Member Info for aligator

leapinglemming, I don't know why. Could you enlighten me. There are many stocks in the London markets which completely ignore this principle and TXP is one of them.

JH, I think you have to say that the company has been extremely fortunate indeed with what has happened to gas prices. It had nothing to do with planning or foresight by the BoD.

...continues to confound. A broad review tells us that, barring problems, Southwark will commence production in Q4 at a rate greater than the combined output of Blythe and Elgood (courtesy ggits), while gas prices continue to rise (up almost 50% today!) and may go even higher as winter kicks in and gas supply comes under more pressure. Based on this, one would perceive that, in the o&g sector, such a production base would see the company's sp trading in a range of 3-5x net annual earnings. However, the reality is that the sp is currently trading at considerably less than this - possibly just over 1x (based on anticipated 12 month cashflow). This would suggest that even broker estimates of 66-80p (presumably based on lower gas price estimates) could be on the low side and perhaps even 100p plus (per MasksNewWorm).
For me, this is sufficient to sit on my shareholding, notwithstanding the truly confounding antics of the sp.

Global markets reacting to events in the US markets, which have closed down on two consecutive days amid fears regarding, inflation, recession and potential world conflict beyond Ukraine. The UK energy market also not helped by seemingly counter-intuitive announcements about Bacton.
Bottom line, as noted by some posters, is that no further problems have been identified on Blythe/Elgood (otherwise, this would require an RNS), Southwark should be producing by December and the company is currently generating ca £450-500k per day (£164m pa) from the former - equal to around 112% of current market cap - suggesting that eventual rerate of the sp should see it somewhere between 65-80p. Even at 80p, this would only represent ca 3 years' cash flow.
The trick now is to avoid any further production or field development problems, start fixing gas contract prices and look to the future with a degree of optimism.

gtbs, Yes LOG is in administration, courtesy of the failure of its parent, London Capital Finance - whose directors are the subject of various investigations by the CPS. Smith & Williamson is the administrator and, thankfully, to date, has worked closely with IOG regarding the handling of its responsibilities. However, it is its huge shareholding which is a problem for the sp since, on the assumption that there is no bid for the company from a third party, LOG's holding will ultimately require disposal through the market, a process which will undoubtedly take time and depress the sp.
There are many posters here who, like me, continue to be frustrated by the history of problems with the field developments and the lack of communication from the BoD. However, the facts are that Blythe and Elgood are producing, Southwark should be on stream prior to the year end and the company has further drilling on new areas lined up within the foreseeable future - all taking place at a time of considerable problems with foreign gas imports and high gas prices.

All-round, this was a positive announcement, although, reading between the lines, I sense huge frustration with the T&T authorities, who have, for example, yet to approve the Cascadura EIA despite it having been delivered some time ago. One would have thought that TXP's activities, promising new natural gas supplies and federal tax income, would be a government priority but the country does appear to pursue a mañana attitude to most things.
What is surprising is that, on the back of this news, the sp drops by 4.35% - a price not seen for almost a year - following a wave of selling which simply does not make sense given the positive RNS and the gas value TXP is sitting on.

Not me. Not within my experience or skill set. How about you?

...of promising much and delivering little. TXP is becoming a laughing stock. Paul Baay used every superlative about the company's prospects a year ago, even inventing some new gushing O&G terminology to underscore what the company had and implying a tidal wave of cash in the short term. The reality, in essence the square root of f*ck all!
The last 12 months has seen a litany of excuses about one thing or another - invariably the cause/blame being pointed at somewhere else. I suspect that, like many others, I am guilty of having had the wool pulled over my eyes but PB has been good at spinning a tale.
It is, frankly, now time for him and his colleagues to put up or move out and hand the reins over to a team that can deliver. The potential in this company is enormous but it is currently being squandered.

JH77, Given the subsequent rise in the sp, it might appear to have been a buy. However, I assume nothing about this company - there is just so much illogical/counter market history here. That said, good to see it back at 29p but now just waiting for more selling into this increase by the IIs.

Mole, nothing on this board over the years has convinced me that this sp is not being manipulated. It has been all too convenient for the II's to sell into rises which have, themselves, defied historical (and illogical) sp movement - up and down. The LSE's remit in respect of listed companies is one of "constant surveillance". This is either not taking place or the wool is being pulled over the LSE's eyes.

Mole, you raise a valid point about institutional investor loyalty, specifically after the discounted offering. Just proves the point that money (or profit) talks!

Interestingly, the word "odd" has become synonymous with IOG, replacing the "if it can go wrong it will go wrong" label. As I previously posted, the sp should be trading at multiples of annual earnings, not just 12 months. So much trading opaqueness about the company.

and the price drops?

This can't be right - sp rising on positive news! Is this going to morph into a mini rerate or am I being too optimistic?

Happy to read the RNS and to note that the company is netting 120p per therm - ca 3x the FID projection. Not getting too excited about short term sp recovery as the constant seller(s) will probably continue to sell into any rise. That said, hoping that we will now see its gradual recovery over the next few months, complemented by Southwark completion and first gas.
It is now evident that the gas market scenario will continue into/through the winter which bodes well for the company's cash flow and, hence, its value.
I am hesitant to think more about the absence of rumours of a takeover bid but I guess that any potential suitor is going to have to get the LOG administrator on board and I don't see that happening unless a bid was appropriately north fo the first gas price.

gg, I share your thoughts. As monkey notes, we are due an operational update before the end of the month and the fact that there has been no further negative announcements, which the company would be obliged to release if there were material issues at play, suggests that remedial work at Bacton is continuing and no issues with southwark. That said, I have to say that I remain aghast at the performance of the sp, which reflects no logical valuation of the company.

What happened to this company? Were any of the superlatives bandied around 6-12 months ago ever achieved? Frankly, given previous highs, this company looks as if it is struggling to deliver.

james.chance@iog.co.uk

Mole, Many thanks for your comments and thoughts. I am certainly in your zone of thinking but my patience is being stretched to the limit.
Mr F, There is a history here that you should be fully aware of. I am hoping that your investment is perfectly timed and that you will ultimately achieve a 2-3 bag profit. All other private investors - lots who have been invested for many years - will support this.

dunderhead, Since it is the MMs who establish the market, logic would dictate that they have a major influence on the sp. I have no idea if the individuals therein are Masons or otherwise but the fact is that AIM abounds with stories of price manipulation by the MMs, possibly in collusion with the IIs. However, it is the leakage of information which is equally worrying and the next day or so will, based on today's drop, possibly provide evidence of yet another problem within the company, which, once again, allows both MMs and IIs to profit, effectively at the expense of PIs like us