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Sorry to comment that such anaemic announcements have become standard for IOG. As for first gas in Q4 being "challenging" I guess that is up to all of us to interpret as individually. This is the first time the Q4 timetable for gas production has been brought into question. Yes, the gas is there and going nowhere but its production means cashflow which means corporate value which means higher share price. Further, any delay runs the risk of gas prices normalising and IOG missing the current large premium for gas.

GG/Peak, Not being technically minded, I am guessing that first gas is dependent on 3 events - ability to turn on the tap at the field, ability of the pipeline to handle the gas and ability of the Bacon facilities to receive gas and inject into the national grid. I am presuming that all is ready at the wellhead and that the pipeline has been signed off, leaving the Bacton aspect as the relative unknown. The reason I ask this is because, if I was IOG, I would be anxious to promote a first gas date. It has been a very long haul to this point and we are rapidly approaching half-way through Q4, but still no announcements. Any thoughts?
As for price prediction, I have essentially given up on this as the sp has all too often reacted negatively to positive news. That said, I could live with 40p at first gas - when that occurs.

Peak, Your last comments echo my earlier posting. How many times over the past few years have we all said that, based on known facts, the sp has to take an upwards hike in the short term when in actuality it has often gone into reverse? This is why I have, over this period, questioned the media management by the executive team. Yes, there are a myriad of issues at play here, LOG overhang, options dilution, CER stance, rig problems, etc. but I just feel that those responsible are not wholly experienced in managing the situation appropriately. As you say in your last sentence, a media leg up would surely do no harm.

Just viewed and have to say I was not impressed - same old, same old - you read all what was shown on the website. While AH knows his stuff he is frankly not an enthusiastic presenter. I have been one of the past critics of the company's PR and I now think it needs to undertake a serious review of its vision and strategy in this regard. Let's face it, the LOG overhang is a sp issue and, more obliquely, so is CER's 50% share of phase I income. As private investors, we have endured a long wait to see the sp reflect the enterprise value of the company, but, based on last evenings performance, I cannot see this happening.

Peak, Thanks for this, which makes sense. Let's just hope that the market follows this logic. As for coal surpassing gas in Europe, as you say, so much for all the hype about carbon zero expectations. I just hope that our first gas announcement slips by the gaze of Greta Thunberg.....
With regards to dividends, that is an equally relevant issue. Commercial logic would dictate that the Board would seek to pay asap as the news of such will no doubt have a positive impact on the sp. However, the timing could be delayed by cash flow requirements within the company's activities and I don't really have a handle of things non-core.

Sailor, Thanks. Have you or anyone got a comment on the sp? It is behaving as if any uptick for first gas has already been discounted. No doubt the rig problem is not doing us any favours and the LOG overhang remains a big issue but it 31p appears to have become the new ceiling.

on the rig situation or drilling timeframe?

Viti, Good point and the lack of a TR1 suggests that it was not LOG nor one of the II's but, perhaps, an investor with less than 3% who is either selling out (albeit that would not seem smart at this specific time) or trading his position.

Toro, according to my calculations, the 9.265m sale last week equated to only ca 1.7% of the issued shares. If this was a new investor then clearly it is below the 3% threshold for declaring to the stock exchange. Perhaps that would account for the lack of a TR1, in which case I see it as good news in that we have another serious player as shareholder.

Just seen the announcement. I clearly spoke too soon! Everyone in the know fully appreciates the risks inherent in operating these facilities (I have been fortunate to visit both drilling and production units and am acutely aware of the dangers) and clearly there was concern about the integrity of the rig itself. Let's hope the problem is minor and the rig can be back on station quickly.
As GG notes the sp has historically dropped in bad news but dithered in good news, suggesting that future value is in some way built into the market cap. However, at £150m, I think we would all agree that it has some way to go, not least in the current gas price environment. Based on the company's 50% share of the core project, I still feel that ca 45p is a more appropriate valuation.

Toro, I am aligned with you on timescale (a "decade holder") and price development. Logic would dictate that the company is forging ahead as quickly as possible to get to first gas but, as we all appreciate, safety must come first. It would be an absolute tragedy if an accident or malfunction was to occur in the last 100m sprint to the line and the impact on the sp would no doubt be sizeably negative, irrespective of whether this only caused a short delay.
As for pricing, the LOG overhang is the prediction conundrum and the administrator will be watching developments very carefully, which is why I suggested that the 9.265m sale might be them testing the market. Bottom line is that the administrator has a significant duty of care to LCF creditors and may decide to exit sooner rather than later. Maybe they are waiting to see how the sp reacts to first gas before making a decision? I am presuming that the influence of the MM's will decrease the closer we get to first gas since that achievement will highlight the substantial differential between the real value of the company and, by comparison, its market cap. We then only have to deal with the intentions and shenanigans of the II's but, following first gas, they will be supporters of a rising sp and aligned with PI's.
I have felt for some time that 50p was achievable, more so in the current gas market situation, so any bid for the company, even if it was BH (which to me makes eminent sense) would have to carry a sizeable premium. Whether that is 40% (to get to your 70p) is something to further muse on (and salivate....). Oh that a third party entered the fray and we ended up with a bidding war!

Peak, Highly probable that it was LOG as it is one of few investors at this time to have 3rd party pressures on it to sell. I could imagine that, with the sp ducking below 30p, it felt it necessary to dip a toe in the water to gauge the impact of disposing of 9.265m shares in what is an unpredictable environment. If the sp remains around this level next week, I could see LOG testing the market again.
What underpins this view is the reality that none of the other big shareholders have any reason to sell at this level, knowing what we all know about the near certainty of first gas, further drilling and the gas price itself, apart from other positives.
The equal unknown here is of course who was the buyer. Could it have been BH finally deciding to undertake a test purchase itself - not implausible? The TR! will enlighten us all.
Meanwhile I continue to add as and when funds are available so pleased to see LO increasing its holding, albeit modestly.

Lemming, Just doing the maths - LO topped up from 17.99% to 18.05%, an increase of 0.06%. There are 523,764,212 share in issue which means LO purchased an additional 314,258 shares. That is way short of the 9.265m shares traded this morning so still waiting for the identity of the buyer. Any thoughts?

Edgar
Probably - LOG administrator facing some tough decisions in the coming weeks. That said, could be LO, although I doubt it would sell at this time - unless it knows something we don't....
The contributing factors here are fascinating. It would make sense for LOG to negotiate a one-off sale of its 150m plus shares (to avoid negative pressure through drip selling) but I presume there would be few unassociated bidders. And, in any event, any bidder will know that BH is sitting in the background with a mighty chequebook. The unknown is Premier Milton but presumably it is in just for the short term gain and has no long term plan for its stake.

I am assuming that the LOG overhang is largely behind this retraction of the sp where 30p now seems like the proverbial glass ceiling. However, I am no expert by a long shot and would appreciate the thinking of market specialists.

Very much appreciate all the contributions to this board - technical, market and otherwise. Based on my take on the situation and the limited downside, I am continuing to add to my holding as and when funds are available. Yes, it is pushing my average price up but, frankly, the prospect of a ca 50% short term return on my recent purchases is just too good to miss.

Anyone willing/able to provide a summary of where things stand and prospective next moves/developments with timetable? Or do I just continue to read insult upon insult.

Trustatrade, Agree. That said, as a non-expert, it all makes positive reading apart from the loss of drilling mud "due to natural fracturing in the reservoir". Can't help but imagine that this challenge faces many, if not most, wells so hoping that the positive commercial aspects of the announcement offset the technical challenges encountered.
Either way, I am hopeful that the sp will continue its gradual climb today - 35p by close?

Leeming, Me too but it is a risk factor, no matter how small. That said, if UK stability was threatened, I would hope the Govt would step in.
Agree that the Trading Places clip is priceless but you have to say the scene where a topless Jamie Lee Curtis is talking to Dan Ackroyd tells you why you can't get too excited about stocks and shares.......

I haven't been involved here for some time but see a share price hovering around 90p. Would someone be willing to give a precis of what is happening and when value from TXP's gas fields and the recent surge in gas prices in the market will possibly be reflected in the sp? Specifically, are we looking at significant recovery during the rest of this year or during 2022/2023?