Member Info for alfredh

The pivotal thing is this: Neither Vametco nor Vanchem did produce close to what they are supposed to produce. Vametco fell short 25% and Vanchem came in 31% short of stated capacity. That's a lot of V not produced, hence a lot of money lost, particularly in a high price environment. It is comical to see how some explain to me why a plant running well short of capacity was a good thing. It is not. It's money left on the table, it's a profit not made. And as long as it remains the case the share price won't appreciate. As simple as that.

"Vametco not at full capacity. Of course it isn’t and likely very rarely ever was."

Wow! Just a short while ago I was told Vametco production actually BEAT capacity. LOL Listen up, Ben!

And your point is? The connection to Vametco production is what exaclty?

Yeah, just go on denying the fact that Vanchem sells FeV, I'm fine with that. But that's just another attempt to distract from the task at hand, i.e. Vametco's production shortfall vs. its own capacity announcement. The conversation goes a long way explaining how some can be happy with the reported numbers as it has become obvious they don't understand what's being reported. LOL

Goodness me. "Group" is not Vametco. Group is Vametco + Vanchem. Do we really have to discuss Bushveld 101? You're here for such a long time and don't understand the most basic numbers.

Ben,

Bushveld Vanadium = Vametco + Vanchem. This is how they break out production figures for many quarters now. Have a look at any recent operational update and you'll find this confirmed.

AFAICS Vametco stated capacity is 3750mtV per annum since summer of 2018. Vanchem is in addition to this, ca. 900mtV per annum up until now, increasing to 2600mtV per annum by the end of 2022 by ramping up kiln 3.

As you might know, they break out the numbers separately. Vametco capacity 3750mtVpa, Vanchem ~900mtVpa, to be pu to 2600mtVpa by the end of 2022. So, Vametco sales fell short of Vametco capacity by 25% on average as I said.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bushveld_minerals/news/rns/story/w6lp79w

3750mtV since 2018! Do you homework before accusing others.

Oh did they, really?

Vametco output during the last 4 quarters was 63%, 82%, 75%, 80% of stated capacity. That's an average shortfall of 25%. A prime example of "over-promise and under-deliver" that keeps pushing the share price lower and lower.

How about the mini-grid? Financial close was expected before the end of 2021. During the Q1 call Fortune stated they were still waiting for financial close and thre was no update ever since. This means financial close still did not occur thus the project remains stalled. Cellcube lists the Bushveld mini-grid as "to be commissioned during Q2-2022". There is just no way this id going to happen! So, how exactly is this "on time and on budget"?

Often times I hear the company just had to issue more news releases, "improve communication" to get the share price going. IMO this is utter rubbish. First of all, why would the company hold back good news from being published if there was any? Secondly, in order to communicate, you simply have to have something to communicate first, other than meaningless blather. IMO one press release per quarter would suffice if that press release would tell the world Bushveld is actually delivering on its promises meaning

1. output was in reasonable vicinity of stated capacity
2. projects were advancing on time and on budget.

Unfortunately the company misses on both fronts for quite some time now and as long as this remains the case, even a bombardment of meaningless RNSs won't make up for these operational missteps.

You have been "supporting" BMN all the way down from 40p to 9p disseminating the same old story all the time: BMN is undervalued, undervalued, undervalued. BMN managment is not to blame, not to blame, not to blame. Guidance missed, so what, undervalued! Output way short of capacity, so fookin undervalued! You sound like the proverbial broken record. BMN stock is down almost on a daily basis for 6 weeks in a row now. Someting is wrong with your story.

At the start of February, before Russia inflicted war on Ukraina, the EU FeV price was $39,25. Shortly after the war had begun it peaked at $62,75 (up 60%) and then fell to $39,75 today, almost exactly to where it came from.

BMN stock started February at 9.34p. Shortly after the war had begun it peaked at 15p intraday (up 60%) and then fell to 9,08p today, almost exactly to where it came from.

But never mind! Keep pointing out how great the US FeV price is holding up. I bet that will be of great relief to those watching their money disappear day by day.

Vanchem does produce FeV, no doubt about it. The website clearly states:

Vanchem processing:
Step 1: Crushing, milling and magnetic separation to produce a magnetite concentrate with average grades of approximately 1.65% V2O5 in-magnetite;
Step 2: Salt-roasting of concentrate. The concentrate is roasted with sodium salts in a kiln at ~1,150°C to form a water-soluble sodium vanadate material;
Step 3: Leaching and purification, involving dissolution of roasted vanadium concentrate in water, purification and precipitation of vanadium through the addition of ammonium sulphate, followed by drying and then processing in a reducing environment to produce an ammonium metavanadate (“AMV”) product;
Step 4: The AMV is de-ammoniated and melted to produce vanadium pentoxide flakes – a primary product. The AMV is also used in other processes to produce a spectrum of vanadium chemicals; and
Step 5: vanadium pentoxide is reduced by aluminium in the aluminothermic process in the presence of iron to produce ferrovanadium – a primary product.

The deliveries at question are Nitrovan deliveries. Whether or not the antidumping duties apply/applied to Nitrovan, as of now is unclear to me.

The International Trade Administration lists current AD/CVD proceedings
https://www.trade.gov/data-visualization/adcvd-proceedings
Select Country South Africa, Product all, Commodity Other metals and other articles of metal
Status is "Current Order", next Sunset initiation: 2025. Why would they list it as "Current Order" when it is not in effect? I think it might be POSSIBLE (I don't say it is the case) that antidumping duties override broader regulations like AGOA. Unlike others I want to be certain what the situation actually is like. I will not go with the most convenient possibility just because I'D like it to be the correct one.

Elliot, customs documents explicitly mention delivery occurred in 20" containers. Usually the material is packed in 1t bags and 20 of these bags fit into a 20" container. They are not 100% full, thus ~19t deliveries.

ramping

Vanchem does sell FeV, too. Stop that "negativity" rubbish, you're childish. It'*s your perception, nothing else. Guess what, I deepm your posts being rampant, over-optimistic, rose-coloured. You consider yourself a "supporter". Does this impose any "duty" on you? See...

That depends on whether the price is being reported on duty paid basis. In the case of Ferrovanadium the antidumping duties applied to SA and CN producers only (I have seen FeV antidumping duties applied to Korean imports, too). In a hypothetical case where the main producers of a good have duties applied to their product, all domestic producers will increase their prices to match the artificially increased price. That's the purpose of the antidumping duty in the first place, support domestic producers by increasing prices to a level where they can make a profit and survive. This means once the duties apply, the domestic price of the good is higher than without the duty and the higher price would then be reported by pricing agencies as the "domestic price".

With regard do Bushveld LB21 almost convinced me. The 10% doubt relates to the questions 1) whether the AGOA overrides antidumping duties or not and 2) how a US price can be ~50% higher than CN and EU prices despite the fact that transport is a negligible cost factor. I have not seen FeV on any sanctions list but maybe LB21 can help me out with that, too.

Ah, much better, 90% convinced. Will have to read and research a bit more and will come back to you. Thanks a lot for the hint!

Possibly this includes "standard duties" and excludes temporary antidumping duties? The document I cited indicates antidumping duties had been applied to SA originating ferrovanadium. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/08/20/2020-18287/ferrovanadium-from-the-republic-of-south-africa-and-the-peoples-republic-of-china-continuation-of
Vanadium was on the critical elements list in 2018, too so my conclusion is this: Being listed as critical element does not *automatically* remove antidumping duties. The document states "Commerce intends to initiate the next five-year review of the Orders not later than 30 days prior to the fifth anniversary of the effective date of continuation." In other words: They didn't care about V being listed as critical element. The next review would be in 2023. I have not found any document that says these antidumping duties had been removed. Of course I am willing to be convinced otherwise but a mere assertion is not enough.

The query returns "7202.92.0000 Ferrovanadium". Should I draw any conclusion from it?

If European FeV is mainly mined and processed in Russia and Ruassia is sanctioned or about to be sanctioned, wouldn't you expect EU prices to explode (sudden absence of supply) and US prices remaind lower as their supply remains the same?

sorry Vanchem specialty...