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...............You see, every company Sefton touches is like a game of Simon Says. You know month on month your going to be mislead, but now and again they'll drop a more well thought out RNS like today that actually makes people believe and catches them out.

.......The biggest problem for me is that most everything the board promise never comes to fruition and usually turns out to be another attempt to get the volume up to give the fund another opportunity to rinse everyone.

Let's be honest with ourselves, they've pulled a blinder today, but what do you think the next few RNS's will be this evening, this week, whenever?

........This quote in the Telegraph is a real kick in the nuts for any AIM company given how people invest.

“I foresee an antibody test appearing before the end of the year."

Those sort of statements are enough to turn most AIM investors stale, especially after a mega placing IMO.

I would advise people to take seethree's advice and check my posting history. You'll note which companies I had reservations about while people were ramping them, and what's happened to them since.

If you check the thread you'll note the GSK deal was only part of what I was referring to. The Astra deal was the one related to the points I made in that post. If you'd read the thread properly you'd know that.

Nobody has corrected me. Please cite the sources as to where I've been deductively corrected.

I just read the article posted by Malcolm Stacey and it pretty much echoes my feelings currently along with what TW said. It seems a fairly balanced and reasonable assessment of the current situation here.

The cancer treatment is too far down the road to add any meaningful value to the company yet, so anyone thinking they can fall back on that if the covid angle goes wrong needs their head feeling IMO.

About 80% of the current valuation being attributed by the market to this company is because of the LFT IMO. With every day Avacta doesn't deliver the test and get it to market the risk goes up in multiples IMO. I disagree with Tom on the matter of the virus simply dying out over a few months, but everything else I sort of agree with him on. For me the risk is, competition from other companies in the diagnostic space, and a vaccine being released a lot sooner than people expect. The potential profit gets smaller as the permutations grow extensive through competition and development elsewhere IMO.

The point is if the LFT when/if it finally gets to market isn't in the sort of demand that is already priced into the SP then things could get very ugly indeed.

If Avacta had got the test to market in the timeframe they hinted at then they could have made mega bucks now before a potential vaccine arrived. As I said before, it was crucial for Avacta to get the LFT to market in July or by August at the absolute latest. The profits that are being lost with each week and months delay will be monumental if there is a solution or semi solution to the crisis beginning to emerge by the time they actually achieve something IMO.

I'd say the neutralising therapy is pretty specific to Covid and the unique way it binds and replicates. Not sure it has many applications beyond Covid.

The whole Affimer platform is still yet to achieve anything of any commercial value, that's what worries me. They've banged the drum for years about how good it is but they've still achieved nothing. If this platform makes it a quick and simple process of designing highly specific tests at break neck speed for all manner of diseases as Alastair keeps touting, then why is Avacta looking like the last company to the table. This virus has been going on for about 8 months now and Avacta has delivered nothing only promises and delays. They have numerous irons in the fire, but doing what? Since they rinsed investors, they've gone very quiet about timelines and progress and become notoriously vague.

Well RichKen, the speed Avacta is moving at the it seems unlikely the neutralising therapy will likely be to the table far too late. Yes indeed it said in the article that I read that Astra had an order of 100m doses for the UK. You do realise some people need more than one dose of a vaccine? So yes it's quite plausible they would order 100m doses. Common sense really.

In fact I'll post a quote from the article in case you don't believe me:

"Astrazeneca has an order of 100m doses of its coronavirus vaccine for the UK, and Soriot has committed to begin delivery in September."

The UK government has committed to take 100 million units of it regardless.

My apologies I meant to include Astrazeneca in my post. Astra, GSK and Oxford seem to all be doing a great job at the moment according to what I've read in the papers. Lets hope the vaccine comes sooner than later to put an end to this miserable illness.

.............Interesting developments with the vaccine GSK is producing. If the vaccine works and the clinical trials prove a success, it looks possible that we could see a vaccine distributed to the entire country and possibly over a quarter of the world by Autumn given they are producing billions of doses already. Very interesting indeed. The only UK diagnostics company to make any money out of the Covid crisis could well end up being NCYT.

AVCT has ultimately taken too long to deliver their test. As I mentioned a month or two ago, the big money that could have been accrued from the LFT hinged on them getting it to market by this month as they had previously hinted at in May. If the test doesn't get to market until September/October, then it could well be in very low demand by October/November if the vaccines have hit the market by then, IMO.

All food for thought. The early bird catches the worm and all that.

...........Looks decent value under £3 currently. Way ahead of the curve now in the testing space and more importantly generating revenue now, unlike AVCT which is extremely overvalued at this point in comparison. AVCT way behind in getting their test to market as they had originally promised. Can see the government investing a lot over the coming weeks in companies like NCYT which offer solutions this minute. Could be a decent few weeks ahead here.

A prototype isn't a finished product. Who said it was?

Data yes. We received first data instead almost a month later. Without a rudimentary prototype how would you expect them to compile any data. Pretty self-explanatory.

Jesus am I the only person who watched the finncap interview where he clearly stated End May/Early June, not "a few weeks" as others are trying to argue.

It's not working because I replaced the e in youtub* with a * to save it being blocked by LSE.

Finncap interview, Alastair stated prototype End of May/Early June. I just posted the link to it.

I've just backed up my claim HappyDays, so I hope it has been put to bed now.