Member Info for antonvb

The same as your deramping ....

StanleyPro....I think you're twisting the facts. Why don't you go watch the HY results presentation where Rahul states they are currently producing 65kbopd. Yes, the average is less than that for 2023, however it won't be for 2024.

I ramp a lot, however even I know there's not a lot the can do. I mean with the debt pile and what assets he has....please explain how you get to the magic 90k figure.

On another note......I see all the usual suspects are out in force again today..... doesn't take much of a drop these days.

POWER ... a serious question. You keep banging on about Rahul, however never say what could be done differently. What exactly is he or anyone else who inherited the mess that was Tullow Oil supposed to do? Uganda was sold, the debt was there when he arrived and Ghana production was already in decline. Surely a 50% increase in production in Jubilee and an arrest of the decline in TEN are major achievements. The fact that no one wants to buy Tullow share's or interest rates have rocketed is not really his fault.

£1

Scrodingerscat your last post is ridiculous. Statements like ....

"My argument is based entirely on 95,900 bopd over the quarter so we can all work out with some certainty what September's figure will be when next updated."

"In fact I would go so far as to say I really don't see why you've posted any of that, past production literally has no bearing whatsoever on the initial argument."

Give me strength .... anyway ... I'm not going to respond further as am probably annoying others on here and pretty sure even if Tullow produced a million barrels a day you'd still not feel there was any meaningful improvement.

I now know and here it is without the characters that the BB doesn't like....

July, 2023 ** 206,471.00 ** 6,660 Planned Shutdown

August, 2023 ** 574,256.00 ** 18,524

Daily average so far for 2023 18.1kbopd and average for 2022 was 23.6kbopd. Remembering Tullow's share of that is 54.84%. So we're down roughly 3kbopd on TEN. Hopefully they will address this and have stated they have a plan to do so.

True, I panicked on the Gabon coup drop and not afraid to admit my mistakes, however perhaps it would have been prudent for you to have done the same at some point since 2018.

Not sure why my post was truncated, anyway here is the rest of it

July, 2023 ** 206,471.00 ** 6,660

I'm sorry, but arresting a production decline and then turning it into a 40% production upswing is a massive turnaround .... no matter what you think. Yes TEN is an issue, however look at the numbers ... not quite the doom and gloom you think.

Month ** Oil Production ** Daily Average

January, 2023 ** 632,719.00 ** 20,410

February, 2023 ** 564,828.00 ** 18,220

March, 2023 ** 633,859.00 ** 20,447

April, 2023 ** 608,004.00 ** 19,613

May, 2023 ** 610,071.00 ** 19,680

June, 2023 ** 576,514.00 ** 18,597

July, 2023 ** 206,471.00 ** 6,660

Reposting with correct figure for May....

And just to help you out a little more and make it clearer, as seems you can't use tabs when posting here. Jubilee has been experiencing a steady decline as you can see and the decline was turned around at the end of May when 2,138,846 barrels were produced. To put this into perspective, compared to May, production was 42% higher in August when 3,036,877 barrels were produced. But let's not let facts get in the way of a good moan.

And just to help you out a little more and make it clearer, as seems you can't use tabs when posting here. Jubilee has been experiencing a steady decline as you can see and the decline was turned around at the end of May when 3,036,877 barrels were produced. To put this into perspective, compared to May, production was 42% higher in August when 3,036,877 barrels were produced. But let's not let facts get in the way of a good moan.

I love how how get critised for having an opion, yet my opinion and posting is based on actual articles and references, while yours is just your moaning. The facts regarding Jubilee are plain and simple and published on the Petroleum Commission of Ghana website:

Month Oil Production (BBL) Daily Average Oil Production (BBL)

January, 2023 2,402,046.00 77,485.35

February, 2023 1,993,443.00 71,194.39

March, 2023 2,105,550.00 67,920.97

April, 2023 1,997,685.00 66,589.50

May, 2023 2,138,846.00 68,995.03

June, 2023 2,475,623.00 82,520.77

July, 2023 2,760,625.00 89,052.42

August, 2023 3,036,877.00 97,963.77

https://www.petrocom.gov.gh/production-figures/

If you can't see the trend here or the fantastic turn around and want to split hairs over 2kbopd and a small delay in water injection, enjoy wallowing in your misery.

I think it's safe to say that it is. They haven't published the figures for September or October yet and as they have stated the water injectors only came onstream post quarter end, however in August 3,036,877 bbl was produced, which works out at an average of 97,963 bopd.

https://www.petrocom.gov.gh/production-figures/

Honestly think there some on here that fall into one of two categories ....

1) They purchased Tullow in the glory days and have been so decimated by the share price decline that they have lost all faith in Tullow and ever getting their money back. Understandable and I'd probably feel the same way if it was me.

2) They are short Tullow, pretend to be LTH and post negatively at every opportunity.

Yes and of course there is the rose tinted glasses brigade ... however you don't buy a lottery ticket thinking, praying or hoping you're never going to win. Hmmmmm ... hold that thought .... some on here probably do.

Scrodingerscat .... what part of "Production in the quarter increased by around 17% versus the second quarter following the successful startup of the Jubilee South East development, with three producers brought online taking gross field production up to around 100,000 barrels of oil per day, with continued growth expected." from the RNS don't you understand???

Interim gas sales afreement extended to end of November too.

"At TEN, production averaged approximately 15,100 bopd gross for the third quarter, in line with expectations, and lower quarter-on-quarter largely due to a planned two week shutdown.

The partnership has submitted a draft amended plan of development for a high-graded activity set at TEN and a combined gas sales agreement for Jubilee and TEN to the Government of Ghana for approval. An interim gas sales agreement for Jubilee associated gas has been extended through November 2023 at a price of $2.90/mmbtu while discussions are ongoing on a longer-term agreement."

Oh gees...give it a rest. This a BB for chat and opinions, what do you want me to post .... a 1000 page thesis on this. There's a 22.5% carry and yes we don't know the terms as the Kenyan government didn't make it public and they're looking into buying another 20%. Happy?

And your evidence is what.... your opinion. I'm entitled to my opinion as you are to yours, however at least I try do some research to back it up. Not seen you posting any and I do find it funny that you call the Twitter links and articles flakey. Not like they're tweets by the Kenyan government ministers or articles in the Kenyan mainstream media ...... oh no wait.....they are!

Plus the figures are the figures. I didn't make them up.....just quoting what is out there. The Kenyan government would love 42.5% (however it is structured) and if there is no strategic partner do they care....no, as they'd end up with 100% as Tullow would have to walk. Just like the others earlier this year.

Apologies that was my response after few drinks, however you had a go at me so not entirely unwarranted. Anyway.... I've already posted these links. This article is from July and clearly states that the state has 22.5%.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/tullow-says-it-is-in-talks-with-investors-for-oil-project-4312252

Then there is the article in the papers this week stating the state is looking at the possibility of buying 20%.

https://twitter.com/AMBANI77/status/1720323794567381214/photo/1

So I may well be wrong, however that to me looks like the state would end up with 42.5% and it really does look like they're using the approval of the FDP as a bargaining chip in the purchase of the 20%.

Scrotumscat ....bloody hell. I've just posted my opinion and backed it up with articles and twitter links. What will be will be. Don't see you posting a single bit of evidence that it won't be...... viva la Kenya

Seems this was in the papers there today too.

https://twitter.com/AMBANI77/status/1720323794567381214/photo/1

I really can't help thinking Kenya isn't as much of a fantasy as some on here believe. Look at this from the article Harry44 posted below and what is appearing in the news. We now know definitively why EPRA hired consultants and pushed out the decision till next year. If this was dead and buried they'd definitely not be engaging consultants to look at the possibility of acquiring another 20%. Reading between the lines, to me it looks like they are saying that they'll only approve the FDP if it's economically viable for them to get another 20%. Basically putting the squeeze on Tullow for favorable terms to acquire the 20% at a bargain basement discount price. Hell, maybe they even want it for free .... now that would be a very nice brown envelope for them to get the FDP approved. Considering Tullow ended up with 50% for free and without the FDP the whole thing is worthless .... I'd say just give it to them and let's get that strategic partner in ASAP.

“The production sharing contract gives the government a right to back in and join the contractor group by acquiring a 20 percent stake in the project,” said Mr Kiptoo.

“This option is exercised once the field development plan is approved and the projects move from exploration phase to development phase,” he said.

Mr Kiptoo said the financial consideration of the back-in could play a major role on whether the green light is given, considering that the government will likely pay billions of shillings.

“Epra is currently reviewing the FDP and this (back-in) is a decision that is yet to be made,” he said.

Thanks Harry....interesting. I wonder if this is on top of the 22.5% carry figure that was mentioned earlier this year, giving them 42.5%. That would be seen as a real win for the Kenyan people I think.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/tullow-says-it-is-in-talks-with-investors-for-oil-project-4312252