Member Info for aligator

I have said many times before and say again that the company needs to step back and assess (the lack of) its PR/media capability/activities. Frankly, its efforts to date have fallen well short of the expectations of investors and it simply does not appear to have learned any lessons along the way, despite constant sniping from shareholders through boards like this.
If there are problems with Southwark, Bacton or even Blythe these need to be made known along with progress reports on the backgassing process. I will be mightily unimpressed if the company feels that it can seek to hide bad news among a first gas announcement due imminently. Indeed, I will seek to challenge the continuing roles of those responsible for this aspect of the company's activities.

davidblack, How I wish that the market was influenced by "jaded shareholders....such that the price goes down".
The reality, as we all acknowledge, is that stock markets (and specifically AIM in the UK) have very little to do with the inherent value of a company and everything to do with the desires of market makers and large institutional shareholders who manipulate the supply and demand to suit their own objectives. The result, as with TXP, is a company totally undervalued, pi**ed off private shareholders and a share price showing no logical performance in the face of published information or buy/sell dynamics.
TXP is a totally undervalued (possibly by a factor of up to 3x just based on current information) and its market cap barely reflects the NPV of just 1 or 2 of its various discoveries.
In his last presentation, I don't believe PB could have been more upbeat and confident without overstepping the mark. He literally ran out of superlatives about the company and it ever increasing portfolio of discoveries and development. Ye the sp went down the day after and has struggled since. You simply could not make it up.

GG, I share your thoughts on Perenco and interpretation of the RNS. Although I lack a technical background, I get the feeling that we have not been given the real facts about IOG's dealings with Perenco during the last couple of years at this terminal .

edgar, Acknowledged. However, you don't suddenly announce an increase in budget overspend of 25% when 10% has been the target for some time. It was not 10% last night and 25% this morning - they clearly knew this some time before, the question is when and why has it just been announced?

Firstly, I think we can assume that, had shareholders not written to the company and/or posted on these sites, we may not have had this announcement.
Secondly, I either missed or forgot the company's previous indication that the "...gross outturn total Phase I capital expenditure was anticipated to exceed the original £305.5 million Field Development Plan budget by up to 10%", which is £30.55 million. We are now told that management has increased this to up to 20-25% (why not just 25%?), which is £76.375 million. Did this number just become known or have we been kept purposefully in the dark since the "10%" announcement? Further, the RNS states that "...based upon our revised project schedule no additional financing requirement is currently expected to be required to bring all three Phase 1 fields on stream" but that, "As a prudent additional measure, the Company also recently signed a £5 million working capital facility with a recognised international bank".
As an ex-banker, my immediate question is how is an £76.375 million cost overrun suddenly recognised when there have been no previous announcements of the 10% being exceeded and how can such a huge figure be absorbed into a "revised project schedule"?. A £5 million facility will merely make a small dent in this number. Accordingly, from a numbers perspective this just does not make sense but perhaps other, more hands-on, development experienced posters have a view?
I am also mindful of GG's post questioning why survey work was not carried out while the rig was in Scotland and would like an explanation from the company.
I am afraid that my previous views of, and support for, the BoD/management team are rapidly turning negative. Perhaps it is time for a change in senior personnel in this company?

In the absence of a simple RNS confirming that Bacton is ready to receive gas, I fear we must assume that there is in fact a remaining problem or problems at the terminal. If that is the case it is very frustrating as IOG has owned this facility since October 2019, some 27 months, but has steadfastly refused to give a clear indication of progress on all work required there.
I have said before and will say again, the board of IOG really do need to establish some professionalism in the company's media and shareholder interaction.

I understand that several approaches have been made by shareholders (and posters on this site) directly to the company, requesting an update on Bacton. So far nothing in return. This issue needs to be put to bed, by an RNS from the company, one way or the other. Either Bacton, after having been in the hands of IOG for ca 27 months, is ready and able to receive gas or it is not. It is a clear binary issue and, by yet again dawdling on a response, the BoD is doing itself no favours with investors.

Having established a sizeable position in TXP over the past few years, I continue to view this company in terms of the tortoise versus the hare, much of this endorsed by PB last evening. De-risking continues on many fronts and, in my view, this continues to reinforce the view that TXP is a case of when and not if. The timetables may not suit some investors but I really do feel that the short to medium term here is full of promise, with limited downside. The long term reflects even better prospects as cash flow from upcoming new production will fund further development as well as a veritable host of other exploration opportunities. To date, the company does not appear to have figured on the screens of the big guys which has presented buying windows for investors, of which I have taken advantage.
"Hang in there" is my advice to shareholders. Many figures have been proffered over the last 12 months or so and the consensus appears to suggest £2-3 by year end, £4-5 by 2024 and the prospect of £10 thereafter on the basis that everything comes to the fore.

I am a modest holder of this stock averaging 12p, so just into profit again.
Given the lack of announcements since the operational update in December, could someone kindly provide a view regarding the uptick?

NPM, I have also been a long term investor in the company and, while. like all PI's, I await the announcement of first gas (here we are now well into in the second half of January), I share your thoughts on Bacton, which was actually acquired in October 2019. For whatever reason(s), progress announcements on the terminal have been few and far between and their absence has, I suspect, fuelled questions in more than just your and my minds, not least recently. Clearly, if there are Bacton issues, investors, big and small, need to know. I have long questioned the company's media strategy, which has historically left me scratching my head. Let's hope that all is progressing well onshore but the company does need to clarify the situation to the market.

You have to say that, with IOG, if it can co wrong it will go wrong. The company has endured endless corporate, financial, personnel and technical challenges during its history and specifically in the last few years. That said, you either continue to buy the story or exit - its a binary decision in my mind.
However, I have to agree with other posters that management's handling of such issues from a media perspective leaves room for considerable improvement. AIM is an unforgiving market and unless you have professionals handling this aspect you leave yourself exposed to the vagaries of this market.

Mole, I share your frustration and, while I remain positive about the future, I can't help but think that this whole project has been dogged by either financial, corporate or mechanical issues which have resulted in delay after delay after delay. That said, we are about to commence production in a gas market experiencing unheralded high prices and hopefully this will be the cream on this proverbial cake in terms of up-front cash flow and net present value.
As for the sp, this morning's fall was logical although we must remember that previous falls have followed positive, rather than negative, announcements making forecasting essentially worthless.

Raising debt rather than equity is a win win situation for shareholders - one, because it means no dilution and, two, it is a strong indication that the banking sector (certainly in T&T) is still open for energy business and buys into the TXP story.
This has certainly been a bumpy ride over the past 2 plus years but PB and the team are proving that they can walk the talk - and if you can't be enthused by PB's interview yesterday then I guess nothing will convince you about this company (I am not sure I have heard so many superlatives in a CEO's speech in many years).
While many of us were waiting/predicting/hoping for £2 by year end (you never know!), my view is that this will happen during the first quarter of next year and onwards to £3 and beyond as 2022/23 unfold. I have built a sizeable holding from an initial price of 16p and while a £2-3 sp will not mean I am in superyacht territory, it will fund a more modest vessel to make my retirement even more relaxing.
Where do I see this ending up in the long term? On the basis that all known fields come into production, then I believe that £5-10 is possible. That is super yacht territory! However, I suspect that as TXP grows its attraction to the majors will grow, although they will want to see new production before bidding.

https://youtu.be/4PxKjsU5I8I
Everyone should listen to this 5 minute plus interview. PB uses superlatives throughout - as other posters have said, what is not to like. Courtesy of those who manipulate this market, this is yet another top up opportunity for those who believe that economic oil and gas in the ground will ultimately realise cashflow to the owner.
We are talking mega structures here and the T&T government is TXP's biggest supporter - you could not get a better combination.

Groover, I suspect the problem is that those responsible for prefecting the markets either don't have a clue as to what is going on or are somehow complicit. Frankly, market manipulation has gone on far too long in the UK (and US/Canada) and the government needs to deal with this - too many small investors are being taken to the cleaners while the big boys smile all the way to the bank.

90p and dropping. Just goes to explain the difference between "indicates" and "confirms"!

Can anyone provide risked NAV valuations on the discoveries to date - Coho, Cascadura, Royston, Kraken etc or a grand NAV for the company? With a current market cap of ca CAD400m, it seems to me that this figure is probably considerably less (by a factor of multiples) of the NAV of just one of these fields.

Let's be specific here. PB states "We are excited to announce this further, large oil discovery at Royston-1. The results are the reason we find the geology in Trinidad's hydrocarbon charged basin so exciting." What is not to like about these words? If they are a deliberate misrepresentation of what is actually happening in Trinidad then people should go to jail. It is as simple as that. You either have a marketplace where, specifically, private investors can risk their savings making decisions on known data or you have a cesspit of fraud and deceit designed to enrich some at the expense of others. I agree that TXP's PR is not as good as we would like it to be but will continue to buy at this level.

ps useful top up at 114.9p

Another example of the manipulation possibilities open to mm's and ii's (although the risk of the sp rising on such information was a precarious position for any short seller to take). It simply blows my mind that the authorities in both the UK and Canada sit idly by while this behaviour carries on within their respective markets.
I am an ex-banker so not technically nor market proficient but proficient in risk analysis. However, I base my investments on known facts. The problem is that this approach is more often than not undermined by the antics of these institutions so we have the situation of good news equals sp drop.
I am not fazed by this for all the positive reasons discussed on this board and others and am willing to wait for a true reflection of the value of the company through the sp and an income flow as it commences dividends. Roll on 2022!