Member Info for Alpha-dog

Interesting. Amazon have taken option for 16 million shares. First 9 million at just under $23 and then next 7million at 90% of weighted average of 30 days.
At first sight looks like plug giving away significant part of their company to secure the deal. In essence Amazon taking 3% stake ($480 million) at a 10-30% discount on a $2.1 billion deal. I suppose like all deals they both must see this as having something in it for them.
I too have plug shares also (interest declared). I think the model of electrolyser supply being tied to H2 supply agreement and possibly other supply agreements is very interesting and is something ITM and Linde could really learn from. Perhaps the Hydrogen train Linde H2 supply detailed in other thread is an example.
Hopefully more to come for ITM and greater scale. The relationships have already been established to facilitate this. It was these relationships that made me invest in ITM in the first place. I would like to see them bear more fruit.

Surely this will be ITM?
Linde sourcing green hydrogen locally in Lower Saxony within 3 years.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lower-saxony-ap-fleet-germany-berlin-b2151701.html?amp

Really, really interesting. Nice posts. The board functioning at its best- sharing relevant and interesting information.

Thanks doc. You spotted it re GoT.
Are the white walkers in Westminster?

There is a danger here that posters are being too short term. Winter is coming and as it approaches we will be in a different place. Covid is very unlikely to be disappearing and I suspect severity of impact on hospitals and sadly loved ones.
From synairgen perspective as investors we should be objective and look at what is known and expected.
We have completed phase 2 home trial and therapy appears very effective- nobody on SNG001 admitted to hospital. 6 on placebo.
In hospital all coming 30-40% RRR of death or critical care admission (NS), 70% RR (significant statistically) in a high risk subgroup.
By then we will have phase 2 results from ACTIV 2. We know these will be favourable because to pass to phase 3 we needed non-inferiority to regeneron which at that time had 70% RRR of hospital admission.
We expect to be on a platform trial and we expect phase 3 hospital trial to be peer reviewed and published.
Difficult to put a value on SP in these expected scenarios but it is unquestionably much higher than current. Hold firm. Winter is coming and covid isn’t going away. We are invested in a very promising therapy. Exciting times. Sound and growing science.

Sorry not £100K per month but 100k doses.

Prior to February RM was talking of manufacturing capability secured of £100 k per month. Should that be the case and even 50% top line profit and SNG would be worth a great deal more than currently.
Wishful thinking I know but these are the best figures I can come up with. Needs more evidence to support use/EUA/approval though.

Price not confirmed as far as I’m aware. Interferon is quite expensive though. Based on list price of interferon my back of the envelope calculation is 2k but with reasonable scale I suspect could come down significantly. I understand paxlovid is about £500 per course so I think these ball park figures are probably fair guesses. Paxlovid will be very easy and cheap to manufacture.

[201 Pages Report] The global green ammonia market size is projected to grow from USD 17 million in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 5,415 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 90.2% during the forecast period of 2021 to 2030.
Potentially huge market. Yara is also an important player and their link with itm in a 100mw project has the potential to lead to major orders. SP at present though doesn’t really reflect potential. It’s going to take firm orders to shift it significantly. It’s likely to be a slow burner. Hopefully we’re pretty much at the bottom. It would be good to see a GW scale order though.

Also need to remember that steroids are positively harmful if given too early. Most of the benefits of steroids are seen in those on mechanical ventilation, borderline mild benefit in those needing oxygen ie oxygen saturations <92% on air and possibly harmful in those not needing oxygen.
There is most definitely a major clinical need to trial SNG in the group - pre-mechanical ventilation for whom steroids of marginal benefit and possible harm.

Good find. Let’s see if RNS tomorrow. I think this strategy of tying green H2 supply to the H2 truck is very interesting while green H2 is in short supply.

Nice find. Positive news. This represents a deepening of the Doosan, ceres and shell relationship.

Yes. Numbers are for total number of patients so roughly 80% chance the study should pick up a 33% reduction in incidence of long covid.

Ive just done a quick power calculation on long covid. Assuming 30% incidencevpost hospitalisation- may be slight overestimate but in the ballpark. With this assumption we would need 586 subjects to have an 80% chance of picking up a 33% reduction in long covid incidence.
For me this neither makes me more nor less optimistic about getting some meaningful data out of the long covid assessments.
I think ACTIV2 data, inclusion on platform trial or statistically significant long covid data will be what moves SP from here. Your guess as to what will come first is as good as mine.

At the time of the “at home” trial results SHH said the golden period was those with breathlessness, pre hospitalisation. There is a definite window. Oral antivirals need to be taken within 5 days of symptom onset. SNG could well have it’s golden efficacy window starting from 5-10 days post onset. The key is knowing who is likely to deteriorate and therefore potentially benefit the most. That is where the breathlessness factor comes in possibly plus some other high risk characteristics.

There are an extraordinary number of long covid assessments in the study protocol.
One thing I am surprised about is that they didn’t take samples for bio markers. I recall this from previous chat. Perhaps someone can correct me if I’m wrong.
In academic studies it is pretty routine to do this but maybe not in commercial trials.

In my view this is a resignation offence. Any moves to start a petition to this effect?

ONS very good. Worth keeping an eye over the next couple of weeks.

United Kingdom coronavirus stats https://g.co/kgs/e3ZxGF
Reliable data difficult to come by but our world in data, which I think receives data feed from John Hopkins University suggests daily covid deaths rising fast to 350 per day.
I would consider this unverified as at present but if true represents a dramatic deterioration and there will be worse to come. For reference 100 deaths per day in uk is typical for bad flu season. This would be higher and rising faster than previous omicron peak.
Scotland have abandoned daily reporting of deaths and in fact only report deaths with death certification mentioning covid now, which means any data is 2-3 weeks out of date.
We remain in a fast moving covid landscape and sadly reliable data is becoming increasingly difficult to find.
PS not certain if link will work but easy enough to Google “ covid deaths uk” should take you ourworldindata

United Kingdom coronavirus stats https://g.co/kgs/e3ZxGF
Reliable data difficult to come by but our world in data, which I think receives data feed from John Hopkins University suggests daily covid deaths rising fast to 350 per day.
I would consider this unverified as at present but if true represents a dramatic deterioration and there will be worse to come. For reference 100 deaths per day in uk is typical for bad flu season. This would be higher and rising faster than previous omicron peak.
Scotland have abandoned daily reporting of deaths and in fact only report deaths with death certification mentioning covid now, which means any data is 2-3 weeks out of date.
We remain in a fast moving covid landscape and sadly reliable data is becoming increasingly difficult to find.