Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
""The slower than expected ramp up to this production capacity has been disappointing contributing to the revised production guidance."
I was referring to this paragraph. The "slower than expected ramp up" happend despite record high V prices, before Covide and without SA Govt. involvement. The reduced guidance also happened before all that.
Further, if Vametco's annual production run rate was 3,750mtV sinc 2019, why is 2022 guidance "between 2350mtV and 2550mtV" only? What's the excuse this time?
Fortune on 22/08/2018:
"I am pleased to see the completion of Phase Two of the Vametco multi-phased
expansion project, which was successfully completed on time and within budget,
bringing Vametco's annual production run rate to 3,750 mtV."
annual production Vametco:
2019: 2832mtV
2020: 2646mtV
2021: 2453mtV
"The slower than
expected ramp up to this production capacity has been disappointing
contributing to the revised production guidance."
Well, I kind of get used to it. Repeatedly missing guidance certainly builds a repution of over-promising and under-delivering. That's why the market discounts BMN stock. 9 months of meeting (reduced) guidance can not revert a reputation that has been built over years.
"Phase Three of the expansion plan is scheduled to increase Vametco's
annualised production capacity to over 5,000 mtV by the end 2019."
It's 2022 now and actual guidance for Vametco this year is "between 2350mtV and 2550mtV". Including Vanchem's envisaged "Production guidance of between 1,750 mtV and 1,850 mtV." it's 4100mtV - 4400mtV combined, still a far cry from the 2019 prediction.
to see share trades go by at a price lower than what I am currently bidding. It happened numerous times to me. The number of shares traded at the lower price is greater than my offer to buy. So my ourder COULD have been filled. Obviously somebody is being taken for a ride as he got less money for his shares than he could have got. At the same time I am left without shares although I was bidding more than the guy who actually got shares. What kind of grey market is this?
was >20M shares during the first half of March. This should have presented a good opportunity for Duferco to sell what they think they have to sell. Here is hope that they will be no longer in the list of major shareholders once it is updated again. Does Bushveld issue updates to the list on a regular basis, like once a month, or does it happen rather sporadically?
I think the price of V should stay at elevated levels for the foreseeable future but with regard to BMN's ability to avoid another blunder I am in wait-and-see mode. Last year's shortfall is too fresh to be totally forgotten.
"So do you think BMN is a good investment or a bad investment at this sp?"
IMO this is dependent mainly upon two things: 1. The company's performance, in particular its ability to meet guidance and 2. the future price of V.
The heavy selling is exactly what I am talking about. The market has lost faith in BMN management and takes every opportunity to sell into strength. "Once that has cleared"... What do you think, when is it going to happen? Not before the market re-gains confidence in BMN's ability to deliver as promised IMO.
My view of Russion material entering the Chinese market has been further supported by this week's price action. 80% FeV price China +$1 during the week, USA +$4, EU +$4. V2O5 Flake China: -CNY5.000, EU +$0,20. The divergence is obvious and it won't be long before arbitrage trading sets in and material is transferred from China to other markets.
What's also become clear recently is the fact that even a massive price increase for Vanadium does not lift BMN stock anwhere close to cheerleaders' expectations. What is necessary is a few quarters of flawless execution where the company actually does sell reasonable amounts of material in order to make adecent profit from it. This is the only way to convince the markets that a higher multiple is justified. No unplanned shutdowns, "unprotected industrial action" (LOL), lame excuses. Just execute and deliver!
Flow, you wrote "In case, for some reason, the production of V by Largo is less than expected. This could mean more V supply issues, and might benefit the V price in general. We will see"
All I did is point out that "production" is already known and the only thing "to be seen" is the financial side of things.
What are you talking about? Q4 production figures had been reported back in January! https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/LGO/news/6055652164458614/Largo_Reports_Fourth_Quarter_and_Full_Year_2021_Operational_Results_Sales_Exceeds_Lower_End_of_Guidance_Despite_RainRelated_Production_Disruption_in_NovemberDecember_Provides_2022_Guidance
Obviously production had been hit hard by heavy rain. Remarkable how they built the drainage AFTER the event. Duh! The only question remaining is what's the fallout financially.