My 2 cents' worth26 Jan 2022 14:40
Today's RNS is good news for those in the glass-half-full camp and underwhelming for the-glass-half empty folks. Both views are legitimate and can easily be justified. No reason to bash anyone IMO. While I am happy with the fact that guidance was met towards the upper end of the range and no major problem occurred, one should not forget it is reduced guidance that was met. 12 months ago the company "Expected Group production of between 4,100 mtV and 4,350 mtV in 2021". https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BMN/q4-and-fy2020-operational-update-correction/14855683 The Q1-2021 operational update cautioned "Group guidance expected towards the lower end of 4,100 mtV and 4,350 mtV" and the annual report revised "Group production guidance [...] to between 3,400 mtV and 3,600 mtV."
Now this was met. The fly in the ointment is Vanchem's 262mtV due to Upper Seam problems resulting in kiln ring formation. I consider this usual teething problems that will be overcome. While I am still a bit disappointed with regard to 2021 production figures, I view the company's stock as clearly undervalued at current levels.
The share price is the result of markets having lost faith in the company's ability to consistently deliver sound operational performance meeting guidance. I hope management has learnt a lesson and will never again over-promise and under-deliver because this is what kills trust and crushes the share price. As they say, trust is lost in a second and takes a long time to rebuild.
Having said that, I am taking advantage of the currently depressed share price. I believe a multi-year growth trend for utility scale VRFB applications is just about to start with many positive implications for our company. Once this trend gains traction and a wider audience takes notice, Bushveld Minerals could even become a stockmarket's darling.