Member Info for Alpha-dog

Any ideas why ORIT SP is trading so low? 7% below a very conservative NAV? Green coat Uk wind SP is back to pre-Truss/Kwarteng levels and pretty much on NAV. It has a very similar structure but with a less diversified portfolio.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/eu-parliament-backs-pro-nuclear-definition-for-low-carbon-hydrogen/
Pink hydrogen being treated the same as green hydrogen by EU in definition of low carbon hydrogen. Grey hydrogen excluded. Good news for ceres whose SOEC technology is ideal for pink (nuclear derived electricity). Possibly some momentum for SP? Big positive would be confirmation of deals with Bosch and Weichai on favourable terms. That’s the plan -fingers crossed ??

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/linde-invest-18-bln-supply-clean-hydrogen-ocis-texas-plant-2023-02-06/
Not such good news for ITM. The big bucks at linde are going blue, rather than green. I’m completely against blue hydrogen; a global warming time bomb.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/nine-eu-members-want-low-carbon-hydrogen-included-in-blocs-renewables-goals/
If pink hydrogen gets the EU thumbs up this is a potential big boost for Ceres power. The SOEC high temperature electrolysis should be the natural first choice technology. Only 2 players in the SOEC game as far as I’m aware- Ceres and Bloom. If approved potentially huge in scale. France in particular have this as core direction of energy policy.

What happened to the 5MW stack which the comps received 9.3 million from the government to develop?
“ITM Power (AIM: ITM), the energy storage and clean fuel company, announces that the Company has been awarded a contract by The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), under its Net Zero Innovation Portfolio Low Carbon Hydrogen Supply 2 Competition, to accelerate the commercial deployment of ITM Power's 5 MW Gigastack platform and its manufacture. The award for the Gigatest project is for £9.3m and follows initial designs developed through previous BEIS funding competitions.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plug-power-scraps-electrolyser-plant-000731973.html
Plug have walked away from Fortescue in Australia. Opportunity for ITM ????

It is very good, particularly when one considers that 80% of the cost of green hydrogen is said to be the electricity.
The 25% more efficient, I believe, assumes recycling of heat. That makes it particularly useful when paired with a site that uses (or generates) a lot of heat, eg steel manufacturing or nuclear.
As far as I am aware major rival in SOEC is Bloom who boasted of the most efficient électrolyser in the world. They now appear to have a rival for that title.

Nice summary Bryosa. This is a potential paradigm shift in thinking about the threat respiratory viruses pose how to treat them. It’s going to take time and much repetition. Evidence needs to build further. Synairgen are definitely part of the story.

Face masks and homeworking again!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/consider-homeworking-face-masks-combat-new-omicron-sub-variant/

Eric Topol is a big and extremely influential figure on both sides of the Atlantic. Interesting….,

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid19-new-variant-transmissible-immune-evasive-fatal-says-top-scientist/amp-11672730358254.html
Eric Fiegel Ding is a genuine authority with a pretty good track record of correct calls on covid. He’s worried about XBB.1.5.

That’s a balanced and well evidenced article from Prof Andrew Pollard.
Thanks Prion and merry Christmas ????

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00383-X/fulltext
I can’t recall if I posted this already. This paper from earlier this year shows problems of confection. It was 8% of covid then. With social mixing and flu/rsv virus circulating widely will be a much bigger problem now.
This is unique SNG territory and explains the study initiated a couple of months ago to look at just how common and serious a problem this is. Speaking from observation I think it is now huge. I’m more convinced than ever that we are ideal for STRIVE or something similar. I suspect share price won’t return to pre feb levels until we have a product with approval. It’s much needed so hopefully not too long!

SNG has potential like no other therapy to treat viral con’-infections. Thizz so paper from the lancet suggests it relatively common and more severe.

Tommy- hospitalisation worldwide is rising again. Off the radar in uk but in Scotland covid back around or maybe now above the 1000 mark (40% rise from 650 in 2 weeks) without major evidence of big rise in community infections so possibly something changing to make the situation worse. I suspect more immune evasive variant rather than more severe. ICU cases still pretty low which is a good marker of severity.
It’s a fast moving environment and a very difficult one to plan and execute a clinical trial.
For SNG I would say lots of evidence of efficacy both in and out of hospital but just not quite at the level needed to get over regulatory line. My optimistic self would say that being on the wings of several platform trials might be exactly the right position- if covid worsens they should be very quick to start. My pessimistic self says not on is nowhere. I can’t escape the view that the world needs a therapy like SNG and that is why I’m holding. Might even top up if further drops.

The molnupavir lancet article worth a read. Size of trial was enormous (25000 participants)- in omicron and vaccination era that is the size of trial needed. 1% hospitalisation rate amongst those at relatively high risk -50+ with relavent co-morbidity. No effect of molnupavir on hospitalisation.
It’s pretty clear that halting ACTIV2 p3 was correct decision in the early omicron era of covid. Unless there is a more severe variant I don’t think anyone will be rushing to do an admission avoidance trial of SNG or any other drug.

Best wishes Doc and delighted your mum and dad are pulling through. It is of concern that it appears to have been so difficult and required so much perseverance on your part to access paxlovid. Data are good if starting within 5 days of symptoms. I think SNG would give a larger pre-hospitalisation time window. I don’t think we have any data in immune compromised. It’s host directed so may need competent immune system for best response. We still need that P3 ….. aaaarrrggghh

RNS on 4th October covered this. Borderline statistically significant (p=0.07). Great result given this was phase 2 and not powered to give any statistically significant results. It was the basis for progression to P3 which was stopped because omicron was milder and not causing high enough hospitalisation rate for the study to be progressed with numbers planned.

There is a legal and general Hydrogen focussed ETF that might allow some spread and risk reduction. It has investments in both large companies for whom hydrogen is but one strand of business and smaller companies where the risk is much higher.

Nice post trinityman. I’m in your camp but certainly not against contrary views being expressed provided it is with civility.
Good will to all.