Member Info for alfredh

The heavy selling is exactly what I am talking about. The market has lost faith in BMN management and takes every opportunity to sell into strength. "Once that has cleared"... What do you think, when is it going to happen? Not before the market re-gains confidence in BMN's ability to deliver as promised IMO.

My view of Russion material entering the Chinese market has been further supported by this week's price action. 80% FeV price China +$1 during the week, USA +$4, EU +$4. V2O5 Flake China: -CNY5.000, EU +$0,20. The divergence is obvious and it won't be long before arbitrage trading sets in and material is transferred from China to other markets.

What's also become clear recently is the fact that even a massive price increase for Vanadium does not lift BMN stock anwhere close to cheerleaders' expectations. What is necessary is a few quarters of flawless execution where the company actually does sell reasonable amounts of material in order to make adecent profit from it. This is the only way to convince the markets that a higher multiple is justified. No unplanned shutdowns, "unprotected industrial action" (LOL), lame excuses. Just execute and deliver!

Flow, you wrote "In case, for some reason, the production of V by Largo is less than expected. This could mean more V supply issues, and might benefit the V price in general. We will see"

All I did is point out that "production" is already known and the only thing "to be seen" is the financial side of things.

Come on, one thing is production figures, the other one financial results. Just like BMN reports production and financials separately. What's so difficult about it?

What are you talking about? Q4 production figures had been reported back in January! https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/LGO/news/6055652164458614/Largo_Reports_Fourth_Quarter_and_Full_Year_2021_Operational_Results_Sales_Exceeds_Lower_End_of_Guidance_Despite_RainRelated_Production_Disruption_in_NovemberDecember_Provides_2022_Guidance

Obviously production had been hit hard by heavy rain. Remarkable how they built the drainage AFTER the event. Duh! The only question remaining is what's the fallout financially.

"Why would BMN worry about China shutting 5% of the country when 73% of its vandaium is sold to US, Europe and RoW? Doesn't add up, does it?"

It does add up and I have answered youre question already. Just read: "in a second step material will find its way from China to other markets."

The supply is not going to disappear. It's going to find alternative ways to consumers.

A few remarks on a couple topics that have been discussed here in recent days. I know this post is going to attract lots of hate speech from Bushveld Ultras but I give a monkey's.

During the last two trading days China stocks tanked ~10%. The trigger IMO is the uptick in Omicron cases that suggest China might be due for a major shutdown in an effort to contain the outbreak. Chinese vaccines are less effective against the Omicron strain compared to other (in particular mRNA) vaccines which leaves the country vulnerable. The Chinese zero Covid regime is about to fail. At least this is the markets' view, thus the harsh reaction. Add this to already existing problems like the housing market issues (Evergrande et al.) and you might expect a downturn in the country's economy leading to reduced demand for steel and to a lesser extent commodities in general.

Regarding the other V-team member's decline yesterday it's the same market forces at work. In addition they are likely to need a capital injection in order to finance their planned expansion. They published plans to build an Ilmenite plant next to their existing V2O5 plant and a TiO2 plant close to the coast and the city of Salvador. The estimated capex is USD25M and USD 97M for phase 1 alone. Even with the support of elevated Vanadium prices I don't see them being able to finance the expansion from cashflow. They have filed a shelf prospectus for CAD750M which makes a lot of sense given the envisaged capex. As it is usually the case, all kinds of games are being played on the way leading up to the announcement of a share offering, private placement, not offering, whatever. I'd expect the stock to remain highly volatile.

Regarding Russian sanctions it is naive to believe Russian producers would send their employees home and shut down the business. Countries like China and India that do not sanction Russia will purchase these materials at a discount. They are in a position to almost dictate the price. In a first step this will dampen Chinese prices (you can already see this in recently published V prices where the US and Europe continue to see price increases whereas China does not) and in a second step material will find its way from China to other markets. The Chinese will either consume it or sell it for a profit. The same applies to oil and other commodities from Russia. Just one example that made it to the headlines yesterday: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/14/energy/india-russia-oil/index.html

I just pointed out costs as well as the number of shares outstanding increases. Why should these simple facts be ignored as you demanded? Enthusiasm meets reality?

"The world is suffering high inflation and with oil price, a basic loaf goes up, so it’s no secret that cost may have increased a bit. "

So you finally agree to what I said.

"You will hear about the sale of the stock pile being sold at higher V prices and V prices being up what could be 100% by the end of the month. "

And I never expressed ANY doubt about it. So what's your problem?

You'll hear more about costs pressures when bushfeld issues the next quarterly report, LOL.

That was correct if 1. Bushfeld's costs wouldn't increase and 2. the number of shares outstanding was constant. Costs have increased to a much lesser extent compared to the price of V. Nevertheless prices for diesel, gas, electricity have gone up as we all know. The profit per share is diminished by every new share issued.

That's what's going to happen when you pay with undervalued shares rather than cash. Duferco is not the one to blame.

IMO it's gonna rerate once Bushveld has earned the market's confidence that it will consistently be able to execute and deliver according to its own projections. Trust is destroyed in a second but can take years to rebuild. So this is all about execution. Vanadium prices do help but can not do the job alone. Also keep in mind the number of shares has grown so stock prices are not comparable 1:1.

I knew this would happen, sigh. No, raffym, you are wrong. There is no "agenda". Bushveld and Largo are my 2nd and 3rd largest holdings and the two "V-team" members combined are my No. 1 investment by far. Sadly, the "you must have a hidden agenda" bite reflex is characteristic for chat boards nowadays.

My point is this: The prospects for flow batteries aren't as clear-cut as some might want you to believe. Long duration energy storage is going to be comprised of a mix of technologies. Which one might evolve as the preferred one is yet to be decided.

This might not be applauded by everone. But I think it is important for investors to get the whole picture, developments like this included. https://www.energy-storage.news/second-eight-hour-lithium-ion-battery-system-picked-in-california-long-duration-storage-procurement/

Clearly the trend towards VRFBs is gaining traction. Recently I've come across multiple announcements that confirm it. The most recent one looks like a copy cat attempt to me: https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/tng.asx-6A1080095/
Johnny come lately or is there enough room for many players in the field, or both?

Oh dear. With regard to Wolf you seem to clearly have the facts wrong. Resource Capital Fund invested >USD 80M AFTER the severe underperformance became evident. Despite that kind of money they failed to turn the ship around. At below 80% planned output (let alone <50%) no project will get anywhere close to break even, ever. A myriad of meaningless links won't change this simple fact.

Just as a reminder, WRES in the most recent quarter operated at 13,9% planned output. Wait a minute and let this sink in. 13,9%! WRES even threw everybody a clue, wink, wink: EM separator fault, another maintenance shutdown, cost increase "In January 2022, the Company was notified that [LNG] prices have increased by 425%."). This is corporate parlance for "our losses are growing even bigger". Running low on cash. They were, however, able to find a bit of dumb money just like Wolf was. So it isn't all over yet.

Every board/company has its die-hard cheerleader Ultra who acts like the company was his favourite Football Club. He will attack everybody who criticizes it, no matter how justified. This also reminds me strongly of Wolf. There was one guy who fiercely defended the company, no matter how baldy they failed, even after they went into receivership.

The debate circling around ore grades is a distraction from what's really important. The plan was this: Throughput 2Mtpa by 2019, 3Mtpa by 2021 resulting in 250kMTUpa by 2021. The reality is this: Most recent quarter annualized throughput: 241kt, that's 32% of nameplate. WO3 production: 5818MTU = 13,9% nameplate. Goodness me, a year ago they were on a 4 workdays per week schedule and beat that!
Of course you can come up with a new "updated plan" twice a week and then "beat" it. What you can not do though is make a profit with that kind of dismal production figures. -> WRES = WLFE repeated.

Glad to hear they didn't mention it! Any EV that replaces an ICE vehicle and emits less CO2 than the latter, is a plus. One has to consider the CO2 emissions over the life of the product, not just its manufacture.