Member Info for Andrew4444

H50

Maybe nexus are forcing the issue, as they have more to lose??

These sums are not insignificant. $900K for Nexus.

Not sure if we will see any of this money tbh. I certainly won't be expecting to see any of it. But who knows though.

and 25 June RNS...

Moz Gold has also made no payments in respect of previously announced historic performance penalties and accrued but unpaid run-of-mine payments and these remain due.

We may never get a penny of this money, but it seems that this what the ' amounts to be recovered' is about rather than Moz Gold plant.

Re this discussion earlier. Could this be the answer????

As already stated in recent RNS....

The parties have further agreed that the Company and Explorator will take all necessary steps to recover amounts owed by Moz Gold under the terms of the Moz Gold Agreement (entered into on 6 March 2018)

In that 6 March RNS..

To date Moz Gold has mined a total of 98,784 tonnes run-of-mine and has not met the agreed production targets set out in the June Agreement, and accordingly there are accrued penalties payable by Moz Gold for non-performance. Â As at 1 March 2018, Moz Gold owes in aggregate approximately US$1.5 million to Explorator, comprising US$1.3 million in respect of performance penalties, and a further US$0.2 million in respect of accrued but unpaid run-of-mine payments under the June Agreement (the "Moz Gold Indebtedness"). Payments of the Moz Gold Indebtedness are attributable as to 40% to Xtract and 60% to Nexus Capital Limited ("Nexus") under the alluvial collaboration agreement between Nexus and Xtract.

This makes more sense to me as being the 'recovery of monies' rather then the recovery being of the Moz Gold plant (as some have suggested) as I still can't see why we are trying to recover something (Moz Gold plant) that we already have control of. CB said a few times, that we may use Moz Gold plant for mining the terrace so he must think we now own that already. This was insurance against the original capital loan - not failed performance targets.

I may have got this wrong, but If I'm right, and if we can recover the money owed by Moz from penalties accrued, then we may have a nice unexpected windfall.

That's assuming I am right and assuming we can recover any of the money owed against penalties.

We'll see.

I could be wrong, but isn't this refereeing to the value of any Gold Moz did process?? Sino are processing circa $500K a month so Moz could have done at least $200k while they were there for a few months.

I don't see how this could refer to the Moz Gold plant as CB has said we have this so why do we need to take steps to recover something we already have control of?

As I say, I may be wrong but that is my understanding.

IWTO

The $1M + profit from non-FB HR may be small beer, but it would significantly re-rate the SP. CB implied at the investor show FB HR would produce profit of circa $4M a year assuming 20/80 JV.

IF (big IF), this happens I would think SP would be 2.5p to 3.5p on NON-FB HR profits and 6p-8p with assumed FB profits.

Whether some, all or any of this happens is the critical question.

And despite the certainty of some, no one knows if it will.

IWTO

I’ve also tried to estimate the profit from Omnia plant ex FB and come up with broadly similar figures as you. That said, I think $75K a month is probably on the low side and I was nearer $100K a month net profit but not too different. As you say there are so many assumptions its difficult to calculate. 1g/t may be on the low side.

Whatever the profit figures, IF this happens as implied and predicted by CB, then the sp will rerate.

The improvement in the alluvial deal equates to just $5K extra profit a month against Q3 figures or extra $10K a month against CB predicted alluvial level of 25KG to 50 KG a month (ave 37KG). We saw what that did to the SP - no doubt due to the very low MC.

So with all this fantastic news just around the corner why is the SP not significantly higher and nearer 3p? I would surmise its because this predicted HR news is from RNSs and from CB at presentations (investor show AGM etc) and we have been let down many many times before with broken promises and disappointing results. Its been shown before that we can't be 100% confident what is implied in an RNS will happen.

My feeling is the many are saying to CB – we dont trust you now so show us the money ! If this happens as CB has implied then the sp will rerate and buys will flood in. But it may take declared gold figures before that happens (not predictions)

I have no idea if it will happen as implied but my bet (and it is a bet) is that it probably will so happy to hold and add.

Not a rec to buy sell or hold. DYOR

Pie

You're mis-characterising what I posted. I didn't say 'the deals with the contractors were not so great.' What I actually said was...

Very good deal if alluvial Gold production substantially increases.

Not a good or bad deal if alluvial Gold production stays at current levels or is just slightly higher.

I never commented on how it would effect the sp so the fact that its risen does not prove me wrong. Its gone up as the MC is stupidly low and any news that could be taken as good would see a rise. Hence my jokey comment re CB Gold toot coming out and seeing the sp rise.

Also I profoundly disagree with your point .... 'However being skeptical has nothing to do with being let down many times before'

Its exactly why I'm sceptical !!

I took a break from this board as I like mature sensible debate, with balance. I've filtered many of the broken record's doom and gloom posters who added nothing to the debate. I've now had to filter a poster of the extreme opposite view who also add nothing (IMHO)!

Pie I think this will do well in the long run hence i've added more and now hold over 10M. But I will not hope all will be well if the facts dont support that view.

JDAU

Yes you are right, I havn't included any forward looking potential as it may not happen - and we have been let down many times before so its right to be be sceptical.

Sorry JDAU but you’re coming over as an excitable child who cant calm down as Christmas is coming ! Have some objective balance about the situation. You are the other side of the coin of those that refuse to see the great potential here (note I said potential only atm) and who keep repeating the same mantra over and over again.

JDAU

2p now because we have very little income and as Xtract group (not alluvilas) are making a loss.

You may want to price in the potential now but I'd rather be more cautious and wait for the potential to be realised then price it in now.

Jezzo

It depends if you think manica is really worth the amount we agreed to sell it for. If it is then in theory 6p + but IMHO I think fair value for what we have now is circa 2p.

If / when we ever get hard rock income then it may well be worth 6p+

I think the sp is way under valued but dont think it should be higher than 2p at the moment.

If Colin's gold tooth comes out I would think the sp would sharply move up at this current MC :)

AIMHO

Jezzo

Manica agreed sale was $17.5M = £13.7M

If you think MC should be manica sale price then I would think buying in now would be better than waiting for the rise.

AIMHO

Omnia 40kt per month I meant

IWTO

Having got my hopes up many times before, only for reality to be completely different to what was implied, I think its sensible to be cautious. My main point was, that for this deal to be very good we will need a substantial increase in alluvial gold. Another $20K a month income is not going to do much.

I have not said that we wont get more contractors or that the income wont significantly increase (it could do) but some are posting as if its inevitable.

Omnia HR plant 40k oz a MONTH not year. That is 50/50 deal and if that happens then sp will rerate.

JDAU

You may think that as night follows day alluvial Gold production will increase but CB has said a lot of things that have not happened so I'll rather wait until that actually happens before assuming it will. Further, as CB has said many many times alluvials are random and you find Gold where you find it. Increasing number of contractors doesnt guarantee increase Gold production - although it obviously makes it more likely.

I would guess there will be some increase in Gold production over next 12 months but unless this increase is substantial the new deal wont make that much different to the income levels.

JDAU Some friendly advice. If you were a little more cautious and circumspect with what you post you may not provoke the type of replies you get.

IMHO

JDAU

Have another read of my post !

In short 25% extra of alluvial income and profit.

By my calcs, under this new agreement, and If we had sold all the gold over the last 12 months, then Xtract profits would have been about $40K more, income $150K.

As the settlement fees, as part of this agreement, are $76K, Xtract will only make on this in 2 years assuming alluvial Gold production stays at this level.

Very good deal if alluvial Gold production substantially increases.

Not a good or bad deal if alluvial Gold production stays at current levels or is just slightly higher.

At least CB has managed to release an RNS without the sp sharply falling :) Well done Colin !

Teacup

My two central points: to make an informed judgement on alluvial performance (good or bad) you have to take into account Gold produced but not sold. Many keep saying Alluvials are not profitable and this is factually wrong when you look at the evidence (unsold Gold produced). It's clearly nonsense not to take into account alluvial Gold produced and not sold when looking at the alluvial performance. If we are just looking at declared income then we could be producing say 2000 oz a month and still, supposedly, the performance could be seen as being poor because we are making a loss by only selling a small % of the 2000 oz..

This leads on to the cash burn issue which many have said will mean a cash call in a few months. This ignores any declared alluvial income and all the undeclared gold sales ! At current income and cash burn levels CB has at least a year to sort this mess out. He may not do that in time, but he has more time then many would like others to believe.

You may accept all these points but many others are, and possibly deliberately, ignoring them.

If posters want to be critical of CB then I suggest posters should focus on the more credible and valid issues:

1. Not managed expectations and exaggerated likely outcome.
2. Consistently failed to deliver what was implied and when.
3. Near total lack of comms
4. Deliberately misleading comments ie (Moz Gold plant worth $4M at cost of $400K moz loan. $4M was the new build cost not current value)
5. Overseeing a sp collapse and saying.......nothing!

No doubt plenty more!

I stopped posting on this board as, understandably, there was a lot of emotional posts after big SP drop and IMO very little reasoned debate. Whether some think alluvial income figures are good or bad its worth taking into account of the Gold not sold. I’d rather have £100K of Gold in the bank then £100 cash in my pocket.

IF all Gold had been sold each quarter then Xtract Alluvial (not group) would have produced:

Q4 Income $132K Cost $101K = $31K Profit

Q1 Income $126K. Cost $107K = $19K Profit

Q2 Income $175K. Cost $126K = $49K Profit

Q3 Income $175K. Cost $117K = $58K Profit

Total income $608K Annual income

CB said at the AGM total Xtract TOTAL GROUP costs are $85K a month so Xtract (Group) is not making a profit but Xtract alluvial operations are…just. (IF ALL GOLD WAS SOLD)

Assume total group monthly total costs now higher at $90K. Assume alluvial income does not increase and stays at average of $50K a month as per last 12 months, then Xtract is losing $40K a month. Cash levels $1.28M 1 June (£1m). Deduct $200k+ for one –off expenses over next 12 months. $1M cash left to cover $50K monthly loss means Xtract will be out of cash by xmas next year. So I don’t agree with those that have said we will be out of money by Xmas this year.

So CB has a year, probably a bit longer as assumptions are on the pessimistic side, to get Hard Rock income (obviously non-FB) or increase alluvial income (more contractors is the only realistic way IMHO) .

I’m not suggesting he will or wont do that nor is this post a recommendation to buy or sell.

I’ll check in here again in Q1 to see if CB has managed to do anything he said he would (no laughing at the back there) or to see if the sp is below 0.5p or above 3p. I have no idea and despite what so many experts post on this board (+ve and –ve), I doubt if anyone has a clue either:) (Including CB) .

All the best and happy Xmas !

2600 kg is 83500 troy oz

That figure was calculated 12 years ago by a different company so imho has no relevance now.

I will be more than happy with circa 30,000 oz a year as per DFS.

The real question is, when will we ever start getting the Gold out of FB! !

JDAU

I don't agree with your premis that anyone has suggested, today anyway, that hes doing a crap job.

LW original post was in response to your comment re posters and hearsay, so he pointed out that not everything Bird tells us comes to fruition so that doesn't mean the original "guidance" by Bird was hearsay.

You've seen that as berating him but its a statement of fact. Just like many of the positives you rightly posted are a statement of fact.

It's all about balance and some could paint CB as a saint and saviour by focusing on the positives, and others could show him as untrustworthy or exaggerates the truth, by focusing on the negatives.