Member Info for Alpha-dog

Certainly looks like good news for little SNG!

Not sure if this bears any relationship to Weichai or Ceres but fairly interesting
https://www.gizmochina.com/2023/04/10/1000-km-liquid-hydrogen-system-weishi-energy/

For clarity on dexa- harmful for those not on oxygen. Marginal benefit for those needing low flow oxygen. Biggest benefit for those on high flow oxygen or mechanical ventilation so overlaps a little with SNG. Rationale is early in infection it is viral replication phase and later immune “overdrive” phase. Immunosuppressant therapy, like anti-IL6 and dex work later, antivirals like paxlovid and mabs (all of which are out of action due to Covid immune evolution) work earlier. Synairgen is kind of in the middle- works a little later than paxlovid. Host directed antivirals have their place.
In case im accused of ramping- I’m still here and invested because this is my assessment of the evidence to date.

I don’t think this is directly competing with SNGs potential place in therapy. This is a late stage treatment for people on mechanical ventilation or ECMO. SNGs therapeutic window is likely a little earlier- breathless or needing oxygen.
They will have had a higher event rate in these sickest patients, hence some statistically significant results on a trial only slightly bigger than sprinter. Sprinter was grossly underpowered, with hindsight. Synairgen gambled on the shorter stay primary endpoint and that proved to be a mistake. We’re all wise with hindsight.
In many ways SNG remains a binary outcome. They’ll demonstrate efficacy - and signals strong over several P2 and 1 underpowered P3 - or disappear.

The media may be tired of reporting on Covid but it is still very much a problem.
624 deaths in week to 23rd March in England and Wales with Covid on death certificate, main cause in over 2/3 of those.
Excess mortality at 13% above 5year pre-pandemic average.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24march2023

Atanasof
https://highviewpower.com/news_announcement/uk-energy-security-undermined-by-lack-of-energy-storage-capabilities/
We already have an abundance of energy at times. As renewables ramped up this will increase exponentially……
Hydrogen has a big future though we may still be 2 years from hydrogen electrolysis companies break even. Sales ramp up generally is ahead of the most optimistic projections from 3 years ago and the big hike on SPs of hydrogen companies.
The big question is whether or not an individual company can deliver. If Ceres inks the deal with Bosch and Weichai there is a clear route to profitability. Not so sure though if for political reasons that falls through.

Just read the full results. This was not referring to ARDS- it was assessed separately and no signal of possible benefit for SNG. Apologies for last post possibly being misleading.

Both comments from Titania very relevant. Pulmonary embolism is a major complication of Covid and the increased risk persists for longer than initially thought- 6 months.
Respiratory distress is also very relevant. I’m not 100% sure but if this is adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) it is perhaps the most feared consequence of severe viral respiratory infections and for which there are no effective treatments, as far as I’m aware. Even mechanical ventilation is very difficult in ARDS. ARDS is probably the main infection related problem that ECMO is used for. For the non-médical amongst us ECMO is extra corporeal membrane oxygenation and there are only a small handful of centres on the UK. At the time many of us invested there was real fear that ECMO would be needed to treat severe Covid and that uk resources would be dwarfed.
Thanks Titania for posting this.

Don’t want to be pessimistic but the plan here is for offshore production of hydrogen. As far as I am aware plug and lhyfe are ahead in that niche with floating offshore electrolyser already trialled. Would love to be proven wrong though. ITM will come good though. Once supply side sorted and 10MW electrolyser scaled up in manufacture orders will come.?

https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/15/uk-spring-budget-government-trumpets-improved-tax-relief-scheme-for-rd-intensive-smes/amp/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJaVCagdzqORgiHtQI-_4lM5XNS4SFLhBKSPN4HdHiVcQWuzWZEqXmCgUiuQRj_OMcczLxaimnK2YY5yQLR5Nk0ptxgI9Cc8QYfAE30PJSl6TPnrm0lUz3kRXKE1F06C5mF67p1DTuxZejFH4LmKY8D1IfE9mYX5lxMbqRULeswu
It looks as if ceres power should qualify for the R&D tax credit announced yesterday. Could make a big difference in cash flow over next 3 years.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CWR/green-hydrogen-collaboration-with-bosch-and-linde-vgmf2fx7myqy1o0.html

Linde, like shell, exploring all the options.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/focus/china-taps-danish-technology-for-green-ammonia-project/2-1-1406429
Not ceres but a big vote of confidence in SOEC. Bosch and Weichai should get their skates on. The market won’t wait while they procrastinate!

https://www.kqed.org/news/11942172/should-everyone-be-trying-to-get-paxlovid-for-covid-now-yes-basically
Resistance can only be a matter of time.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00347-z
This is absolutely not a surprise.

Not certain if it qualifies as significant « complexity «  but in the multi drug platform trials eg STRIVE synairgen would be the only drug that required inhaled placebo for double blindness. Other oral agents have the potential to share placebo arms.

Docs post from yesterday is much better reading. Nice doc. I’m hoping you are right but in amongst the anecdotes the facts are not in dispute.

Apologies posted by accident while still writing. Not much interest currently in op trials though this could change
Second interesting possibility would be joint venture.!That appears to be less likely but nobody will know until after the event.
I suspect we won’t see the heady heights of pre-sprinter SP for a long time. God forbid but a turn for the worse with a new more pathogenic Covid variant or bird flu transmission human to human could change the dynamic substantially.

Near term hoping for one of two things
-getting on a p3 platform trial. Most here are hoping for an inpatient trial. I think a op trial in very high risk patients would play to our strengths but there isn’t much dynamism in that group

If I remember correctly Weichei and Bosch both bought their last tranche of ceres shares at circa £10.

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/The-Future-Is-Bright-For-Pink-Hydrogen.amp.html
EDF doing some calculations on pink hydrogen. Ceres could be right technology, right time.