Member Info for aligator

Peak, I share your view and am sincerely hoping that the appropriate people in IOG have been working overtime to prepare for first gas publicity. That said, do remember that Broadcasting Bull**** Constantly (BBC to you and me) is very leftist in its views and management and, with most such entities, is probably anti-hydrocarbon. So don't rely too much on getting extensive first gas coverage from that corner.

Ladies and gentlemen, I have the thought of a future event for posters to get together and "celebrate" (see below) the near end of one considerably long and bumpy road in relation to IOG (hopefully future roads will be shorter and smoother!). It would be nice to put faces to names/tags, irrespective of past different views, disputes etc. Common sense would suggest a London venue. If you would be interested in such a gathering perhaps you would signify via this board. If we have sufficient interest, we might hire a function room rather than gather in a pub or otherwise.
With regards to "celebrating", I am hugely conscious that our good fortune in terms of gas price and timing is largely, if not wholly, due to the horrendous scenario playing out in Ukraine and it is my personal intention to make a donation from my gains to an appropriate collection for the people of that country. I also intend to approach IOG and suggest that they also make a donation. Hopefully, my fellow IOG shareholders will also feel able to do so.

Having listened to the webcast interview yesterday, I will be adding to my holding as and when able. This company is ridiculously undervalued (read Malcy's blog) by the MMs for reasons we can only speculate about.
PB has clearly had to face many differing challenges over the past year or so and, while we may feel he and his colleagues have not got it right all the time, TXP is now a case of when not if.

Ceiling looks to have shifted from 36p to 40p based on start of backgassing. Presumably the MM's will be happy to lift this to 45-50p on first gas (would first gas occur directly following completion of backgassing or is there a delay of sorts?) and then on to Finncap's 66p target. However, recent posts have shown calculations supporting ca £1 based on current gas prices so it is anyone's guess where the sp goes after hitting ca 65p.
Best wishes to all, particularly those who, like me, have endured this journey over many years.

dellfrog, Fully aligned with your thinking. So easy during good times such as this to lose sight of previous problems, and the causes thereof, and the need for ongoing professional management in future ops, including southwark. Another factor to consider is the prospect of an approach by a bidder, albeit the presence of Berkshire Hathaway behind CalE will presumably turn quite a few potential suitors off. That said, would love the sp to reach the 60p range and then have a couple of bids from left field. For the moment though, happy to see the sp climb steadily through the day and close over 40-45p?

Will be interested to see where this rerate ends up today. According to the 21 Feb RNS, and assuming backgassing is completed this week, first gas could be this weekend or early next week. With gas at over £6/therm, who knows where the price is headed. I wonder if Finncap will recalculate its target price as 66p now looks low. Certainly, posters estimates of £1 no longer appear optimistic.

Just bought 55,000 at 36.4p. Too good to miss out topping up.

Very welcome news. The sp rose from 34.30p to 36p during the last 30 minutes of trading, a modest 5% increase. I guess this was understandable given that backgassing has yet to be completed, so am presuming (hoping!) that first gas will see the substantial rerate we all believe is coming. But would welcome any thoughts from the market specialists.
What continues to wrankle is the £70 million overspend (can we be sure this is the maximum figure?) and the lost revenue caused by the continual delays which have taken us to this point. Of course, we can now enjoy the ride (assuming first gas shortly after backgassing is completed) but, at some point in the near future, the BoD and senior management team should be questioned at length by investors about the delays over the past couple of years or so.
At the bottom line, there is more to come from the company (Southwark next which, if I recall will be greater then Blythe and Elgood combined) and we need to know that past mistakes will not be repeated and that the appropriate people are in the key roles to ensure this.
No apologies for yet more negativity following such great news but, as a professional investor, if people like me and other posters don't raise these issues who will?

Davispellacy,
1. Sadly, the negative comments are not about the same issue, they are about a mounting series of issues, all centred around unexplained delays and the lack of professional media conduct. Further, there are an increasing number of shareholders making such negative comments.
2. Investors hold on to shares because they buy in to the asset value story, irrespective of whether a management team is excellent or challenged. I suspect that most, if not all, shareholders in IOG have the same take on this.
3. I have no clue why you use the word "greed". All investors risk their money in order to make money - it's as simple as that. I happen to have a shareholding with a low single figure average price and am therefore already looking at substantial gains. I am prepared to hold because, in my own analysis, despite management issues, I believe the sp will rerate considerably after first gas. If this is defined as greed then I am surely guilty. However, I suspect I am not alone.

Davidspellacy, Why do you find it difficult to deal with negative comments about a company? The whole purpose of boards like this is to receive both positive and negative comments which is what makes them so useful. To allow only positive comments fails to investigate any shortcomings and/or problems within a company.
As most posters here know, I have been a shareholder of IOG since the early days and have a substantial shareholding, hence why I am totally aligned with everyone in wanting to see first gas and a share price which reflects the full value of the company. However, I am not willing to put up with the constant delays which have plagued this project since the CalE farm-in and feel that the entire IOG board and management team needs to be reevaluated in due course.
As I said, to ignore the warning signs here is to effectively put the value of one's investment at risk.

Davidspellacy, I have no idea why you are being so rude towards people who are merely expressing their thoughts and views. You are bringing the conversation down to a personal level which isnunfortunate.
For the record, I am a former banker with 45 years in the sector of which over 30 years included involvement in the financing of oil and gas projects around the world. I am in no way an expert on the technical aspects of the industry but have never claimed otherwise and benefit considerably from the input of those with technical backgrounds who post on this board. My skill set is risk analysis and, at this moment in time, the warning signs are very much being displayed about the performance of the IOG management team. I have seen this many times before in my career and have, more than once, had to step in and negotiate a management re-shuffle/injection to bring a project back on course.
As I said, we are all guilty of white line fever here but we ignore the clear warning signs here go inadequate management at our peril.

At the risk of yet again being labelled as a doomsayer, the following is an extract from the 21 February RNS:
"This [backgassing] is now targeted for the week beginning 28th February, with First Gas expected to occur approximately a week later."
To be clear, this statement says backgassing was to commence this week. The reality is that, in all probability, it has not.
My point is, why make such a statement if you know that you are unlikely to meet the target within such a short period? It is ludicrous but, yet again, we are given no explanation for not meeting this self-imposed deadline nor any corrective RNS (albeit we have the rest of today). Not surprising I guess given the fact that the "Phase I Progress" RNS was made just 11 days ago! It is embarrassing to say the least.
Why not say, "...during the first half of March..." and give yourself some leeway? It just smacks of desperation.
I am as guilty as every other shareholder of having white line fever and finally seeing relative value attributed to my shares, but this should not prevent me or anyone from questioning management performance, which, frankly, is now bordering on derisory. The danger here is that shareholders will just forgive and forget once first gas is achieved and do nothing about a management team, which, simply, needs to be culled appropriately.

dunderhead, Agree with your sentiments. I guess I am one of those "doomsayers" by dint of my negativity towards management performance at IOG. It is all well and good getting excited about first gas and high prices but the reality is that the efficacy of the current team needs to be reassessed in light of what shareholders have had to put up with over the past few years since the CalE farm-in.
The reality of course is that, as no doubt you are, I am totally aligned to the investors in this company and want nothing more than first gas at time which, frankly, could not be better gas price-wise (tragically) for the company. However, that should not stop me or anyone from questioning or criticising management performance.
The benefit of these boards is to get a wide spectrum of views from a wide spectrum of shareholders. They should not be used for sniping as long as facts and questions are relevant and accurate.

While I am totally aligned with the expectations and hopes of fellow shareholders I would suggest that you don't start spending your anticipated gains yet! We have been in this position many times before only to see self-inflicted wounds necessitate the pushing back of timetables. Now only three days left to announce the commencement of backgassing and 8 days to achieve first gas. I sincerely hope that the company is able to achieve its targets but my intuition suggests that Bacton (specifically Perenco dragging its feet) may yet be the cause of further delays.
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Davidspellacy, In the first year of trading (2013) the sp actually exceeded 40p and there were trades as high as 45p. As such, we are some way off the ath. Clearly that was some 8-9 years ago and much has happened since then but, in answer to your comment, my long held view has always been that the management team of a company should operate in the best interests of its shareholders. My point is that I have never been convinced of this over the past few years from the constant delays and lack of information as to why. Yes, we are, in theory, close to first gas but, then again, we have been close to milestones before, only to see them pushed back for reasons difficult to comprehend.

dell frog, Not surprisingly, I agree with your post. I think we, as shareholders, have been on the receiving end of some appalling mis/lack-of management by those in charge at IOG and I share your view that, bluntly, heads should roll. However, the company has seen fit to reward such individuals with share options at our expense. In reality, we will probably never know what caused the endless delays and this has led to frustration all along this very long road.
I understand some investors' views that, since we are almost there, we can forget the past and look forward to the future. But, this is simply ignoring problems which appear to be self-inflicted. It is all well and good to blame the pandemic but the fact is that those in charge probably dropped the ball and not just on one occasion.
As you say, there are those who will castigate such comments but, again to reiterate your words, "I dont like my investments lowered in value due to bad management and nor should you".

Frustrating to see an increasing number of posts which have nothing whatsoever to do with the company, its projects and the share price.

GG, Thanks for your thoughts. I would stress that I merely stated in the post what was said to me, essentially verbatim. What was equally interesting is that the comments were stated upfront, without any question from me or otherwise, as if IOG had a negative reputation for planning. For the record, he added that delivery times for orders during the pandemic were not unduly impacted, essentially because order levels declined in parallel, this reducing production pressures on manufacturing companies.
As I say, I am totally aligned with fellow shareholders and, after such a long and arduous journey, am looking forward to seeing the sp finally achieve what we have all believed throughout. However, this background could (and I stress "could") be the reason why we have been subjected to long periods between announcements over the past few years.

Met a guy this morning who works in the manufacturing side of the o&g industry. He said he was familiar with the IOG story and commented that the company had a dubious record when it came to forward planning, ordering and commissioning big ticket items. Further, he confirmed my suspicions that IOG's relationship with Perenco is poor to say the least.
Both these comments clarify, to a degree, questions raised by posters as to the real reasons behind the delays experienced over the past couple of years (he dismissed covid as an excuse) and the reality that, at this time, we still don't know if Bacton is 100% ready to take Blyth gas.
Just to remind everyone that I am a substantial and long term holder of shares so have every desire to see the sp truly reflect the value of the company.

As egdar22 notes, per the last RNS issued just a few weeks ago, backgassing was due to commence mid-february with first gas a week later. On the basis that no news is good news, that would suggest a substantive RNS early this week confirming all this in which case, like all shareholders and specifically those of us who have hung in here over the long term, I am hoping to see a relative rerate of the sp to better reflect the value of the company. There is still the chance that the 7% residual work at Bacton has not been completed and/or there are issues relating to the backgassing. However, either way, I want to know what the state of play is in the next few days. Goodness knows what the opportunity cost has been to the company and shareholders by virtue of the continuous delays during this period of very high gas prices . Yes, the gas has not gone anywhere but, in time value of money terms, the lost cashflow must be significant.