Member Info for aligator

GG, Thanks for the response, which I am 100% on board with. That said, sitting here with my conspiracy theory/MI5 hat on, I can't help but think that, with current gas shortages, caused effectively by reduced Russian (aka Gasprom et al) supply, already resulting in the collapse of 4 UK utility providers and Phase I and II IOG gas about to enter the Gasprom domain, the powers that be might just be a little nervous. Maybe I am being paranoid but it does deserve some thought.

Reading GG's last post, got me thinking that, with the current gas shortage due in part, if not primarily, to reduced Russian pipeline supply, a deal between IOG and Gasprom might not be perceived to be in the UK's best interests. Is anyone aware of any interest or focus by the OGA on this situation?

Nothing much to say here - all covered by the various postings of the last few days. That said, very happy to see the sp creeping upward - ca 25% in 1 week - and looking forward to another uptick on/around first gas announcement. I predicted 40-50p post first gas previously and will be interested to see what premium the current high gas prices could add to that range. The current situation - timely Russian interference! - is not going to go away quickly and, with winter approaching, we could see even higher prices.
All pleasant reading for us long term holders.

GG, All good reading and so far no production well issues reported. It would be interesting to get a revised core project NPV based on current gas prices and, in parallel, an estimate of sp potential (I stress that word) based thereon.
The key issue remains of a possible offer for the company. Given the BH overhang, I feel this will put off those we would ordinarily consider as potential bidders. That said, I still believe that IOG is now a perfect fit for CalE. Oh that we ended up with two competing bidders!

Correction - Advance Energy plc

SbMike, Advanced Energy Industries I believe

Linton, I have been in this share since it was 16p so already looking at substantial gains on those tranches. I share the view that this is a classic lassonde curve sp development for TXP (i.e. smaller natural resource companies developing sizeable projects) and am content to say that I have bought more shares above the current price. However, I am confident that the sp will return to the levels of a few months ago and considerably beyond. I therefore just don't understand your attitude and the spiteful tone of your posts where you wish great losses on fellow posters/investors in this company.

GG, Forgot about the carbon capture/storage programme which does no harm whatsoever in respect of the company's green credentials. However, as both Toro and Peak comment, the company needs to seriously improve its PR strategies and efforts and, further, entice its brokers to reconsider existing target prices based on utilised gas prices which are less than half current market.
This is where FMcK and the other non-execs should be using their background, experience and contacts to justify their fees.

Impressive indeed. Good to see a company dealing proactively with the challenge of reducing carbon emissions. Can't see this impacting the sp unduly but positive nonetheless.

GG, Agree totally that the company is vastly undervalued. If my memory is correct, the bulk of early stage valuations of IOG were based around 50-60p per therm and have not really been upgraded since. Indeed, Peel Hunt's disappointing June target price of 30p can only have been based on gas prices considerably below 104p.
I have given up trying to second guess the market but my earlier concerns about the sp hitting 30p by first gas are dissipating and I am beginning to think somewhere in the 50p target range.

Have to say I am disappointed with the sp reaction to the announcement, which in any project development of this nature is a serious milestone. Almost seems as if the market had already priced the announcement into the sp or it is being deliberately suppressed. That said, I am also a little hesitant about the off taker, as I feel the issue of Russian sanctions and Putin's response to date could result in some form of commercial block by Europe on Russian companies in the coming months . Maybe I am being too cautious at this advanced stage of our company but so many things have occurred during the journey to this point that I am reluctant to take it all for granted yet. Consequently, I also remain cautious about the sp hitting 30p or beyond, even with first gas.

Acknowledging the relative mountain the BoD had to climb in dealing with LOG situation and securing the farm-in by CalE, my personal view is that, since then, it has not covered itself in glory in terms of public announcements and investor relations in general. Yes, the reaction to the last RNS was overdone but I can't help but feel that, given what had occurred, it could have been handled better.
Of course, I am not saying that the BoD should misrepresent or otherwise but.time and time again over the past 18-24 months positive info has been released which has simply caused the sp to hesitate and/or drop.
As others write, we all know there are unique risks in investing in exploration/development companies but one has to remember that the sp is now below the 20p offer from Rockrose over 2 years ago.
Having got that off my chest I will say that I will continue to hang in there, if only because I have been involved in the share for many years and do believe that at some stage we should see a realistic market cap.

Not having the technical background nor knowledge to fully interpret the RNS, I am nonetheless surprised that the sp has dropped by ca 13% on the news. I have a fairly large holding of this stock, acquired over the past 7 years, and perhaps should, like others, take the opportunity to buy at what seems a low price. However, I have to remind myself that this time last week we were talking about 30p by last Friday. We all know that the market cap is undervalued and brokers would suggest by half. However, with gas production imminent, you have to ask yourself, what is actually going to move the sp to where it should be. Lombard Odier, to my mind, appear to have lost patience and taken some early profits, but nothing like I think we all felt would be reality at this point in the critical path of the core project. Quite where this leaves the company with regards to gas contract negotiations is unknown but, hopefully, the current high prices at this time in the summer, augur well for any agreement reached.
I have to admit that I have become frustrated with this situation but logic dictates than I hang in and ultimately benefit from what should be an inevitable rise through 40p.

Duster, I would certainly not mind if Kistos and CalE got into a p*ss*ng match over IOG. There is no guarantee that BH would bid at any cost to win such a contest (albeit IOG is now a perfect fit for its oil and gas portfolio) but Kistos would have to come up with a very attractive offer to tempt shareholders.
As for 26p, I hope your wrong and that we edge closer to 30p Friday close. That said, I think all long term shareholders now feel that there is not going to be a dramatic intra day take-off but, rather, a steady climb to wherever (45-50p in my own view) as we achieve first gas..

Usual panic reaction to an industry event that is experience by countless companies on countless wells around the globe. Yes, it is costly both in terms of time and money but is easily rectified by deviating slightly. The gas has gone nowhere, it is all about time value of money.
If there is anything like the gas estimated to exist in this region, subsequent proving up of reserves could launch this company and sp into orbit. Indeed, it will probably have a considerable impact on the global market.
I am holder in here for the long term.

Given past experience, I can see this creeping higher through the week only to drop back as short termers cash out. LOG's decisions will clearly impact the market but, with first gas imminent and companies seemingly queuing up to bid for production, i would not be surprised to see the administrator hold on for a while.
As others have posted, BH is just sitting watching potential bid developments which, given its spending power, may put some companies off making an approach. As I have said before, IOG is now a perfect fit for BH's oil & gas portfolio and, personally, I think a bid from CalE is only a question of when not if. Let's just hope that, in such scenario, it is after first gas and the sp going through 45p, but something tells me that we may see action before that.

Trek, I have a sizeable holding of TXP and also picked up a bunch of HE1 at an average of 13p so looking forward to first bagger in short order on that stock. Indeed, if initial drilling proves up anywhere near the helium reserves predicted then who knows, could be as good as TXP (5 bagger for me to date) or more. Nice comparative race to have in the portfolio!

@holdandhope, I don't normally react to such posts but I think you have made valid points and it will be interesting to see what response you get from TXP.
Maintaining a clear and level playing field for all investors has always been the basis for any market. We all know that the stock markets don't always play to these rules (how many times have we seen MM's manipulate share prices for their own gain - normally at the loss of private investors) and, sadly, what has happened hear has real overtones of providing an advantage to certain entities at the expense of others.
I hope you will feel able to post TXP's reply.

As gg notes, current high gas prices should result in a significant upward movement of the NPV of the core project. Whether this is translated into sp movement through 25p and on to 30p is, frankly, anyone's guess, given the shenanigans experienced over the past year. Clearly the LOG ownership overhang needs to be resolved but, once again, it is the MM's who are in control at this time.
Personally, I feel that current price-influencing components suggest a true value at this time of 45-50p, possibly in excess of that taking into account gg's figures.

Timing could be key here as the world is waking up to the fact that there is actually a gas shortage at this time. Prices have been rising steadily so the confluence of announcements from TXP and the state of the markets will hopefully be very beneficial to it in terms of price realised for gas produced.