up the bond prices making it easier to renegotiate their refinancing (surely it would be easier when the bonds are close to 100% as opposed to in their 60's or 70's). Or will he actually achieve a saving and is this a good offer for bond holders.

Thanks

Https://x.com/TullowGhanaLtd/status/1726540937017557174?s=20