Member Info for antonvb

Well the good news is based on the comments Kenya is definitely not priced into the share price.

I've held Tullow for a few years now in the hope Kenya will cause a rerate in the share price and think if we hadn't had a change in government it would of already happened. I admit that I'm less convinced now that Kenya will go ahead, however it is definitely not dead and buried. Yes, it is extremely complex and there is a long line of people to please to get it approved and perhaps not enough brown envelopes to make it happen. However, EPRA hired consultants for a reason and Rahul committed another 10 million to it. That would not happen if it was dead and buried.

The outcome remains to be seen, however I think a lot on here are forgetting there's a legal agreement that the Kenyan government have to abide by. That agreement was put in place over 10 years ago at a time when there was less green focus and the Kenyan government was very much in favour of getting the oil out the ground. Let's also not forget that Tullow have already billed the government to reclaim over $2B in costs. Tullow will get something out of this .....

Of late I try include references to my "facts" and in doing so found this article with regarding to the billing. On reading it again there is a very interesting sentence:

https://www.pulselive.co.ke/bi/finance/tullow-oil-slaps-kenyan-government-with-a-sh204-billion-bill-for-discovering-turkanas/getby3n

"The exploration bill has been the subject of speculation for years following delays by the Kenyan government to hire a firm to audit the costs."

We know EPRA have hired consultants and pushed out the decision to Q1 next year. Have they finally bought in consultants to audit the costs and will they pay Tullow off to settle this. Don't think Rahul would complain if we got $500m compensation and could walk away. Don't think the Kenyan government would complain too much either as they would have 100% stake in a $32B oil field and I'm sure they could get the Chinese to develop it.

Theory will get scoffed at, however I don't think it is impossible. Remember ...Rahul has said debt is no longer an issue and he must have a reason for saying that. Something is going that is for sure, so be interesting to see how this plays out.

Trading Statement and Operational Update on 15th Nov

https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/events/

Will also get an advance sneak peek on Ghana from the Kosmos update on the 6th November.

https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/events/event-details/q3-2023-kosmos-energy-earnings-conference-call

Https://x.com/lapsset/status/1719344663549608134?s=20

So looking over some older articles, we know we're waiting on EPRA to approve the FDP and they've bought in consultants:

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/epra-hires-consultants-to-review-tullow-s-oil-plan--4367830

"“Epra, the regulator, has recently engaged third party consultants to review the revised FDP and extended the review period to quarter one of 2024. The group expects a production licence to be granted once government due process has been completed,” said the company in its half-year financial brief."

We also know that Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) acquired the defunct State-owned Kenya Petroleum Refineries Limited (KPRL) :

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/kenya-pipeline-to-buy-oil-refinery-at-zero-cost--4313414

"The Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) will acquire the defunct State-owned Kenya Petroleum Refineries Limited (KPRL) at no cost in a plan aimed at strengthening the country’s petroleum supply chain infrastructure."

Then it seems that KPC want to use the refinery tanks for fuel storage:

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/commodities/kpc-eyes-refinery-tanks-for-fuel-storage-boost--4354352

"Kenya does not plan to go back into crude oil refining following the takeover of the defunct State-owned Kenya Petroleum Refineries Ltd (KPRL) by Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC).

Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir said 45 tanks with a total storage capacity of 484 million litres will make Kenya competitive in the region."

The really interesting bit is this paragraph in the article:

"Speaking after meeting Mombasa leaders; Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, Mombasa senator Mohammed Faki and Omar Mwinyi (MP Changamwe), he said the government had contracted Price Water Coopers (PWC) which recommended the tanks to be used for storage."

So the question we have to ask here is "Are these the same consultants engaged by EPRA regarding the FDP approval and is the use of the storage tanks related?". Quite possibly I'd guess (not that I'm qualified to guess) as surely it would be necessary to have an end point somewhere to store the oil before it was loaded for export or whatever it is destined to be used for.

Just can't see any dilution unless there is absolutely no other choice and it's the last resort. Rahul will have 20 million odd shares by 2025, so it's not in his interests. We didn't dilute in 2020, so probably won't now and Rahul has said debt is no longer an issue.

I would however love someone to buy us out at £1 a share.

I may have been putting words in Rahul's mouth with the Jubilee increase to 120kbopd in 2023. I seemed to remember it was 120k, however after fact checking myself to double check it might of only been 100k this year. Apologies ... should of checked it before posting. That said...120k may still be on the cards at some point in the near future.

"The Jubilee South East subsea development is tied back to the FPSO Kwame Nkrumah MV21 moored in 1,100 m water depth in the Jubilee Field. The Jubilee Field has been online since 2010. The FPSO can handle 120,000 bbl/d of oil and inject more than 230,000 bbl/d of water and 160 MMcf/d of produced gas."

https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/jubilee-south-east-goes-onstream-205775

Exactly gogadget....In the HY results presentation Rahul stated that Tullow was now producing 64kbopd and why he said it is no longer jam tomorrow. You could also see that he looked a bit demoralised with the share price/sentiment given the turn around.

This is also why I've been saying we need to see it in black and white. Due to the past few years of decline people are so negative regarding Tullow that they need to see it to believe it. Hopefully we'll see some concrete figures or guidance in the update in November. If he can get Jubilee up to 120kbopd by the end of the year as promised...that's another 8kbopd on top taking production up to 72kbopd for 2024. Now that would be quite something!

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/ep-africa/540054/exxon-chevron-dust-off-west-africa-plans/

The petroleum Commission Ghana have finally updated the numbers for August, which I believe is the first full month since the Jubilee production increases were announced. In August 3,036,877 barrels were extracted. which equates to 98kbopd. Tullow's share is 38.98% giving roughly 38.3kbopd. To put this into context the average for January to June 2023 was 28.2kpopd. This represents a 35% increase in production. All assuming my calculations are correct..... hence why Rahul said it is no longer jam tomorrow.

Additionally as an aside the average for TEN in August was 10.15kbopd, with the January to June average for Tullow 11kbopd.

https://www.petrocom.gov.gh/production-figures/

We spiked 4% today and a small short reduction reported again today ..... coincidence ..... maybe, however I'm not so sure. Volumes are small at the moment and they're buying back a fair chunk of shares. Could be they're taking long positions before closing and using the spike to offset the short loss as you say gogadget. They must be up to something as simply can't see them sitting back and watching a loss get bigger and bigger. Be interesting to see if we drop back to 34/33p tomorrow.

Lol ... let's hope so

The shorts won't bail based on anything in the past 10 years. They will bail based on the current situation, for example if Kenya is approved. I know you don't think it's ever happen however it is still a very real possibility. Other reasons they may need to bail is if there is a rerate due to higher production coming out of Ghana or if Tullow successfully refinances.

I'm not saying they're holding the share price back or controlling it and don't think I've ever said that. I just don't see why when holding your short up to 66p while showing an eye watering loss you wouldn't then bail when you get a get out of jail free card at 21p. Even just taking the swing from the year low of 21p up to 39p before the HY results is a 100% swing in the wrong direction for them. I just really don't understand why they just keep holding. I mean they could of closed at 21p and shorted again at 39p, as longs of done who sold and bought back in lower. Aren't they supposed to know what they're doing? Really doesn't look like it to me.....

I don't know why people call it an obsession with shorters .... it's a relevant factor and will play a big part in driving the share price up if for example Kenya is approved. Also, if you look at the share price history there does seem to be a spike in share price when they've reduced. Just trying to understand what they hope to achieve, as Bugsy911 pointed out they have held from 6p all the way up to 66p, back down to 21p and up to 39p, back down to 34p where we are now. Now we're not talking about a PI like me with no tools, no research team, etc,, etc. They're supposed to be the clever ones here and in the know. Is it pure greed and they want it to go bust or won't close or maybe they've hedged, however what would they have hedged against that has swung like the share price has. I just don't get it .... to me really does seem like they've backed themselves into a corner and now need a miracle to get out. Bit like for example you'd bough Cineworld and it tanked from 100p to a few pence. You just hold and pray, as you holding has become pretty much worthless. The stock market sure does work in weird and mysterious way....don't think I'll ever understand the half of it.

According to the short tracker website on the 18th of October GLG Partners LP reported a reduction of their 0.61% total short position by 0.02%. I guess we can't be exactly sure when they bought back the 0.02% shares, however if we look at the historical share price graph we can see the following closing prices:

16th Oct - 33.96p

17th Oct - 33.70p

18th Oct - 35.06p

19th Oct - 34.36p

20th Oct - 33.64p

This appears to have created an approximately 4% spike in the share price. If this is the case, what is going to happen if GLG Partners LP and Pictet Asset Management Ltd need to close their 2.67% total short positions in a hurry?

I've wondered why the big shorts haven't reduced given we've had some big drops in the share price, for example when we went sub 25p. I'm starting to think they can't reduce without spiking the share price, so have no choice but to try wait it out till at some point in the future we see a big oil price crash for whatever reason. Or alternatively they're praying the refinancing goes tits up. Can't help thinking this is going to get really interesting at some point in the near future.

Could of course be I'm reading too much into this and I always take a simplistic view, however how else can they get out?

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB000150080

I agree with what you're saying and more then likely we'll see interim agreements rolling over for the near future. There is definitely no incentive in Ghana signing an agreement, however things like this in Africa definitely take longer as we've seen countless times. I think we'll see an RNS early next month for an extension of the interim agreement or perhaps an announcement with the company update. This is based on the fact that for the first interim agreement was expected to run from January to June we got the RNS for the new interim agreement in early Augrust. As long as we're getting a reasonable price for the gas under interim agreements and it's sold, it doesn't really make too much difference in the scheme of things.

Tullow could sell the gas elsewhere or flare it instead of supplying it as you say, however I don't think they'd ever do this. The gas in Ghana is used for power generation, so it wouldn't go down well if Tullow suddenly stopped supplying it. I guess it's a fine balance between commercializing the gas and trying to keep the Ghanaian government happy. As others on here have mentioned before, let's just hope Tullow are trying to use their generous terms for the supply of gas to win some favour with the tax dispute, as there is still a possibility that could be settled before the end of the arbitration.

Would be nice to get some kind of positive update now .... another well online and the new improved Jubilee production numbers for August and September would be a good start.

It's Africa .... timeframes are hard to enforce. Like why haven't the Ghana Petroleum Commission updated the production numbers on their website for August and September. No new numbers published since the new wells have come online. Are they waiting for Kosmos to announce it first in their update on 6th November before releasing to the public? Who knows. I emailed the Ghana Petroleum Commission to ask when they'll be released but no response.

We have an update on the 11th or 12th of November I think so hopefully will get a proper update and not just the usual we expect blah blah blah.

Nice to see positive press for a change

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1030652/tullow-oil-receives-upgrade-on-growing-production-1030652.html

Https://twitter.com/lapsset/status/1714250150774800822?t=blLYCbcZj-NRRnMTQ9DvVQ&s=19

So why exactly do you feel the need to contribute on here POWER. If you hold without faith you should sell, rather then criticise. Perhaps your little short isn't going too well at the moment.

OK, so he goes and new guy comes in. What exactly are you then expecting to happen?

Perhaps...however this was this was tweeted last month so not the first time there is a link between Tullow and Nigeria.

https://twitter.com/OlaniwunAjayiLP/status/1707424903912157228?t=h8qTASNLY8sf9VIjafeRSg&s=19