Member Info for aligator

JH77, Not if you take any notice of OIlMan 1984's post.

Masks, The share price and market cap go hand in hand - market cap being the multiple of the number of shares in issue times the sp. That said, I would not say that the market cap is very healthy. It represents just 10 1/2 months net revenues in an industry where corporate values have historically traded in the range of 3-5 times (and more) annual earnings. With Southwark about to double production and earnings (unless OIlMan 1984 is correct...) the sp should climb closer to the broker estimates and the market cap start to reflect the real NPV of the company's assets.

Philsy, Based on your calculations of £600k per day net revenue, that would equate to £219m per annum. Current market cap of IOG is ca £190m which would value the company at only 10.5 months' earnings. Indeed, this puts pressure on the brokers' targets of 66-80p which would equate to valuations of £345-420m (based on 525m shares) - a spread of just 19-23 months earnings. This clearly highlights the considerable discrepancies which currently exist between the sp and IOG's real value.

Delighted for everyone, including myself, with today's news and looking for the sp to head back to 100p plus in the near future. However, it should not be forgotten that the EIA was originally submitted back in December last year and that it took the EMA all but 8 months - 240 days - to finally confirm that it required no further information. Further, it needs to be remembered that, while approval of the EIA may be considered a given, the reality is that the EMA still needs to give its nod for the development of Cascadura through the issuance of a CEC and has until 15 September to do this. It will be interesting to see if all of this period is taken for the CEC to be issued.
Onwards and upwards now for the company and the long suffering shareholders!

duster, Valid thought. The market has certainly witnessed many hiccups insofar as IOG is concerned and the MMs are no fools. That said, there still needs to be demand and my concern in that regard is that the company is not on the front pages yet. However, if all goes to plan with southwark, dare we hope that 70p upwards is viable in the first quarter of 2023?

Peak, We are on the same page. I have given up trying to read the market for this share but have fallen short on not just predicting the sp but even having a clue as to whether it will go up or down. There is simply no logic to its daily movements.

I of course mean "posters" not "posers"!!!!

Pipe, I share your views, predicting the sp to any sort of sensible figures been impossible over the last few years and particularly now. Good news has been met by sp decline and bad news has resulted in the sp dropping significantly - over 40% in the case of the announcement of problems at Bacton. In addition, any relevant price gains suffer from an immediate bout of selling, mostly it would seem by the IIs again.
I get the impression that the shareholder base of IOG is simply not broad enough, which could account for these abnormal movements, but maybe other posers have different views?

...and the price moves up?

Yet again we are seemingly staring into a void in terms of the sp. As someone posted, the whole sector is on the up. In addition, gas prices are pointing towards record highs in winter, Southwark will double production when it comes on stream later in the year and the likelihood is that the Russians are going to toy with gas supply for some time to come. And where does IOG's market cap go -down.
I echo Peak's question whether anyone here has an explanation?

taking place, which has dragged the sp down. Or is this again more misreporting by LSE? If they are sales, I always get a little nervous at such activity in case bad news has been leaked. You just don't know with IOG!

Din 32, You raise an interesting proposition, i.e. share buy-back rather than dividends. It would presumably have a considerable influence on LOG's administrator and perhaps map a route to a broader shareholder base and less negativity towards the sp. Have you been in touch with the company about your thoughts?

I just wonder where the sp would be right now if gas was trading around the 45p FID projection figure (i.e. 6-7 times lower)?

Sent too early. Was going to ask the market experts what the trading picture might signify as there are relatively large buys and sells?

has picked up (but not sure about volume). Further

Probably the latter, although I cannot be certain.

When you step back and look at the situation, you realise that the whole EIA saga has been going on for almost 8 months since the original proposal was submitted in December last year and still does not have light at the end of the tunnel. Meanwhile, the energy minister roams LATAM and the Caribbean lecturing all and sundry on how successful T&T is in exploiting its natural resources and the PM seems to be walking in treacle when it comes to making hard decisions.
You simply could not make it up. Here is a country not exactly at the top end of the world rich list, sitting on massive amounts of gas at a time when gas prices have gone stratospheric but effectively finding it very difficult to approve field development programmes incorporating environmental impact assessments. I can only presume the citizens of T&T are either disinterested, not able to comprehend the matter or feel unable to bring about change.

If you are a serious investor in IOG, AH's presentation is a must see. It is not only well done but hits all the key issues which are impacting or will impact the company and paints a very rosy picture for the future. Yes, as with the history of IOG, there will be glitches and disappointments along the way but, having myself had many rants about the BoD in the past, I was impressed with what I heard and saw.
Key takeaways:
Investor return - AH reiterated this as the company's primary responsibility. Happy with that.
Hedging - if the company is able to hedge around 200p therm (my guess - gas predicted at 400p therm this winter) against a production cost of 10-15p therm the future is going to be very rosy indeed.
Dividends - The hint is that dividends will be paid as soon as possible. Who can't be happy
Acquisitions - Probably the least covered subject but I got the impression that something may be afoot, possibly in league with CalEnergy.
The company now needs to keep these presentation going on a regular basis since, if everything is to be believed, it will have nothing but good news to release for several years to come.

My view is that CalEnergy will not sit back and wait for things to develop. WB is too shrewd an operator to allow things to go too far and will already know, via Berkshire Hathaway, of the current large discounted value of the company. Even if Kristos tried to make a low ball bid (again) I think there are several other companies who would view the proposition (buying a production company valued at just 9 months' revenues) as very attractive. What would be marvellous is for WB to get into a bidding war with one or two other predators - but now I am getting carried away.

Thanks Mole. I am no market expert so happy to get some explanation. I agree re the LOG administrator. Not sure if it was intended but they appear to have painted themselves into a 45p plus exit strategy (i.e. north of the first gas price achievement). They seem to be aligned with the PIs rather than the IIs which is no bad thing as it should be a deterrent to a low bid.
I also think you are right re market cap but have many memories of similar expectations in the past few years, which have been dashed on the rocks of technical problems, Bacton issues, etc. That said, I do think the brokers should be rethinking their sp targets as they cannot have been inputing 300p per therm in coming up with 66-80p.