Member Info for aligator

hit 132p on little trading. No RNS so interesting to know what prompted this spike.

Nothing from the company about a replacement for Mark Hughes, whose retirement for health reasons was announced early November. Given the critical role played by a COO during the development phase in which IOG is currently embroiled, I am a little concerned that, since there has been no announcement, a replacement has not been found.
I will say again that the Board of this company need to become much more interactive with its shareholders.

The Buffoon/davidblack, I understand your pessimism but would add that this information was apparently substantiated as a result of a subsequent review of corporate jet arrivals at YYC over the past few months which evidenced that at least two tail numbers were registered with major producers. As for PB and his team working from home throughout the last few months, I personally doubt that, given the enormous significance of what is happening down in Trinidad.

Corpse, If your wife is happy and smiling and able to retire on the proceeds of £500 of shares bought at 20p, does she have any mates you could introduce me to? Given my past two divorces, this was small change to my ex-wives!

Announcements of a sudden departure such as this, with no successor even identified, could suggest that Mark faces challenges relating to his own health and well-being or that of his family. I sincerely hope that is not the case but my thanks to Mark for what he has achieved for IOG and my sincerest best wishes to him for the future.

Peak, Can't say I understand the reasons behind the upwards movement but it's welcome nonetheless. We all know that AIM is as leaky as a sieve so could be that something is in the pipeline (excuse the pun). Perhaps the Company has reached some form of agreement with the LOG administrator or another Deltic type acquisition is being considered? All supposed to be confidential until divulged to the market but we all know the score with AIM.
It will be interesting to see if the sp continues its move north today.

this share is like supporting Spurs - frustrating and never being sure what it is going to do on the day!

ps Can anyone explain why the board was red yesterday? Why would sh sell at these prices (average ca 11.8p) when the sp could be multiples of this figure in a few months?

Are we due for an operational update shortly? Last one was 31 July and, while Deltic occupied a lot of RNS posts in the interim, there has been little produced since then, save for the platform contract announcement.
This is a solid BoD, which has achieved much over the past 18 months, but it just does not comprehend the value of keeping the market and shareholders updated with regular announcements. Given the nature of the core project and all the constituent parts that make up the development, it cannot be beyond the wit of those on the board to produce regular updates.

I have read various messages about a possible placing but cannot correlate this with the company's present funding position. That is, it has existing loans with undrawn capacity and banks that are clearly supportive of increasing the loan amount based on proven reserves and predicted production. In addition, it has the prospect of near term cashflow which can also be used to fund ongoing expenditure.
As I said before, PB and his colleagues will be doing everything they can to avoid raising further equity and diluting sp value.

It has to be the case that the BoD and senior management of TXP also want to avoid further dilution of equity so the questions are i) how much undrawn loan finance is available and ii) can banks be persuaded to provide new/increased loans based solely on the proved reserves and forecast production. As an ex-project banker I would ordinarily say absolutely, but these are not ordinary times and the banking sector as a whole has pulled the shutters down on lending generally. That said, hopefully PB, has a good enough reputation with US and Canadian banks to convince them that this is a no brainer lending proposition.
Notwithstanding, today's sp movements make little sense given the limited trading volume - anyone got any thoughts?

Just goes to show how manipulated and rotten AIM is. This is a company with an NAV which is multiples of its market cap. Even the core project, which has been substantially de-risked, has an NPV of ca 3x the current sp, suggesting towards 40p on this alone It seems to me that when the rerate comes, and it is an issue of when not if, it will not necessarily be the result of some IOG achievement or milestone but rather the decision of the MM's/II's. In that regard, the activities of Lombard Odier should be a focus as it has a history in such matters, not necessarily friendly to private investors.

1. The company has sufficient funding for immediate expenditure, including current wells.
2. Lenders will no doubt be happy to increase loans to accommodate further drilling - if required.
3. However, cash flow from new production will provide new funding source and will quickly repay existing debt.
4. The company has more exciting prospects to drill with not just upside potential but significant upside potential.
5. PB and his team have so far done an absolutely tremendous, professional job in developing the company to this stage.
6. Gas will be a global foundation energy supply for decades to come.
I continue to build my holding, which commenced at 16p, and believe that the company is still substantially undervalued. I would predict that 200p will eventually be just a milestone as the value of the company reaches its logical peak. As always with these companies though, the question will be if it reaches these heights as an independent concern or is gobbled up by one of the majors.

Interesting post which, by coincidence, underscores my calculations - i.e current market cap ca 25% of NPV suggesting sp could increase 4 fold to around 48-50p. As you say 30-40p range is probably the minimum LOG's administrators would consider selling at, so 48-50p is feasible in this scenario, not least if gas prices start to rise in the interim period to first gas.

Historic figures for the core project have ranged $500-600m. 50% of that (other 50% to CalE/BH) is $250-300m = £192-230m plus another, say, £50m for other assets, pipeline, etc = £242-280m. Current market cap is ca £65m - approximately 25% of the NPV of what is due to be produced in the future.
Of course, all these numbers are rough/broad based but the discrepancy is deafening.

MajorT, I don't necessarily disagree (although I do think AIM in general is a manipulated market) but what explanation would you put on the level of the sp, given the proven NPV etc? We are not talking about a minor gap between NPV and market cap - this is a chasm. My calculations are rough and ready but, even so, they reflect a major differential.
I am not an investment specialist but this simply has no logic.

Exactly my thought this morning Peakview when I saw the minuscule sale. However, was it actually a sale - we know how screwed this website is?
Have to say I am completely out of explanations as to how and why the sp is where it is. Yes, the LOG overhang is a factor but, let's be factual, first gas is less than 12 months away and the NPV v market cap numbers just don't correlate to any degree whatsoever - we are talking a differential of between 4-5x. Either a legion of knowledgeable/experienced investors (including us) are calling this wrong or this is a classic example of third parties' ability to manipulate an sp.

Will seek to acquire a few more at this level, even if it is above my average price.

Trellis, You make a good point. However, if I was the LOG administrator I think I would be willing to hang in until first gas or until the share price started to reflect what I considered adequate value. That said, it cannot be beyond the knowledge of experts to come up with a couple of options.
I also believe that the SP is heavily influenced by the MMs and therefore an LOG solution might not necessarily solve the problem of the SP remaining significantly undervalued. This is a company with an NPV (core project, secondary licences, pipeline, etc) at multiples of its market cap (currently £64m). Broker estimates range up to 40p per share, which equates to ca3x increase from the current price or a market cap of ca £190m. In my opinion this figure would still not reflect the full NAV of the company's assets so I am thinking that, in the right market, with LOG out of the picture and the MMs wanting then to see full value, we could see an sp between 50-65p, maybe even higher.
All my own ramblings of course!

Just bought another 38,400 and probably now over concentrated in this stock but, I have been a shareholder for a very long time and continue to believe the story of the core project, the endorsement/investment by CalE/BH and the subscription for rights shares by company management (who would invest if there was any doubt about the future?).
The question nonetheless remains in my mind - will IOG reach first gas as an independent company or as a subsidiary/division of major? I know we would all love a bidding war for the company!