Member Info for aligator

Not surprised with IOG's decision and the BoD can now refocus on the core project and delivering first gas in Q3 2021.
To my mind this deal was only realistic no greater than 2p per share for Deltic, which no doubt would have been rejected.
As for RRE's offer for IOG last year being realistic I have to say that, unless you fully understand the dynamics of IOG, you could easily fall into this thinking. The reality is that it was an extremely cheeky attempt by RRE to pick up IOG on the cheap, by a backdoor approach, and was doomed to failure from the beginning.
It is right and proper that IOG keep investigating prospective acreage opportunities and I am supportive of that, but the BoD has done itself no favours with the market on this interaction. Surely no announcement of interest should be made unless a huge amount of homework and research had been carried out on the target and to then, within a relatively short period, decide not to proceed casts questions and doubts on the BoD's wherewithal in such matters. It will certainly result in any further offers for other companies/acreage being treated with suspicion.

Agree that the week will be interesting but cannot currently support IOG becoming part of a significant UK gas player simply because of CalE and BH. I have long said that I think CalE's tie up with IOG on the core project is part of a longer term plan by BH to establish itself as a major gas player in the UK/Europe. And, frankly, BH's wealth will deter most companies from entering into a bidding war.
That said, these are strange times and who knows what could arise.

IOG has until cob 9 October to make an offer for Deltic. There is something about this situation to which could suggest there is more to a straight takeover offer than meets the eye. Both CalE/BH and the LOG Administrator will have been consulted and it is feasible the former could play a direct role in the deal.
Logic dictates that an offer will be made but whether it is enough for the Deltic board only time will tell.

The sp performance since a prospective offer would suggest to many that the mm's are not sold on Deltic being the long term answer to IOG's weakness in future development acreage. However, there is no way that IOG would have gone public on such a move without consulting both BH and the LOG administrator. I am therefore thinking there is more to this prospective bid than meets the eye.
That said, a non-bid scenario is fairly scary for both companies, albeit I also believe that Deltic would suffer more. The one positive factor is that IOG's core project continues to progress and, as other posters are predicting, the sp should start to head towards 25-30p in the next 6 months or so. Nothing has changed about the dynamics and economics of this project and so I am relatively relaxed about the situation, I have even been hovering up shares when funds are available.

I am smelling a lot of it recently, particularly from those who were talking the share price down late last year/early this year.

"A reassuring set of interims from IOG, whose management team continues its exemplary execution on multiple workstreams for Phase 1 of its core SNS gas project, keeping the project on track for start-up in Q3 2021...no mean feat given COVID-19 challenges. Our 42p/sh risked-NAV and price target remain unchanged, but recovering UK gas prices should encourage investors to revisit and rerate this impressive UK gas development company ahead of the onset of its growth journey next year."
Solid support for the company and core project progress. 42p - I would be delighted with that but, who knows, perhaps the period between now and first gas in the third quarter next year may bring us pleasant surprises, possibly in the form producing or development acquisitions, funded as required by CalE.
At ca 14.50p, this share appears to be a no-brainer buy.

The core project is now derisked to the point of there being little apparent downside, save for execution/completion risk, to the share price. Berkshire Hathaway are no fools and will be watching this over the next year very intently. Any offer for the company from a third party would in all probability be countered by a proposal from BH.
Meanwhile, upside may be forthcoming in the latest licensing round, reappraisal of existing reserves and joint ventures with BH/CalEnergy.
I am no market specialist so the idea of a 1p per month ascent sounds reasonable, albeit broker estimates suggest that we should be 30p plus by next August.
This has turned out to be a long haul for shareholders but, barring another covid19like pandemic or similar, patience should pay off in the second half of 2021.

Anyone got anything relevant and intelligent to contribute on this share?

So we have a couple of very positive RNS's from the company, advising that everything is on track time wise and cost wise and providing optimism that new licence awards could enhance gas reserves. But then, this morning, the sp drops 1.5p to 11p.
On what basis? There has been little trading of late so I can't imagine the MM's are long on stock and trying to offload. Anyone got an explanation?

It will be interesting to see where the opening price sits tomorrow morning. In the nearer term I could see 100p being breached with 150-200p feasible just based on the Cascadura facts. Anything else on top of that should just add positively to the story and push the sp onwards.

Excellent news contained in a professional statement from the company and good to see the share price react as one would expect, instead of dropping as so often happens in these situations on AIM. Hopefully more positive RNS's in the pipeline in the next month or so to underpin and push the sp north even further.
What is truly exciting are the 1P, 2P and 3P NPV's of $288m, $519m and $802m respectively, which, in approx £ terms, and based on 183m share sin issue, are worth ca £1.36, £2.62 and £3.82 per share. This would suggest that we are looking at a 1P target from the brokers of £2 plus with the possibility of this rising to £4.50 based on 3P figures. I appreciate that this all seems incredible pie in the sky but this is what the known data is now predicting.
So buys at 60p and above now are, in all possibility, going to look very handsome indeed in due course.
And all this without the benefit of future announcements over the next few months.
It all appears too good to be true but, having bought in at an average of 17p I for one will be holding and watching this company like a hawk!
Thoughts welcome.

Peak, Not sure what you seek to examine here by way of potential impact upon demand for natural gas. Carbon sequestration is the extraction of, inter alia, carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and its storage in liquid or solid form. Since CO2 is inert, it is not a substitute for natural gas. However, I was thinking that CO2 could be injected under pressure into existing gas structures, to i) enhance recovery of natural gas in place and ii) left there as subterranean storage. Is this along the lines of your thinking?

Peak, I am not a technical expert but this is my take on the situation.
Development is continuing in hydrogen and nitrogen based fuels to power car engines, which have far less harmful emissions than fossils fuels . I am also aware that studies are now focusing on how to scale up such technology for large power generation plants.
However, this is all about infrastructure and therefore time (and money) and most western governments are talking around 2050 as the target for zero emissions which we all know, barring any related discoveries in the interim, may well be pushed back by up to 10 years or so. In the meantime, what powers our industry and homes in the UK? The reality is that gas continues to account for around 42% of power generation in this country and will continue to do so until either substitute, less harmful fuels, can be introduced or nuclear fission is reconsidered.
The gas infrastructure in the UK has taken many decades (if not over a century) to install. I have no idea if it could be used for the transmission of nitrogen or hydrogen but, if it could and based on current technology, it will still require liquefaction at some stage.
This suggests to me that natural gas will continue to play a major role in UK power generation for several decades to come, a period which will probably see IOG's core project depleted beforehand. In such a scenario one could assume that gas prices will continue to reflect supply and demand. Indeed, if there was to be a major cutback in natural gas exploration and development, it could have a significant positive impact on gas prices.
All my own thinking and would welcome parallel or opposite views.

Viaro energy was only registered with Companies House on 19 February this year. Something does not seem right here.

duster, the core project is as good a derisked undertaking as you will find anywhere on AIM. In addition the company appears to be leveraging positively off CalE's farm-in partnership and benefitting from more lucrative terms on several contracts as a result of the impact of the pandemic. First gas next year will put IOG in among the larger gas producers in the north sea and other corporate developments in the interim, including the next licensing round, could see it announce new initiatives, either singularly or with CalE. The projected numbers suggest an SP around 40p but the journey to that level will have to deal with the LOG overhang. That said, at 11.67p, and based on the foregoing, this would appear to be a buy opportunity.

This is now a development project with many technical facets involved and monthly, if not weekly, critical path objectives and other milestones being reached as we speak. It would therefore behove the company and benefit the sp to issue regular updates on progress rather than having long gaps in communication. Certainly, one would expect that the BoD makes regular reports to CalEnergy/BH under the farm-in agreement so why not share that info with shareholders? It could only be beneficial to the sp.

Placing doubled in size and still substantially oversubscribed. Appears to be a real opportunity for topping up or lowering your average price, unless you are already in below 8p. This company has few global competitors and is operating in a field which has immense focus from government and oil and gas majors which all suggests that this is a buy and hold at this time.

I have had experience of butd involving other shares and her (correct butd?) negativity pervades throughout other boards.
I gave up on this poster some time ago and give no undue attention to what she writes. I suggest others do the same - just don't be drawn into inane message exchanges.

P2p, You are probably right. As I posted earlier, I cashed out at 20p plus and, having invested £20k at the outset, made a 6 figure profit in 2 months - certainly one of my better decisions of late. I suspect some investors in this stock either left it too late to buy or sold at a small profit and are now bitter with the sp performance. That would explain the negative posts on here.
Who knows where ETX is headed - this is an absolute boom and bust industry. However, some research and realistic trading strategy can reap solid rewards even in such sectors.

butd, I noticed that you had been avidly talking this share up only about 2 months ago - with epithets of management, development strategy, potential covid19 application, etc. Was that when you had just bought in or were building your holding?
You now appear to have gone 180 degrees and your negative comments now, just weeks later, suggest you have disposed of your holding but would like to get back in?
Am I correct?