Member Info for aligator

It is logical and inevitable that boards such as this will have different views. That's what makes them interesting. However, it is frankly boring witnessing two or more posters being at each other throats and, in my view, a waste of time trying to sift out the more grounded comments from those that are not.

I missed this. Can anyone please provide a link or reference so that I can catch up?

Monkey, I am not showing an RNS today? Have I missed something?

Hi GG, Hopefully 25p will become the next glass ceiling, followed by 30p in relatively short order, 35p as we near first gas and 40p plus when gas hits Bacton. I continue to view 50p plus as feasible as little value has been attributed to phase 2 of the core project or other new asset plays, with possibly BH playing 50% partner and funding such investments through CalE. With regards to a possible takeover bid, I now view this prospect as decreasing as we near first gas simply because of BH's existence and recent discussions with IOG. What mid/large cap competitor would really want to try and take on BH in a money match - could be a complete waste of time and money?

Hi GG, Interesting to see an initial slide in the sp and then a modest recovery. Still risk involved in transporting and installing the topsides (and completing the production wells, etc) but, bit by bit, the whole core project is being de-risked.
At some stage the sp will have to start to reflect the acknowledged npv of gas reserves. Given historical performance, I would imagine that 25p then 30p could become interim market glass ceilings before moving to 40p and beyond. As I wrote in my 20 April post, Market Beat estimates 42p but I feel this does not value the company much beyond the Core 1 project and, as the Core 2 project is announced, together with other asset developments, the sp could drift through 50p.
Ok, perhaps wishful thinking on my part but there is an element of logic in the numbers.

Trek, Don't be totally dismissive. This route of networking can be valuable - so long as it can be accommodated by PB among his principal responsibilities with TXP. Firstly, it underpins his name in the industry and, secondly, exposes him to not only industry leaders but also the financiers etc behind them. Thirdly, it provides him with the greater prospect of uncovering buy/sell opportunities.
At the end of the day it is just an advisory role and should not pin PB down unduly.

Smasher, No doubt you, like me, are aware that, sadly, "the market", both in the UK and Canada, does not reflect the logical ups and downs based on buy/sell volume by investors nor truly reflect the inherent proven value of a company in the SP. The reality is that smaller markets like AIM and TXP are effectively controlled by MM's and II's whose trading is designed purely to maximise return. They are not wholly interested in the fortunes of a company but have such buying power that they are able to control (ok, manipulate) a so either way to suit their book. I have seen companies, which should have survived, taken to the wall by these institutions - they simply are just in it for profit.
Equally sadly is that the regulators both sides of the Atlantic just allow this to go unchecked. I have written to the LSE several times but either been ignored or told that, for example, "shorting" a stock, as I believed happened after the Chinook/Cascadura RNS on 31 March and saw the sp almost halve, is not considered "manipulation" unless such trading can be proven to be the result of the leak of inside information. So , in essence, the MM's and II's just prowl these markets looking for opportunities.

Apologies. Presentation is indeed on 29 April. My error.

PB is going to have be at his absolute best tomorrow evening or the share price is going to slip back to the 80's again or even further. The market is now wary of predictions and promises versus reality from TXP and it matters not that glory appears to be on the near horizon as any subsequent announcements perceived negatively by the MM's and II's will be swiftly and harshly reflected in the sp.
Exploring and developing hydrocarbons is fraught with risk and seeking frequent updates on such activities can often have a detrimental effect as we saw with the last announcement.
Fingers crossed that PB nails it in his presentation.

LuckCounts, Totally agree with your post. Just doing the maths, based on the price for Zennor to be paid by NEO, would value TXP's 65mn 2p reserves (excluding Cascadura and other locations) at ca $1,016 or £721mn. With 209.4 mn shares in issue this would suggest a share price of ca £3.40, more than 3 times the current figure. Further, Zennor's assets are subsea, not the easy access assets in TXP's portfolio.
Clearly, the market has penalised TXP for recent announcements, etc but logic would dictate that the sp is currently vastly undervalued.
If I have misread or misinterpreted figures in the view of other posters happy to be corrected.

as we wait for first gas and, logically, a climb in the share price. MarketBeat suggests 42p as the next ceiling, which would be an almost doubling of the current price. At this price, the market cap would double to £200m. However, a review of the many NPV figures generated for the core project phase 1 over the last couple of years, suggests that IOG's 50% will be at least £250m, which should, in theory, push the sp to 52p and beyond, not least underpinned by commencement of phase 2 of the core project (Goddard, Nailsworth and Elland).
Just my musings and, as always, open to responses positive or negative.

GG, thanks for the endorsement and technical reaffirmation. As an ex-banker with non-recourse o&g lending experience, I had to become familiar with the technical aspects of the industry but am by no way able an expert, so rely on posters like yourself for the good and the bad in that respect. My experience is in spreadsheets and risk analysis which has been useful in this situation, albeit you cannot predict collapses like that which befell LCF.
Notwithstanding, here we are now on the verge of first gas and one would hope to see a urther uptick in the share price when announced. Meanwhile, reading between the lines, I am forming the impression that the company is looking to more interaction with CalEnergy, benefitting from the almost bottomless chequebook of Berkshire Hathaway.

Lemming, Not sure if you are fully aware of IOG's history over the past couple of years but, in a nutshell, the company tied up with London Oil & Gas and benefitted from sizeable investment before LOG and its parent, LCF, collapsed, leaving a massive rights overhang in respect of IOG shares. Frankly, at the time, things looked very bleak but the BoD somehow managed to pull the iron from the fire by then selling the core project story to Berkshire Hathaway, who subsequently bought 50% of the core project and invested additional loans via CalEnergy to get it to first gas. Nerve wracking times but much has progressed since then with the core project itself becoming derisked as each week/month went by and here we are now drilling the first production well, hence the uptick in sp.
Some of the LTH's on this board have been invested since IOG was floated (including me) so development over the past week are sweet music to our ears!
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Peak, I am aligned with your thinking and, as you say, pleased to see LO sell a sizeable slug of shares without impact on the sp. I have not always been a "supporter"of the BoD and have had some harsh views of certain historical decisions/actions but I would like to think it is conscious of the industry and market experience of those who post on these boards, save for those pessimists and derampers whose attempts to destabilise the sp are simply too obvious..

Peak, while delighted with events and the upward movement in the sp, I am not sure I am able to share your view that the more influential pressure on the sp is being exerted by PIs. History has shown time and time again that, with companies like IOG on AIM, both the II's or MM's are almost in complete control of the destiny of the sp - the reality being that their spending power is of the volume that can seriously shift, one way or another, the market cap of smaller companies. It doesn't really happen on the main board simply because market caps there are so much larger. One would think that the regulatory authorities would take a hard look at this situation but, to my knowledge, it continues unchecked.
I am also a holder in TXP which announced a less than predicted result from one well (compared to sizeable reserves already being confirmed in other areas) which saw the sp collapse by 50% at one stage - so totally overdone given the fact that over 20 more wells are still to be drilled on various discoveries - suggesting a substantial short-selling exercise by the MMs. It is recovering now on the back of more positive announcements but is still considerably below its starting point.

trading at almost 1.18 at this moment.

davidblack, "My god this is huge" would be very nice but, nonetheless, hopefully the 80's are now firmly behind us!

This would hopefully stimulate a nice uptick for the SP.

GG, Agree. From a potential acquirer's perspective, it is the point at which the two graph lines of risk and reward cross, i.e. bid sooner at a lower price or later at a higher price.
I am also happy to wait (been in here since 2013). As you say, a win win scenario even if the numbers are no longer as big as they were 2 plus years ago. That said, how delightful it would be to have at least two bidders!

GG, Let's hope so. I have long held the thought that the appropriate time for a bid would be during the development stage, specifically the drilling of production wells, as, by this time, the core project has been derisked significantly. That said, it is the antics of the MM's which causes me most concern, as they can effectively manipulate prices to suit their books.
Trust you are well.