Member Info for Andrew4444

Daz

I think alot follow your approach and will believe what they want to believe as its comforting and less depressing ! The problem in doing that is that it leads to more angst and stress when the very optimistic (and probably unrealistic) view does not happen.

Bat

For clarity, I still think we will get hard rock agreement but the issue is when and the certainty some still put against CBs predictions and timescales. I still believe sp will hit 4p to 6p in 2 or 3 years time.

Using your train analogy, I think we will get to our destination, but it will be calling at many stations, points failure, leaves on the line and delays! At the moment we are on the replacement bus service. This is not a high speed direct service.... yet :)

Daz

I keep reading again and again from many posters that Omnia will be starting hard rock this quarter. This is an apparent fact, why? Because CB has said this in an RNS, This may well happen. But why are so many so sure it definitely will happen? Its being reported as fact.

How many times has CB said things either in an RNS or in an interview that has not happened??!!

I'm not saying it won't happen, but I just don't understand why so many see this as a certainty after so many failed CBs promises and predictions - many also in RNSs..

Cyber

I agree with your last para and have made the same point before a few times. If all group cost were covered it really takes the pressure off CB and increases his negotiating position. The income increase may well be nominal - but it will take the co from loss making to breakeven or slight profit making. The actual value is not as relevant as what it does for Xtract's position.

Its more significant for a co to move from 10% loss to 10% profit with a 20% increase in revenue, than it is for a company to increased income by 20% from a profit making position - that just means more profit !

20% figure was for illustration so I'm not saying that will be Xtract's increase. Should be a lot more.

Jezzo

I've been in this for 5 years and lost count the number of times I wished I'd traded this. What happened over last few days has happened many times before and I then was buying into the rise ! Then it fell sharply.

I very recently took the decision to start trading a small % of my holding and in my first attempt lost 100K of shares as ended up buying back some at higher price ! I thought this would play out as Q1 Q2 and Q3 did - ie buys into anticipated good news then fall. I gambled and sold above 1p and I am in the process of buying back but think this will settle 0.8p.

We'll see, I could be wrong.

Just don't trade many, keep a large core holding and be ready to quickly buy back if you get it wrong. If I had traded this over last 5 years I would probably have double the amount of shares !

Good Luck!

LW

Sino were working on the riverbed and getting the low hanging fruit. They were not working on the terraces. Now they have all area and all topography to work on.

They may well be increasing production buy only on the area they are currently working (river bed area). I think it highly likely income will increase in Q1 and thereafter. They may further increasing production to deal with terraces soon. Next announcement may be?

The big question for me is, can Sino Mk2 successfully work the terraces? This seemed to see off moz and Omnia. CB has said many times the overburden is high and very challenging. IF they can, then grades will be significantly better.

Interesting that CB mention low grades for the first time in RNS. I did some calcs and posted a while back (18 jan) saying that I didnt think we have been getting 0.5g / t. If we are then Sino could only have been working about 6 hours a day. I'm sure it would of been more, probably 12 hours a day so IMHO grades are circa 0.25 g not 0.5g. 24/7 increase should see income at least double. Not to a massive amount but should be enough to cover all group costs, not just production, and G&A.

We seem to be moving forward here, but in a slow two steps forward and one back way !

Hi CE

I’m well thanks and a little better since the rise ! Good to see you back posting more frequently.

You’re right. I did sell 1.5M recently. Bought some back straight away under 0.8 but also unfortunately some over 0.8p - overall lost circa 100K shares. Not my best decision but no great issue. I will be trading a small amount and will take the risk.

For clarity, my post was not trying to motivate people to buy or sell, but to give some balance. Understandably, in this very positive situation, there has been a lot of rampy posts. As you rightly say, I hold a substantial amount so I’d be delighted to see this keep increasing.

You never know, possibly, 15p by end of Q2:)

ATB

...to keep the momentum going. If they are good, then onwards and upwards, if they are not, then after this massive rise over last few days then things will be, urr, interesting ! As per last quarters, some of this rise must of been in anticipation of decent or better results.

Last four quarterly release dates (not in order):

two on 25th,
one on 27th (the disappointing one according to CB)
one on 16th (the good one according to CB and the one he wanted to get out early to ,'steady the market' in his words).

So IF that holds true we should get something tomorrow. If its next week then it may not be as good as some expected.

We'll see.

Teacup

Sino Mk2 (as I call them) are going to ensure a substantial increase in alluvial income. No doubt.

But that will be reported in Mid April earliest. I'm just wondering if most of this welcome rise today wont be slowly eroded unless we get more news relatively quickly.

I hope I'm wrong but we've been hear before - many times !

We'll see

Tea

The really big news is due this quarter RE Hard Rock. But that could be 2 months away. In fact as CB said news this quarter I assume it likely to be next quarter :).

An announcement soon re Hard rock will see the sp continue upwards, but we may get OK Q4 results this week and no more news for 2 months. That may see SP drift back down again.

We need momentum.

Teacup

Unfortunately you are correct. Lets see what happens when Q4 results are released. last three quarters SP went down after results and Q2 and Q3 results were not bad. The sp seems to be pricing in better results than Q3. Not too sure if that will happen.

Lets see if the sp can hold or rise after results. We will know soon !

LW

Not too sure were you get 1495 oz figure from. Total production over the last 4 quarters was cira 6000 oz.

I think Sino have probably been working circa 12 hours a day so grade is probably circa 0.25g/t

New deal should see income double as production will be 24/ 7.

I would guess new income (not profit) per month should be $125K to $150K a month. Enough to pay all group cost and give CB some breathing space.

That's good but not as good as some have implied.

IMHO

We'll see.

I’ve seen a few calcs trying predict the anticipated income levels with the new alluvial deal with Sino Mk 2. Understandably the standard figure of 0.5g/t is being used in the calcs but I don’t think we have been getting that average over the last year.

My reasoning for saying that is if you reverse engineer the current production figures and assuming 0.5g/t, it means Sino have been working just 6hrs 15 mins a day, every day, or 7 hrs 45 mins 6 days a week. That is assuming they are using one 200tph plant. Sino have only every mentioned 200tph plants, so I’m sure that’s what they have be using. CB has never said they have two 200tph over last year (up to 400tph) so I think it’s reasonable to assume they are only using one 200tph plant (or have been last year).

If I’ve got this right, my calcs are:

Best Gold quarter 1800 troy oz = 55,986 grammes
= 18,662g a month
= 37,324 tonnes a month at 0.5g/t
= 187hours a month at 200tph
= 6hrs 15 mins a day for 30 days a month or 7 hrs 45 mins a day 6 days a week.

I am sure their plant would have been in operation for more hours than that, if so, it seems likely that we are not getting 0.5g/t (if more hours being worked - so lower grade to get to 1800 oz). In addition, uncharacteristically CB has not stated the assumed grade of 0.5 g/t which he did in the original contract. He must now have a good idea of the average grades and what is now reasonable to assume, but stating that, I suspect, would show that the average grades are less than the previously predicted 0.5 g/t. If we have been, so far, meeting prediction of 0.5g/t on average, why not now say this? Isn’t that good news?

Moreover, with 200tph 24/7 x 0.5g/t it would be reasonable to assume income levels would be millions of dollars a year for xtract and this would be excellent news. Why not state this? Probably because grades are not 0.5g/t. Some may say he made predictions before and got it wrong, so he is being more circumspect. But previously there were many unknowns. Not so much now. He now has a very large sample and a good idea what the average grades are over past 15 months and must be very confident of the min level of production hours (with one of the two 200tph plants acting as back-up).

Although I don’t think the income levels will be as high as some have suggested, with a minimum of 200tph x 24/7
(I assume new contract is 2 x 200tph plants so spare capacity for repair / maintenance ensuring 200tph is always met, 24/7) the income level, even with sub 0.5g/t grades, is highly likely to cover all group costs and all G&A. Probably a bit left over.

This IMHO is a big step forward as it gives CB time to do more deals from a relative position of strength and not keep watching the cash burn counting down to a possible placing. That risk has all gone now IMHO .

I’m still confident this will hit 4p to 6p in 2 or 3 years. In fact a little bit more confident after this deal than I was before it.

Teacup

You may be correct. I hope so.

Its good news and a move forward but I dont think the market will take it into account until we have actual increased income, not potential.

As CE has said, we;ve been here before, look what happened.

If it drops below 0.7 i'll be buying back what I sold today.

Mike

' Past recent history shows a quick spike on the Rns only to fall back just as fast.' Spot on.

Happens all the time and I always wish I'd sold into rise may times. Decided to take the risk this time and sell small % into rise.

Still confident this will come good so will be buying back at cheaper price - hopefully, unless I've just cocked-up!

I;ll know soon enough.

Tea Cup

Agreed. This is OK RNS but CB has quoted explorator figures. Ours are 50% of that. Our cust is only a bit better now than before. But it is better.

Income should now cover all group costs with 400tph so that's good news.

Its progress but small step forward. CB needs to show us the money and that means actual income being delivered not promises.

I've sold 1.5M into the very early rise, nearly all above 0.8p

My view and calc on this is....

From RNS updates:

Q4 2017 + 109
Q1 2018 - 17 as more sold than produced
Q2 2018 143
Q3 2018 202

Total 437 oz unsold

However, this is Explorator's total so assuming we get 50% cut (new deal) in theory there is now circa 218 oz for Xtract unsold at average sell price of $1000 to $1025 we have about $220K (approx).

I think the figure of $200K CB mentioned of unsold Gold at the June AGM would have been all of explorator value and not solely Xtract.

That's my view and understanding. Happy to be corrected.

He has previous in trying to imply explorator figures are xtract's.

Yes agreed, the Omnia HR deal would be more beneficial to the sp than good Q4 results, but my point was that we need good news (be it, good Q4 results, or more contractors, or Omnia HR deal.) to keep SP from dropping back

Even if its 'just' good Q4 results - the momentum should keep moving forward.

If we dont get any 'juicy' RNS and poor Q4 results we will be back to where we were last week (IMHO)

I've mentioned before CBs change in policy with Omnia HR. From, wait until we can process all mineralisation, to now lets go for quick wins and get some income. Maybe he needs income quicker now than due to cash burn?

As you have rightly pointed out many times before, CB has missed many self imposed targets and timescales so I'm not very confident we will get the news in Q1 re Omnia as promised. After all, he said we would have FB update by end of this year and new contractors in August - so he can't be trusted to stick to deadlines.

We'll see.

SP will only continue to recover if production figures keep improving (equivalent Q v Q). Disappointing Q4 figure will see this drop back to 0.6p to 0.7p very quickly.

Good Q4 and with news of more contractors or Omnia HR progress and we are above 1p and rising

Been here so long now, been disappointed so many times, so its all in hope now, rather then expectation.

(IMHO)

I've mentioned the discrepancy before between Gold produced and Gold sold in previous quarters. This is why the performance over the last year was not as bad as some said - if you look at production rather than gold sold.

That's why the main performance indicator in Q4 should be Gold produced, not income. We may have the best quarter of Gold sales but that may be because of the previous gold produced and could mask a very poor quarter of Gold produced. The better deal (50% of explorator share not 40%) will also artificially increase our income but not show the true improvement, or otherwise, of production performance. Obviously POG also has an affect.

We are now coming round to the second cycle so it will be interesting to compare like for like quarters (against production not income).

Last Q4 Total production = approx 1279 oz This was start-up and not full 13 weeks as started early Mid Oct

Best Quarter Total production = 1811 oz. Best weather conditions for the 12 month period.

What to expect? I would think Q4 will not be as good as our best quarter but much better than last Q4, so my expectation is 1650 to 1700 oz. Less than 1600oz would be disappointing (IMHO) and above 1700oz good. Anything above 1800oz would be very good (IMHO).

Others will have their own views but what is important is that total production is used as the main PI not income, as we could have one of our best income quarters and very bad production quarters due to previous gold sold.