Member Info for aligator

The problem here now is one of credibility and the market and market makers have seen so many negative announcements over the past few years that they are inevitably spooked by anything the company says which does not spout success or progress. To watch the sp slide around 40% on the back of mere operational issues - which are not uncommon in the industry - is tacit evidence of this ongoing concern. None of this is aided by the performance and attitude of the BoD and senior executives who just don't seem to comprehend their PR challenge and continue to protest their innocence in the context of decisions made within the FDP.
To sum it up, we have production from two fields, a third field due to produce within a few months and gas prices at levels never seen before. And where is IOG's sp headed among all this? South at a rate of knots and now approaching 27p against broker estimates of 66-80p.
Frankly, I have heard so many excuses from the BoD and senior execs that I am now inured to them. Quite simply, whenever an RNS is released, I just wonder how much the sp is going to fall. This, I believe, is the view of the market.

MCH, I read similar articles in other papers and online. My view is that the administrator of LOG is somewhat aligned with the expectations of other shareholders, including us. With the sp have neared 45p in March, I suspect that they will want it to return to that level before even considering selling part or all of LOG's stake - not least given broker predictions of 66-80p. They would look rather stupid selling at the current level, following the 30% drop last week.
I am aware that there is close contact between the administrator and IOG (because it told me so in a telephone call) but presume that it gets no more information than is made known to all shareholders. Thus, notwithstanding the hiccups, I cannot see any near term major disposition by the administrator, at least until the sp is back around 45p.

ab76, Thanks for the feedback and let's hope that those in charge will turn words into deeds. That said, I can't help but think that the country's lethargic approach to stimulating production etc through efficient approval processes and an enhanced fiscal regime, which has seen output targets missed and levels fall, has resulted in it missing out on a huge bounty in terms of the current gas price environment.

So sad to see this board descend again into insulting and/or covert deramping posts. I am not an engineer but, as commented by others, such issues are not unknown, if not frequent, in terms of salinity content and the drilling wells of this nature. That said, I harbour the view that the senior executive of this company have either failed to foresee, and plan for the remediation of, problems in terms of FDP targets and milestones over the past three years and/or lacked quality control nous when it has come to awarding contracts to third parties. Indeed, it is difficult not to come to this conclusion given the very long list of problems which have been encountered.
The market reaction has become all too predictable to those who are LTHs and the drop to 28p (30% in 2 days) in the sp was, frankly, not surprising, even if in strict financial terms, it would appear overdone.
Both issues, i.e salinity within Blythe or Elgood production and the loss of drilling fluids on Southwark, need to be identified and resolved in very short order or there is the possibility of the sp shrinking back to ca 23p, which followed the Bacton issues. Most importantly, the BoD MUST comprehend the need for immediate notification of market cap impacting developments, both good and bad, via RNS. It is breaching regulations for a company to withhold such information from the market and, specifically, its shareholders. I remain to be convinced that this scenario has not already happened with both the salinity and drilling fluid issues.
All that said, I am going to hang in here (dunderhead 1.75 million shares). I understand the decision by others to exit - none more so than Peakview - but feel that the current gas price environment is going to last for some time and that, even with reduced production targets, the company's revenue generation prospects will be considerably greater than the current market cap.
As always, these are my views and happy to receive (professional) reaction from others.

Wolster, Agreed. That said, having read the full report, I do think that the market reaction is overdone. What is happening here is a market, spooked by a history of negative announcements over the past few years, over reacting (in my opinion) to events which are not unusual in the industry and are being rapidly investigated by the company. A 20% reduction in the market cap of any company in one day's trading is, frankly, almost at panic level.

Peak, Agreed. I think it is high time that something was done. If the Southwark production well issue has been known for months but not announced then, frankly, heads must roll.

JH77, The Southwark production well problems appear to have been going on for some time, possibly since the first quarter. Given that the announcement of this was always going to impact the share price, I am surprised it was not made known earlier. This is something the company should explain.
I would remind all posters that LOG reduced its holding by 1.16% to 25.83% in the last week. Somewhat dubious timing in my view.

As has been said by others, the company has not been great at keeping investors up to speed on developments and I think many of us feel the BoD should seriously consider its PR strategy, if not change its PR advisor. That said, per LSE rules, any development or occurrence which has the potential to impact the value of the company and, therefore the sp, must be made known to the market, via an RNS, as soon as possible. I am therefore hoping (maybe I shouldn't) that there are no negative aspects within the forthcoming announcement.

duster, One would hope so, not least following Southwark production. However, this share has never failed to amaze me on its movements which, at times, have been counter to logical interpretation. My own conclusion is that the presence of the LOG holding overhang has been the major factor behind such movements and the sooner the administrators sell the entire stake the better. That said, at this price the company remains susceptible to a bid and, if this came in above 55p, I think a lot of PIs would possibly think this was the time to exit. Even though I think the sp should move towards 100p based on the current situation, I might possibly be one of these.

duster, A couple of thoughts. 15m shares is just under 3% of issued shares so perhaps, if a new investor, purposely just below TR1 trigger. If it was one of the IIs then a TR1 would be required in any event. Either way, the 15m had minimal impact on the sp.

Somewhat mystifying why the sp would react so positively to the CEC announcement and then fall back equally rapidly, essentially to its pre announcement level. All this taking place against a relatively modest trading volume. Of course, there are always going to be profit takers in such situations but, in the view of most of us on this board, given the incredible near, mid and long term prospects nestled within TXP, the sp should only be heading in one direction. Ok, there will be modest dips along the way but, just based on Malcy's thoughts, the sp should be headed for 275p.

although I find it difficult to comprehend why investors are exiting now given today's good news and the somewhat astounding prospects ahead - no more acutely summed up than Malcy's 275p forecast.
We all know that investors have different strategies, exit plans, etc but the concept that someone is willing to sell at 110p when all the facts point towards a figure almost 3 times that is beyond me.

My personal view, having interacted with the T&T government and its agencies before, is that they are struggling to shrug off a "mañana" image and the perception that those in authority seem to feel that building their own reputation and self-esteem should take precedence over mundane issues (e.g taking almost 9 months to issue a CEC) which impact the lives of the entire population. Frankly, T&T needs a major political shakeup if it is to continue as one of the prominent economies in the Americas.

happysparrow, I am puzzled by your desire to thank various government and state corporate officials (and a newspaper?) for finally doing their job and issuing a CEC, a document which should have been received months ago. The reality is that T&T energy output has been declining for years, notwithstanding the numerous discoveries and developments which have been taking place, and the government and its agencies appear to be walking in treacle in trying to fulfil their respective roles. Bottom line is that the government - including energy minister Young and PM Rowley - needs a kick up the backside, not receiving letters of appreciation and thanks!

Has anyone done any rough calculations on total earnings from all known fields (acknowledge that this is years ahead) and a corresponding sp?

Rhino, It is difficult to understand why you are on this specific board, where your comments clearly reflect your political leanings. As I have written previously, these boards are for people who invest their hard earned savings and hope for a reward in doing so. Along the way, they can share views and opinions, good or bad, with other posters, the holy grail being that we all take each others' comments at face value and make money. Sadly, some posters feel the need to bring profanity and personal insults into the equation which benefits no one. I guess the same can be said for those seeking to shoe horn politics into the equation.

I am delighted for all of us who have hung in there over the past couple of years and who, hopefully, will now see considerable reward for our patience. However, let's not forget that the T&T government took almost 9 months to approve the EIA and issue a CEC - a process that should realistically have taken only around 3 months. To my mind, given T&T's declining hydrocarbon production and soaring gas prices, there is something that does not compute with this dragging of feet in approving field developments which will have nothing but benefits for the population.

I have to say, I get equal amusement out of some of the comments on these boards as I do about relevant information/views on IOG. As the more chilled among us say, this is a medium for sharing views, be they positive or negative and irrespective of the background, knowledge, whatever of the poster. Why, therefore, some become angry to the point of utilising profanity and insults to make their point is simply beyond me. At the bottom line, we are all here to make money.

big bench, Agree with you but just remembering that all the sp has done is recover to the average price seen since the beginning of the year - i.e. ca 86p. Not sure what it needs to break through the 90p level - these accounts read well but clearly have not stimulated demand.

Just reminding myself that the sp hit almost 45p at the time of first gas from Blythe and Elgood, with all subsequent problems (which dropped it to ca 24p!) now seemingly resolved. But the sp sits around 35p?