Member Info for Andrew4444

Snakes

The plant issue was only with Moz. They have produced zero income due to their plant not being fit for purpose. All income over the last few months has been by sino only.

They have not reported any recovery problems with their plant and no reason to think they have any now..

Mike

I don't see any inconsistency in what CB said in both RNSs.

He said modest returns in 25 June RNS and Significant better production 14 June RNS

We started from a very low base so a significantly better production can still be a modest return. A 50% increase in production is significant, but would result in a profit of just $60K a quarter. $20k a month profit is a modest return.

Maybe, for once, he's trying to manage expectations so no one thinks significantly better production means significantly better returns (money) - hence the second 'modest returns' comment.

Mike

This is what CB said in RNS

'Cumulative production to date is running ahead of Q1 (being the three months ended 31 March 2018), and significantly better than prior quarters with more than two weeks of potential production remaining'

We all know how CB can be economical with the truth and be very vague with his predictions but even a cynic like me would be surprised if he tried to get away with saying that significantly better production figures meant same production figures ! I would be very surprised if the total production figures were less than 1500 oz.

Even that would see the profit nearly double. (from a very low base)

Logically I could only see the sp going down if the figures are the same (or worse!) as last results.. But the sp movement is never logical in AIM so who knows what the sp will do!

H50

My 1600 oz estimate was based heavily on the comment by CB that they had reached Q1 production level with two weeks of Q2 left. I assume he made that comment when Q1 figures had been equalled and not well after they had been equalled. Hence my + 20% / 30% estimated increase. If he hadn't of said what he did, I would have estimated Q2 production to be circa 1800 oz. about 50%more.

CB has said in a March pod cast that the rains 'did not effect sino that much' as they were bringing the plant to the river bank. Because of that comment and the other comment re meeting Q1 production levels, I think 1600 oz seems reasonable - possibly 1800 oz. at best. That said, my 'evidence' for believing 1600 oz is likely is not robust so you may well be nearer the money with 2000 oz. I hope so. I would be amazed if it was above 2000 oz.

There are different figures for covering 'total costs' depending what head office costs actually mean. It may not mean total and all company costs - which he stated as $85K a month. I find it very hard to believe that our income will be $85K a month ($250K a quarter) just yet. I'm afraid I take a lot of what CB says with a sack of salt - unless he states absolute figures which leave less room for interpretation. I feel his rampy pod cast (excluding last one) have done great damage to the sp when reality didn;t meet the hype. However, that doesnt mean there isnt real value here at this sp. I think there is.

All i want to see is alluvial income increasing each quarter and to a level which comfortably covers all costs. That will do for me and, if so, will see the sp rerate (IMHO). Cost covering alluvial income then gives CB plenty of time to negotiate the hard rock deals from a position of strength.

I already held quite a few million prior to the drop sub 2p and have added a bit more (3m). Only time will tell if that was a sensible decision :)

IMHO Not a rec to buy. I may be wrong !

H50

I hope you're right but I think those figures are very optimistic (at least for Q2).

Two weeks before the end of Q2 CB said that production had already reached same level of Q1. So I maybe that's 20% to 30% higher than in Q1. That would be circa 1600 oz.

1600 oz = 400 oz to Explorator

You've made an error in your POG. We won't get full POG.

We have been selling the dor bars locally as this saved us the hassle and expense of refining them and selling the pure gold on the market. Cheaper to do this as the amounts for alluvial gold we are selling is relatively small. Please see 27 April RNS figures in table.

400 oz x $1000 (it was $1050 dor bar price but POG dropped $50 an oz since then)

= $400,000 Explorator gold sales

= $160,000 Xtract cut (40%)

I agree with your $110K Xtract costs

= $50K net profit ($160K less $110k) to Xtract for Q2

This is double the Xtract Q1 profit figures so it is a 'significant improvement' as CB said, but, as CB also said, it is a modest return.

I agree that as more contractors start to work the area the income will substantially increase. CB has confirmed that total group costs are $85K a month (circa $250K a quarter). As I think income will be circa $160K a quarter at next results, you can see why CB said he is very confident alluvial income will cover all group costs. We may end up with a slight profit when fully up to speed (end of year?) I still can't see that profit being more than $50K a month (nothing like the $320K income a month as stated by CB in last years RNS).

Maybe that's one reason (of many) why the sp has tanked !

If alluvial income can cover all group costs then I would expect the SP to rerate (from this level). If we can make a small profit from alluvial income then it will probably go back to 2.5p to 3p fairly quickly.

AIMHO. Not a rec to buy. I could be wrong.

Thomas

Great post!

If only CB would stop releasing RNS - that would stop the sp going down. As no more bad news is good news, no more RNSs should mean a steady rise of the sp. We could all just assume all was going well.

With no more RNSs I think the sp should hit 10p within a year !

As I said, great post :)

Mike

It depends how people interpret 'not good results'. CB has made it very clear that Q2 returns will be modest (but better than last Quarter) there is no logical reason for the sp to go down when RNS confirms what CB has already said. (assuming that is what is reported in RNS). He's really played the next set of results down - for once.

But logic doesnt beat emotion and sentiment. We;ve already seen that here, so who knows what the sp will do ?

I suspect the next RNS will see a bit of an sp increase (and should not see a decrease), assuming there has been some, albeit slight, increase in alluvial income.

Irrespective of what happens to sp after next RNS I think this will, at least, go back to 2p by end or the year, so I will continue to buy more while the sp is below 2p.

IMHO. I may be wrong. Not a rec to buy ! DYOR.

LW

25 June RNS - the Company expects to report its production for Q2 in mid-July.

No other news was promised or expected in June.

Don't know about carnage below 1p, more like tsunami of buying!

IMHO

Three consecutive days with sp not going down!

H50

That post doesnt really help those that a trying to add more sub 1p :)

Where's itsaduster when you need him!

until tomorrow's close...

consecutive days the sp has NOT gone down.

we're on a roll :)

Well done Colin :)

Bat

This has been mentioned a few times.

Both comments are correct. We know the previous returns were very small so a doubling of them would be a significant increase - but still modest return against actual income.

I don't think CB was being ambiguous, but for once, he was being honest with his 'modest' returns comment.

I'd wait a week If I were you. If stays here for a week then maybe, its the bottom.

Next news mid July so may keep drifting down until a week before next news due, then some may start buying a week before next news?

AIMHO

Ngup

To clarify, I think the announcement of new contractors would of helped move the sp last year, but because of the failure of moz and omnia, no forward pricing is being done now. CB can't now get away with talking a good game or giving us potentialy good news (new contractors). For alluvials at least- he will now be judged on one thing, income.

All I'm bothered about is alluvial income covering all costs, and I think that will be the case by Q4, probably sooner.

Things have not gone to plan here, and CB has not helped with his ramps and misinformation. But this is not a basket case of a co as some would seem to imply.

I expect the sp to back above 2p by end of the year hence still adding while below 2p.

DYOR I may be wrong.

Ngup

I agree with most of what you say. However, I think it will take more than just the announcement of new contracts to move the sp. We will need to see real income being made from these new contracts before most believe it.

I think now people want to see the money.

Pie

I called them 2M sells as the total batch was equal to 2M. Looking at the times of sells it looks like they were all from either one person or possible two.

15:26:19 1.1670 150,000
15:25:41 1.1670 250,000
15:25:08 1.1500 750,000
14:49:27 1.1800 250,000
14:48:48 1.1800 250,000
14:47:09 1.1860 350,000

Not many are selling, but can't agree no one is.

3 years to realise full potential. SP may well rise quickly this year.

For me, this is now going to take upto 3 years to realise the full potential (if it does). I suspect those that thought this was a quick win have now sold and have been selling hence the drop. The 2m sells in batch looks like another one has thrown in the towel to make money quicker someone else. Can't blame them as they probably will.

I have been critical of CB's PR and ability to manage expectations - which has also contributed to the fall (IMHO). But in todays pod cast I thought he was more circumspect, honest and not rampy - for once. In addition, in the RNS he seems to confirm that Sino will only be making modest returns over the next few months. At least more honest than previous RNS ie RNS last year $320K a month alluvial income !.

It could well be that he is finally going to do what he always said - under promise and over deliver. We'll see.

Although we all knew about Moz, hopefully this is the last skeleton out of the cupboard. Hopefully....

Think i'll check this once a month now and keep adding if less than 2p. I still expect this to hit 5p to 8p but in 2 to 3 years.

Can't wait until June 2021. Hope CB is Still alive by then. Actually, hope I am :)

GLA

H50

Ok thanks. I assumed the £1m was a typo as you stated $ for the other $200K. That's $1.5M total then.

I take your point re lower capex helping negotiations - just as long as he doesnt think we could fund this ourselves.

Did he even hint at timescales for new alluvial contractor covering north side??