Member Info for aligator

MNN, Frankly, there is the square root of very little priced in this share at this time. For what it is worth, IOG listed at 45p back in 2013 and has plumbed the depths to 3-4p at times in the interim. In the last 6 months it has brought two gas fields on stream and is currently drilling production wells on Southwark which will double total output. In parallel, gas prices (the FDP used 45p therm) have rocketed (currently 300p therm) and look likely to stay high through this winter and beyond. Meanwhile brokers predict a share price of 66-80p (probably conservative given the current gas price), albeit the current share price of 34p values IOG at less than one year's earnings. I am lost.

Mole, Thanks, you raise valid points. I would only comment however that the volume of selling by PIs would be modest in comparison to the offloads by the IIs. With regards to Southwark, as I posted before, I am assuming that no news is good news on the assumption that any news which could impact the share price would have to be rapidly announced by the company.

It is now 204 days or 29.14 weeks since TXP submitted the Cascadura EIA to the EMA. Whichever way you look at the situation, it is shameful. T&T desperately needs the employment, taxes and other economic benefits that Cascadura will bring yet, listening to Energy Minister Stuart Young, you would think that they have all the time in the world.
One can only presume that TXP has not done itself any favours during this period but the end result is an apparent stalemate leaving investors to speculate wildly on exactly what has happened and the MMs to reflect their frustration in the lack of progress by pulling the price down to a level last seen 2 years ago. Essentially, in value terms, the company has gone nowhere in 24 months. That said, I see this as an incredible buying opportunity and have been buying at the current level as soon as funds become available. I am either going to make a lot of money or fall flat on my face!

...selling by, presumably, the IIs, into the sp rise which basically negates any progress at day's end. Yes, we have recovered from 24p (talk about a buying opportunity - ca 40% already!) but progress towards the 66-80p broker targets is painfully slow for those PIs who have ridden this roller coaster for many years. Yes, the LOG shareholding overhangs the market but it is the IIs who are the current problem, exposing the company to a cheap shot bid by AA or others. That said, I take some comfort from knowing that, in theory, LOG's administrator is essentially aligned in thinking with the IIs which could thwart a low ball offer.

Peak, Agreed. The volume of selling has been small but, even so, with the sp where it is now, the opportunity loss to the IIs is significant in monetary terms (i.e selling at 25p versus 35p). All rather difficult to comprehend.

Peak, I share your concerns re the IIs. However, while we all know their role is to make money, their analysts must be telling the hierarchy that this company is massively undervalued and prone to a predatory bid, which would see the sp jump. Why, therefore, are they selling into the small rises we have seen over the past week or so? As we have all experienced, the result of this has been the sp slipping back to its previous levels - all very frustrating for PIs like us.

Why do I get the impression that the Minister's ego far exceeds his capabilities? From all that I can see, he travels the world lecturing developed nations on how to treat T&T but, meanwhile, has achieved very little back home where his real responsibilities lie.

Remember that IOG is obliged to inform the market of any issue, positive or negative, which could impact the share price. Thus, any problem with a pipeline would fall into that category. Consequently, one can but presume that no news is good news in this case.

smasher, I think it's called frustration. Your point is well made but, when people's savings are at risk because of evident failures by various parties, the reaction is to identify the guilty and make their shortcomings known.
I too have come across this many times in many countries and, sadly, my overwhelming experience has been that it is developing nations that cause most problems during this phase. I was even dealing with one African country when the energy minister said to me, in front of other visitors and various jobsworths, that "the process could be made much faster with appropriate personal incentives". I am not saying this is happening in T&T but the fact is it is almost a daily occurrence in some countries.

Interesting thought Peak and one I would support. There has to be significant capital gain in this stock for most, if not all, investors - the $64,000 question is when?

effectively trading at 9 months revenues. Go figure.

Whichever way you look at this it is a clusterf*ck of epic proportions. That said, the gas is still in place and will be monetised in due course (once the idiots in the EMA either acknowledge their untimely performance to date or are brought to heel by the PM/government). This is an economic nightmare for T&T.

Having engaged with a host of jobsworths in domestic oil & gas authorities in both developed and developing countries around the world over the decades, I can probably imagine what is going on here. It is at this stage of field development that the prospective/impending benefits to the country via employment and the economy are often held up, frustrated and even denied during EIA approval. The reality is that, so often, the energy companies know more about environmental impact assessment than those across the table, yet are forced to interact and negotiate with people who have limited knowledge and experience of the subject but see the situation as an opportunity to make a name for themselves - the very definition of a jobsworth.
That said, I get the impression that TXP has not helped itself throughout the whole process but my experience would suggest that it is the T&T authorities who are the problem here.

All we need now is the share price to reflect the value of the company! Completely dumbfounding that, even with the positive RNS, Southwark gas due late Q4 and gas prices set to rise even further throughout the winter, the current market cap is less than one year's projected revenue. I cannot see any other company within the oil & gas sector which is trading at such a level.

It is easy to take aim at the company regarding the EIA and I share the suspicions of many that the process has been poorly handled by PB and colleagues. However, consider this. The EIA was submitted 23.12.21 and under existing legislation a response should have been forthcoming in 80 days - i.e by 13.03.21. It did not arrive. Indeed, the RAR did not arrive for another 53 days (05.05.22), making a total of 133 days for the EMA to deal with what should be a relatively bog standard application.
TXP responded within 10 days on 15.05.22 only to be have to wait another 40 days (24.06.22) before the EMA delivered a second RAR. According to the RNS, this is now being reviewed and a meeting planned with the EMA to ensure that TXP's subsequent responses are appropriate. AS TXP notes, this is the second extended date by the EMA.
Clearly, the EMA is not exactly throwing itself at the issue, which is difficult to understand since Cascadura will generate much needed employment and tax revenue to the country. Indeed, it all seems like a manyana attitude within that authority.
Meanwhile Paul young, Minister for Energy continues to roam the world warning the developed nations not to lecture T&T about how best to develop its energy resources. I think Keith Rowley needs to smell the coffee and get a grip on this man whose ego is considerably greater than his experience.
Has TXP gone about this process in amateur fashion? I would find it difficult to understand why this would be the case and, to be honest, faced with the indeterminable delays by the EMA, I would probably be pulling my hair out.

Not sure what contribution, positive or negative, to this scenario can be laid at PB's/TXP's feet but there is clearly a disconnect between them and the T&T authrorities.

Only a week ago the T&T energy minister was in Surinam lecturing the world on his country's right to develop it own resources as it sees fit. Meanwhile, back in T&T things appear to go from bad to worse. Talk about Nero fiddling while Rome burns!
What puzzles is that these projects are massive revenue generators for T&T (whose entire economy is 40% dependent on hydrocarbons) yet the authorities there seem oblivious to the current high gas prices and hell bent on ensuring T's are crossed and i's dotted.
You could not make it up.

Based on your figure, share price is currently equivalent to just over 6 months cash flow (0.5x) in an industry where the norm is around 4-6x. Arithmetically, this would suggest a real sp of ca 150p.

I think Minister Young needs to stop travelling the world, lecturing those who would dare to suggest to T&T that they are not maximising their hydrocarbon revenues, and deal swiftly with a growing list of exploration, development and production issues within the domestic o&g sector. Listening to him in Surinam would suggest he is is in total control of what is happening back in his home country.

Philsy027, Thanks for the calculations. As I have noted previously, the figure of £187.8m pa net to IOG from Blythe/Elgood has to be compared to the current market cap of £150m - i.e. the company is valued at just ca 10 months' cash flow! When Southwark kicks in gas production will double, possibly in an even higher gas price environment. I can only hope that, at some stage between now and that point, the sp will rerate significantly!