Member Info for Andrew4444

H50

Many thanks for the feed back. Much appreciate.

Question.

Did CB give any indication when the new contractor would start work on the Northern side?

Thoughts.

It looks like the reason we did not get the fantastic RNS in 2 - 6 weeks was because CB could not convince the Chinese to build the FB hard rock plant to our specifications to optimise all types of mineralisation. I thnk the Chinese wanted to go for quick wins and keep the plant simple. I wonder where negations are now and with who? CB may need to be pragmatic to secure a deal. So, why did CB even say 2-6 weeks when there was no guarantee this could be done. Yet again, not managing expectations.

A bit worrying that CB mentions the capex for FB and that he only prefers JV. This implies he has not ruled our going alone with FB plant. I think it would be a disaster for SP if he tried to do a placing to cover all or part of the $20M capex. He is danger of biting off more than he can chew if he goes down that route imho. Just do JV. 18%+ will see the sp rocket at that deal at this level.

CIB at circa $1M + means CB is not under pressure to agree any deal at any price. It now looks very likely that sino will, at the very least, cover all group costs so no cash burn to subsidise running costs. We are in a much better position than most AIM co.

Unless the facts change, I will be adding more at this level.

Final thought. CB doesn't understand why SP went down so much. Maybe I can help him there. It because he makes rash predictions / implications that don't happen as predicted, so shareholders and the market then lose confidence. ie 2-6 weeks fantastic RNS

not = know

Jezzoo

If it was really bad then those attending would have all sold out / reduced just after meeting. There was not a wave of selling yesterday afternoon. Nothing of note anyway and nothing to drop the sp.

Hopefully CB gave an update on Moz and we may not what current level of CIB is .

Hopefully!

Can anyone who went give update of what CB said?

Bat If he said that I would expect the sp to double...instantly.

Teacup But CB can't pull white rabbits out of the hat unless there are any. I think he will just front it out and take a kicking. Whatever he says tomorrow, no one will believe as he has lost all trust. The only thing that will move this sp higher (IMHO) is an RNS stating alluvial income is much higher in Q2, or an RNS stating we have hard rock agreement. Which I expect to happen from Mid July (alluvial) and hard rock over next 2 to 6 months. That's why I'm still here. Until then I see the SP staying broadly at this level.

H50 That's why I have been adding and had another nibble today. Of course I may be wrong, but risk reward, for me anyway, looks good. Others may disagree.

Teacup Bloody hell ! You seem a lot more positive than on Monday ! I hope you are right but sadly I don't expect any news on those issues for a while as, I think, negotiations have not gone as well as CB hoped. Positive spin is, he wants the best poss deal and will not agree to anything. I think next RNS will be in mid July with Q2 results. Other stuff much later. Hope I'm wrong and you are right. We'll see.

H50 Unfortunately I will not be able to attend. As you requested a few days ago, I have posted a few questions but dont know if you will have time to ask them. If you can't ask them all, the one I would like to know the answer to is current amount of cash in bank. Thanks

Bat CB is convinced VAR will change the decision. We will hear soon in 1 minute, or maybe 5 mins or an hour or possibly a month, but definitely by the end of the year...possibly. :)

LS I don't think CB is / was using anyone but I think he was stating what he hoped / wanted would happen rather than what was most likely to. I suspect we will get the same again on Friday. The problem in investing in shares is that its very emotional as it reflects the individuals judgement. Those that are heavily invested probably never want to think they could have made a terrible mistake, lost a lot of money and feel silly that that they have made an error. This is why some may only focus on the positives and filter out the negatives. They are trying to convince themselves it will all be fine, not mislead others. Those that sold out at a loss dont want to think they could have made a terrible mistake and should of averaged down or held. They only focus on the negatives. They are trying to convince themselves it won't all be fine, not mislead others. In short, like a football manager talking about the refs penalty decision - you see what you want to see.

Mike I may have misread your post. I read that your average was 2.5p. That may have been the price when you stopped buying.

Mike Unfortunately that's the nature of the beast in shares. Timing. Irrespective of what people's average is, if someone thinks the share price is likely to rise when news is announced, then buying at this level would be sensible (assuming they have the funds to) . They could ameliorate their losses even if they could not make an overall profit. Obviously assuming they think sp will rise on news. It may not. I still think that this has a reasonable chance of hitting circa 6p within 2 years - assuming CB can get the right deals. I'm not saying he will but it has the potential to (IMHO). I think you have a good chance of doubling your money here but it may take a year or two. I think many have sold as they now realise this is a slow burner and that they can make money quicker in other shares - and they are probably right. Anyhow, my main point was that this is not a basket case of a share, as some would have us believe, but still offers a good chance of profit at this level. Even if that profit doesnt cover all loses. That's not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Just my opinion. I could be wrong.

And... Even if CB agrees a terrible deal for Fair bride HR, and we only get say 10% cut, at this MC the sp would rise. SP is priced for zero alluvial income and no deal / zero income for FB hard rock and Omnia hard rock. Any sort of deal with any sort of income will see the sp rise at this level. CB may be rubbish at comms and managing expectations, but I don't believe that he wont make ANY progress in any of the three main revenue steams by Q4. And any slight progress or increased income will see the sp rise from this level. Question is, will it go up by 50% or 500%. All IMHO

Not enough for him to buy a new calculator.. I think figures of £100K a year were mentioned. I havnt seen any official confirmation of that though.

LS Covering cost is obviously fundamental to any co and this is where I think many are being too pessimistic. CE said that CB confirmed at the investor show that ALL co running costs were $85K a month. I think it highly likely that Sino will at least cover that on their own by Q4. If they don't then it may take $20K a month from Cash to keep the lights on. We have over $1M in the bank according to CB at investor show. Although its annoying paying Silberstein wages - I think CB has time on his side to get the right deal. I dont agree with those that say we will need a placing to keep going. I think by end of year the alluvial income will at least pay the costs.

I think we will get the good news CB promised, but as ever it wont be when he stated it would be. If only he would be more circumspect with his comments he wouldnt disappoint so many when he missed his timeline. I suspect the fantastic RNS was the FB hard rock agreement which he assumed / hoped he could announce in June. I suspect it will now be announced by end of year - as he has now implied in 30 May RNS. If only he had stated that at the investor show. He really doesn't help himself at times.

Teacup I know its frustrating seeing the sp tank but I think you would be more sanguine if you focused on the fundamentals rather than the sp. Sentiment is a massive driver of SP in Aim and that's why many shares will 2-5 bag in a couple of months for no reason - apart from sentiment which mean buys start which means higher sp which means greater sentiment so even more buys and the upward spiral starts all based on zero fundamentals. The reverse is true and I think that is what is happening here (IMHO). The herd mentality kicks-in - forget fundamentals, how can so many people be wrong??! Because they are all following each other (either by buying or selling). I think CB's inability to manage expectations, and infact ramp them up, has caused sentiment to turn when he has not delivered. But the fundamentals are still good and the news has not been terrible (ie increasing debt, reducing income etc) its just not been as CB has implied / predicted..... yet. I'm very frustrated in CB's comms but relaxed about the long terms prospects here as we have a great asset and good fundamentals - so I am buying at this level. All IMHO. Good luck with whatever you chose to do

Teacup I know its frustrating seeing the sp tank but I think you would be more sanguine if you focused on the fundamentals rather than the sp. Sentiment is a massive driver of SP in Aim and that's why many shares will 2-5 bag in a couple of months for no reason - apart from sentiment which mean buys start which means higher sp which means greater sentiment so even more buys and the upward spiral starts all based on zero fundamentals. The reverse is true and I think that is what is happening here (IMHO). The herd mentality kicks-in - forget fundamentals, how can so many people be wrong??! Because they are all following each other (either by buying or selling). I think CB's inability to manage expectations, and infact ramp them up, has caused sentiment to turn when he has not delivered. But the fundamentals are still good and the news has not been terrible (ie increasing debt, reducing income etc) its just not been as CB has implied / predicted..... yet. I'm very frustrated in CB's comms but relaxed about the long terms prospects here as we have a great asset and good fundamentals - so I am buying at this level. All IMHO. Good luck with whatever you chose to do

H50 Thanks for offering to take questions. Appreciated. If you are right and an RNS update is released next week, then some of these questions will be irrelevant. But if we don't get an RNS then these are my questions. What is current amount of cash in bank? When do you think you will have JV Fair bride agreement? Do you still think our cut will be 15% to 20%? How long after Fairbride JV agreement signed do you think we will get income? Are Moz Gold still trying to work the alluvials or have they left? If they are still here, when will they start to work the alluvials? If they have left, when will a replacement contractor start work?