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Been "off piste" for a couple of weeks and somewhat alarmed at the SP given the platform installation confirmations etc. The market cap of the company is ca £100m versus its 50% share of the NPV of the core project (ca £250m). And that does not include any value for IOG's other assets, etc! The lack of volume is not helping either but can't help but think that the sp is being held at this level by the MMs for reasons beyond me. To my mind, this should be 25-30p at this time and creeping towards 45-50p with first gas.

Druid, you challenged Monkey who has responded, somewhat incredibly. Now what are your thoughts?
As for road works, whatever happened to heavy equipment, etc? The video reminds me of the question, how many people does it take to dig a hole.
What continues to concern me is the company's somewhat woeful press strategy.

While I agree that the markets are looking for facts and results, this SP nonetheless also remains at the mercy of MM's and, to a degree, II's. I have never understood how the regulators of the markets can sit idly by and watch a company's value, and therefore its SP, be heavily influenced and, indeed, manipulated by these entities as a result of shorting stock and other similar antics. There have been historical incidences where companies have been brought close to insolvency as a result of being unable to secure liquidity through debt or equity raising because their declining SP has implied serious financial problems. Private investors are entirely at the mercy of such behaviour and we have already experienced this in the last month or so with TXP which saw the company lose almost half its market cap because of a poorly worded RNS.

Current mcap is ca US$280m. According to published data, Cascadura 1P reserves alone are worth US$288m, 2P US$519m and 3P US803m. So the current sp is just about reflecting one of TXP's various discoveries.
This sp is seriously undervalued and those investors with the liquidity and patience will be excellently rewarded during the course of the next 12-18 months during which, with positive news on all fronts and gas flowing, the sp should climb beyond its previous high and through £2. Frankly, should all existing discoveries eventually produce, the sp could be multiples of £2.

AGS' decision to opt for shares rather than cash as payment for the 2D seismic survey it recently completed for HE1 could not be a more positive a statement in relation to what it discovered. In essence this is inside information being released to the market.

MMs up to their usual tricks by drip drip selling to keep the sp sedated for some reason. This company is massively undervalued and with Cascadura now confirmed and the known prospects of just Coho, Chinnook and Royston to be proved in the short/medium term, the sp should already be back around its previous high of 170-180p and heading north.
I agree with those who feel we could be looking at multiples of the current sp within 12 months.

Stockopedia comments that, at 22.5p, sp is trading at a 54.27% discount to analysts' consensus target price of 48.68p. I think this basically ties with the thinking/predictions of many posters but hope that, at the point of first gas, the company will have a broader future story than that just of the core project which will drive the sp through 50p and beyond. This is when it will get interesting and BH may well have made its intentions clear at that point, adding to the upward pressure on the sp.

SP will not be helped by IEA proposal that there should be no new gas fired boilers after 2025 in order to hit zero carbon targets by 2050. Of course, the vast majority of the UK heating/hot water market continues to rely on gas so the impact of this announcement on gas prices should not be dramatic.
Interestingly the IEA announcement does not comment on oil or oil based power?

OilMan1984, Your thinking is logical but I suspect the huge presence of BH behind CalEnergy will put off many prospective bidders. That said, any rumour which hiked the SP would be welcome!

...and should surely sweeten IOG as take-over prospect in BH's eyes.

by IOG on a carbon capture and storage collaboration agreement with HerioWatt University's Centre for Doctoral Training.
Not going to set the SP alight but should prove a useful underpin in terms of IOG's stature in the industry and its future asset growth.

duster, Not sure where you are coming from. BH has no equity stake in IOG, just 50% of the core project, so would therefore have no leverage in a third party bid scenario. LOG's holding is ca 30% so it will have an ability to influence any decision on a third party bid will not have the final say.

Hi GG, I think most, if not all, of the LTH's would welcome a sensible bid from BH. Of course, the LOG holding would need to be resolved either before or as part of a deal, but LOG should be our ally in terms of seeking top price.
Logic would dictate that, given BH's huge financial wherewithal, potential third party bidders may be put off from getting into an arm-wrestle which they would have very little chance of winning. However, I would nonetheless be delighted if that occurred as it would, in theory, push the bid price northwards.
Peak and viti make additional points which would support this but I guess the key point is that of timing. If I was BH, I would want to see the platforms in situ, gas flowing through the wellheads and entering the UK grid via Bacton. With IOG under its wing, BH would have a ready made management team (which could subsequently be focused on Poland and Australia), additional North Sea assets plays and 100% of cash flow from the core project. Sort of a no-brainer in my view.

The offer by BH would of course be for IOG!!!!!

Trying hard to be patient about the anticipated upward movement in the SP. I presume the platforms are now on their way or already at their respective locations and ready to be installed - Sailor?
Just because I have so much time on my hands, I have also been trying to configure a theoretical agreement between BH and IOG. It cannot be in BH's long term interest to just hold 50% in the core project and benefit solely from the associated cash flow - the amount involved would be just small change to BH. I am therefore thinking, are we near to the point where BH makes an offer for BH and brings the company under its CalEnergy subsidiary?
CalE's other activities are limited to its 100% operatorship of the Whicher Range gas field in Australia, which has yet to be developed, and its 49% operator ship of the Baltic Gas project (with LOTOS Petrobaltic) in Poland, whose status is difficult to determine. Therefore, the core project, with first gas due in the next couple of months, has to be of most importance to CalE, given the experienced personnel IOG have involved, which would be necessary for the development of the assets in Australia or Poland. Logic would therefore suggest that an offer from BH cannot be far down the road - at core project first gas perhaps - with an add-on expansion plan funded by BH's own cash?

111baker, Not sure what you are on about with "Copper takes 30 years from where HE1 is now"? Escondida in Chile was profitable within ca 36 months from commencement of development. Can't see what real relevance this has to helium recovery.

Can't think of a more positive statement of belief than a broker, advisor, etc triggering options at this stage.

Just bought into this stock and somewhat excited as to the future. In my opinion the fundamental realities here are as follows:
- Helium is in short supply globally
- Any supply/demand imbalance will naturally push the price higher
- Helium is an over the counter traded commodity and therefore contract prices are not unduly subject to wider market influences
- Globally, sales of Helium are relatively small compared to other commodities, around $2 billion, so any major discovery would have a very influential impact on its price
- HE1 has 100% ownership of over some 3,500 square kilometres in Tanzania, in areas known to be rich in Helium.
- The new president of Tanzania has confirmed her desire to re-engage with the international business community in an effort to maximise revenues from Tanzania's natural resources. There is a view that Tanzania could overtake the US and Qatar to become the world's largest producer of helium.
Clearly, most posters here will already be aware of all this but it does highlight the extraordinary prospects in relation to this company and its share price.

Not sure what is required to move the sp onwards to its next level. I previously wrote that 25-30p should be gradually achieved as platform installation and drilling info flowed in and then, hopefully, 35p by first gas and 40p once it hits Bacton.
However, the lack of volume is not going to assist any such progress and the anticipated shenanigans of the MM's and, to a lesser degree, II's at that stage could see the sp struggle to achieve the core project NPV.
Interested in posters' thoughts/views.

Peak, historical chart data shows a strong correlation between crude oil and natural gas in the period 2003-08. However
since 2009 there has been little to no correlation. It is acknowledged that increased shale production in the United States provides a possible explanation for the delinking of crude oil and natural gas prices because natural gas is effectively a regionalized product compared to the global product that is crude oil.
My take on the markets over the past 20 odd years is that oil has been the dominating factor in the relationship between the price of crude oil and natural gas . However, it could be that the current push to replace oil as an energy source in the western world might reverse this over the next decade or so.