Member Info for Andrew4444

JDAU

I know what hes done, but also know what he hasnt done

Both views are correct and not mutually exclusive.

CB has done all you say and deserved credit for that. But its true to say that not everything he has said comes to fruition. Which was LW's original point and a statement of fact rather than opinion.

See many previous RNSs for proof of that :)

JDAU

80/20 FB split mentioned by CB as AGM and investor show.

50/50 non-FB split mentioned in 19 Feb RNS. NOT concerning FB, but that was my point in previous posts.

75/25 split was me, just giving my thoughts and views...on a bulletin board :).

Ngup

All CB said was that Fair Bride may well be processed through the Omnia plant (which seems sensible to me) , he didn't mention under what terms so there is no reason to think, IMHO they will be the same. As Omnia may be getting a bigger deal wiith Non-FB and FB, I think it possible that we may get a slightly better deal than current 80/20 split that CB has talked about,so hence I think slightly better of 75/25 has more credibility than a massive improvement to 50/50.

Many have criticised CB for his inability to manage expectations. In this case, I don't think its CB who needs to try an manage expectations !!

More than happy to be proved wrong..... and hope I am!. As you say, all conjecture at the moment.

All IMHO

IWTO

I don't agree that CB has inferred any 50/50 split for FB with Omnia. CB has known about Omnia's plant for some time so if a 50/50 split was ever possible with them I don't know why he didn't persue that when he was talking to them about the 50/50 split for non-FB hard rock? Why pursue an 80/20 split with the Chinese if a significantly better deal with Omnia was possible.

I hope I'm wrong but any talk of a 50/50 split with Omnia for FB just seems far too good to be true. I would think 25/75 at best - which would be a very good deal and rerate the sp.

All IMHO

I've seen a few posts implying that should Omnia process Fairbride hard rock the 80/20 deal is off the table and that it will be 50/50 deal as per non-FB HR agreement with Omnia. CB has not stated or implied this. All he has said, as far as I can see, is this...

'Should we elect the latter route, then Fair Bride may well be processed through the Omnia plant subject to final agreement with Omnia".

If CB doesnt get a 50/50 FB deal with Omnia, I hope he wont be criticised for not doing what he said, especially when he hasnt stated what the split would be with Omnia IF FB was processed through them. It may well be the previously implied 80/20.

A 50/50 FB deal with omnia would be fantastic, but CB has not stated or implied that, as far as I can see.

RNS reinforces massive potential of area but the question still remains can CB deliver and exploit that potential?

My bet is yes, hence I've been adding over last few months

But it is a bet - no one can be sure either way.

Yep, hence CB is minded to try and do some of the work ourselves and get a much larger slice.

We'll see if he can, or wants to take that risk..

That said, new contractors who work the terraces may be using our newly acquired ex Moz plant so we may get more of a cut if that happens.

May be.

IWTO

CB confirmed at the investor show that total group co costs was $84K a month which is about 25KG of gold a month (we get about 10% of sales).

The second 25KG from second contractor, assuming it happens, will be net profit so that's about $1m profit a year ($85 x 12). That would be the max against targeted 50kg a month. Whatever it is, it will be net profit after the first 25KG has been produced. We are 72% away from true break even with just sino producing.

It's obvious we need more contractors PDQ. It's all about volume.

Just a thought. You can see why CB is considering trying to work part of alluvials ourselves. If we did 18KG a month like sino did that would be nearly $600K a month revenue - obvious before costs which would be much higher than under current arrangement, but no doubt a lot more profit than against current deal . As I've said before, we are giving away a lot of money under current arrangement. CB was negotiating from a position of weakness at the time.

As long as we get to 25kg a month (72% there now) that will give CB breathing space to negotiate HR details from a position of relative strength. I'm confident we will, at the very least, get to 25KG before end of year and will probably making some profit by then.

Heading in the right direction - buy very slowly ! That may well speed up soon.

Note
# we get about $1030 an ounce as its not sold on open market.No full POG.

We only made a loss as we didn't sell all the gold. In fact a lot was not sold.

If you factor in the gold not sold it increases income by $60K so net profit of $50K in Q2. I'm assuming prod costs would not increase as this would be included in gold recovered but not sold.

Not fantastic but moving, very slowly, in the right direction.

An OK RNS for me.

Teacup64

Please release Teacup64. I know you are an impostor and have the real Teacup locked-up.

The real Teacup would never of posted that :)

Many could only dream to have that as their average!

My first buy was at equivalent of 50p+

I've managed to average down a bit since then :)

Similar? Or will they both be winners soon:)

(with apologies to the lightning seeds!. And yes, I was bored)

it's going up, it's going up, it's going,
Xtract’s going up

it's going up, it's going up, it's going,
Xtract’s going up.

it's going up, it's going up, it's going,
Xtract’s going up

Everyone seems to know the score,
They've seen it all before
They just know, they're so sure
That Xtract’s gonna spike up one day, then retrace away
But I know this could pay,
'Cause I remember

Three contractors were a cert
Colin Bird was gleaming
Many years of hurt
Never stopped us dreaming

So many jokes, so many sneers
But all those constant fears.
Wear you down, through the years
But I still see that hard rock is there
And Omnia will share, they do really care
And Fair bride financing

Three contractors were a cert
Colin Bird was gleaming
Many years of hurt
Never stopped us dreaming

Luckyboy

My sp prediction was based on the news from imminent RNS re alluvial income. Obviously if we get, in time, positive news about hard rock the sp will climb higher. I would think it would go considerably higher then 3p with hard rock news.

I think 5p to 8p is a reasonable estimate in 2 years but that's assuming all goes well with the hard rock.

Stevensd

I hope you're right but i'd be amazed if it was 3p after the RNS.

Best I would say would be 1.7p (30% increase) after a good RNS. Slowly climbing back to circa 2p over next few months assuming progress is made with new alluvial contractors.

If RNS not good or moreover not seen to be good by the market then back down to circa 1.2p.

I think the RNS will be released w/c 16 July so not next week. Best to add on some delay with CB :)

MG

When you said you wont see this sp down at 1p for a while, that implies it will be at some point in the future.

So may be down at 1p when next RNS is released? :)

That was a joke - I hope!

H50

Yes the potential is great but the question is will CB exploit any, some or all of the manica potential? So far the answer has been no.

I'm betting he will realise at least some but I could be wrong.

Year1970

Not too sure why you say I need to be careful not to be like JN and CB by giving false hope, as any positive post I make I qualify it with not a rec to buy or I could be wrong ! If anyone wants to read that as giving false hope then, with respect, they are very silly. I have, in the past, been accused of being a basher as I have been very critical of CB, and still am as can be seen by my very recent posts !.

Have another read of what I actually said. I didn't say I would stop posting I said I would check this (SP) once a month. Never said I would stop posting.

I won't finish off this post with AIMHO. Its not, its all fact :)

Cavity

I have been here nearly 5 years and know CB is capable of doing anything unexpected. I don't trust everything he says for good reason. He says what he wants to happen / hopes rather than what he thinks is likely to happen (IMHO)

However, I do believe in the fundamentals here and think that even he is capable of getting value, some value at least, out of manica and with the sp at circa 1p I expect this to be multiples of current sp within 2 years.

For that reason I'll be adding a lot more if it does drop below 1p and will continue to add a bit every week while its under 2p

IMHO Not a rec to buy I may be wrong.

my sub 1p top-up.

I'll now have to wait for the next RNS for that :)