Member Info for aligator

Photo, I am struggling to find any post by you since 14 Jan (PB's presentation) which predicted a 15p price drop. Indeed, all your posts for the next few days were extremely positive about PB and TXP. If you really did feel that a 15p dip was possible why only talk to friends about it rather than post on this board? Hindsight is wonderful isn't it, particularly when no one can question your offline comments.

are not exactly challenging! 12.5% compound over 3 years is ca 10% per annum - a relative doddle when you are about to bring a gas field into production.
This is about the most self-serving announcement from this board in a long time and will not sit well with frustrated lth's who have watched their equity steadily diluted over the last 5 years or so.
When you reward employees with options it is usually for exceptional performance - i.e. above and beyond what would have been expected in the normal course of events. What we have here is the employees enriching themselves for just doing their jobs.
I personally think this is shameful.

closed at C$2.53 yesterday which is ca £1.47, so market softness this morning is not unexpected. That said, there is still selling going on in a downward market which is not encouraging. Hopefully, someone is coming close to the end of their disposal/profit thing programme.

Does today's RNS put some clarity into the large trades yesterday? Edale reduced its holding by 0.46% which, based on ca 350 million shares in issue, is about 1.75 million shares, which ties with yesterday's data. I am no expert on the markets so would appreciate comments.

I posed this question to TXP via email this morning - "As you are aware, penalty clauses have been gradually disappearing from major construction and trade contracts over the years as legal experts have increasingly opined that some clauses were probably incapable of being pursued in a court of law. The concern for me and many other private investors is what rights does NGC have to either delay, frustrate or even cancel the contract or, put the other way, what protection does TXP have in the contract to avoid these events?"
Answer received just minutes ago - "We are bound by the None Disclosure Agreement (“NDA”) but we can assure the shareholders we used a world renowned natural gas lawyer to advise us on this contract and that matter is dealt with."
Note the words "assure" and "that matter is dealt with."
Given that a top flight lawyer represented TXP's interests in the negotiations, I feel a little more comforted on this issue but others may have different views.

Brighty
Any idea whether buy or sell?

I made a point of (trying to) ignore all the positive information in Paul Baay's presentation last evening and just focus on his body language and the tone of his voice. I have to say that I got the impression that he is simply chomping at the bit (excuse the pun) to get even more incredible news out into the market but clearly unable to do so until individual items have been proved up, etc.
His comments on the Cretaceous prospect were not lost on me and it is evident that he and his colleagues are quite optimistic of finding yet another substantial play.
I was also hugely encouraged with his answer to the question of what risks are involved in bringing the gas to market. He said it was merely time.
Like other posters, I am continuing to add at these current prices as I can see the sp going through £2 shortly and heading towards £3 and above as developments progress. Where's the zenith - who knows? However, based on the known data and recovering prices, one could speculate that the sp will be in double figure £ within the next 18 months.

Mole, the £500m figure was put out a year or so ago but I cannot recall when. However, in my view, it is not overly optimistic based on what is contained in IOG's website.
The 37p consensus rate was sourced via a broker website today.
In broad terms, I think a price range in the run up to first gas will be 25-40p with 35-45 in the weeks before. What could blow this all apart is an industry offer for the company but the LOG may well put off potential suitors.

gives a market cap of less than £80m compared to a core project npv of ca £500m. Of course, 50% of this goes to CalE but, even based on £200-250m and ignoring all other issues (including LOG), the sp should logically rise to 40-50p. Current analyst's consensus price is 37p which somewhat underpins this valuation, particularly if gas prices continue their recovery.
At 40p, this would represent an almost 250% increase from the current price. surely this will soon catch the attention of the big boys?

Derisked, enormous discoveries, enormous upside, long term government supply contract. One of the most promising shares I have ever come across and at 169p still an absolute bargain. I started buying at 16p and am still adding. The sp should pass through £3 with ease and £5 in due course (2021?). And, as other posters note, with so many private shareholders, any company wanting to bid for TXP will have to add a very healthy premium in order to succeed.

TXP is simply a de-risked no-brainer and even at 169p is a very strong buy. I bought from 16p to 120p (just before Christmas when, for some reason, the sp dropped from 135p to 120p) and am now sitting a large six figure holding at an average price of 60p. I am no expert on the markets but can see this hitting £3 within a few months and £5 as more progress is made on other assets. I will continue to buy as cash becomes available.
As several other posters have commented, this is by far and away the most amazing investment opportunity I have encountered in over 4 decades of investing.
It is just so difficult to identify any risk which could undermine the sp's progress, absent a further twist in the covid19 story which had the world under total lockdown or similar.
I am delighted for all lth's who have shown patience and trust in PB and his colleagues - but I feel the sp has a lot more to achieve. So am a little surprised at those who are cashing out at these levels.

Peak, well done. I would have joined you but i am focused on TXP at the moment, which has enjoyed truly monumental success in its Trinidad gas drilling programme in 2020 with more to come in 2021 and beyond. I initially bought shares at 9p (now 127p) but my average price has moved up (now ca 60p) as I have bought more and more. Data would suggest that the sp could double in 2021, if not more, so there is still time to become profitably involved with this company. I have more than 50% of my portfolio invested here which is against my better judgement but the downside in Trinidad looks even less than in IOG.
Happy Christmas to all and here's hoping 2021 is a darn sight better than the last 12 months and that the IOG sp finally reflects full value.

Yesterday's drop is difficult to comprehend and, once again, highlights the dangers of trading on AIM, where the market is so much more open to manipulation than the main board. Perhaps a contributor from Toronto can comment on experience with that exchange?
If investors did panic and sell out as the price slid, I would be surprised, as the known facts here, including a long term gas sales agreement with NGC, support an sp considerably above 127p. Based on this, I took the opportunity to top up at 116p and am already showing a healthy profit on this tranche.
This sp is due a substantial uptick shortly and perhaps 150p is the next milestone. I will however be happy with a gradual increase towards 200p in 2021. That said, will the company commence production as an independent entity or will it have been bought by a major? I would certainly love to see a bidding war between 2 or 3 bidders!

MALBRAD, Given recent statements by the company about "world class" discoveries, what would you expect shareholders to talk about on these boards - the weather, the economic status of Mongolia, etc?
The reality is that this company has an incredible future, both short term and long term, so why wouldn't shareholders want to swap views on share price potential etc?
Or have I misconstrued your post?

Can someone with expertise in this market please explain how such positive news can result in the sp going backwards. This is not just silly, it simply defies market logic.

Smasher
See my earlier posting on exactly this issue. As I type this, the sp is slipping south on the back of simply ground-shaking news about the NGC contract. What concerns me is that some investors/posters seem to feel that this is to be expected. That, frankly, is illogical - this sp should logically be approaching £1.50 with the benefit of a multi billion revenue generating contract. If this is not market manipulation by institutions, funds, market makers etc I don't know what is!

Time and time again on AIM I come across situations like these where very positive information, if not ground changing news, is seemingly ignored. Yes, one could argue that the expectation of the NGC announcement had been factored into the share price. However, in this case, we have a company with a current mcap of a few hundred million which has just signed a very long term gas supply agreement with a state owned entity worth, per the RNS, "billions of dollars". Just on an NPV basis this would value TXP at multiples of the current figure yet the share price has in no way reflected this scenario.
I know that this market is heavily influenced by II's and MM's but, in the case of TXP this is becoming slightly worrying.

KingSuarez

Many thanks.

What are the timings of next announcements from the company? That is, what wells are currently being drilled, etc? I have lost track a little having been off this board for a few weeks.

regarding the appointment of a new COO to replace Mark Hughes who stepped down on 11 November. The original inference was that Mark's departure (for health reasons) was unplanned and unexpected and I wish him all the best for the future. That said, given the mid-term development process of the phase 1 project, I would hope that appointing a replacement is the BoD's focus right now.