Member Info for alfredh

[url=https://ibb.co/GTDMfZX][img]https://i.ibb.co/4dLSwbc/BMN-rel.png[/img][/url]

"Very profitable year", really? That's exactly the hopium that's being sold here on a daily basis. Production continues to be threatened by endless loadshedding/corruption while inflationary pressures (costs) are skyrocketing. How does this indicate profits at all? The price of Vanadium is just one factor among many. And as the chart clearly shows, it's not the most important one.

A year ago the Vanadium price (V2O5) was $8,70. Today it's $8.90, up 2,3%.
A year ago BMN stock was at 9,40p. Today it's 4.80p, down -49%

Looking two years back, the Vanadium price was at $5,35. Today it's $8.90, up 66%.
Two years ago BMN stock was at 22.9p. Today it's 4.80p, down -79%.

Again, the Vanadium price is up 66% while Bushveld stock is down -79%. It must be asked: What relevance did the Vanadium price have for the company's share price performance compared to the company's many disappointments?

"Unlike Vametco, Vanchem purchases its power through its local electricity distributor, the Emalahleni municipality.
The municipality imposes periods of total power loss (and not curtailment) during load shedding, resulting in
almost total shutdown of the plant, thereby impacting Vanchem's operational performance. The plant has
generators to power the kiln but not the rest of the plant. The use of generators comes at a significant cost
implication due to the current cost of diesel."

"almost total shutdown of the plant" - despite generators!

To be clear, my response was directed towards Larky's post.

You missed the point. Bushveld issued the following statement regarding guidance: "·Production guidance of 1,350 mtV - 1,450 mtV is maintained, supported by Kiln 3 ramping-up as planned, although, severe load shedding poses a risk to Vanchem's ability to meet guidance."

Today we know there has been severe load shedding during all of Q4, hence Vanchem's guidance is likely to be missed as I had pointed out back then. If so, results will disappoint yet again and the market will react accordingly. Self-inflicted damage that could have been avoided.

"Eskom hikes load-shedding stages after four units break down — here is the new schedule "Eskom has increased the load-shedding stages it will implement in the next few days following several power station unit breakdowns. In a statement at 16:28 on Wednesday, 28 December 2022, the utility said it increased the evening’s load-shedding from stage 3 to stage 4."

https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/475099-eskom-hikes-load-shedding-stages-after-four-units-break-down-here-is-the-new-schedule.html

Surprise, surprise! As it turns out, Q4 is impacted by loadshedding from start till the end. There goes BMN's Vanchem guidance down the drain as had to be expected. Will they once again repeat their mistake and mislead the market by issuing guidance that assumes there was no loadshedding going forward?

@pb940: Rest assured, if Bushveld struck a new power supply deal that would materially improve the situation at Vanchem, we'd hear about it. Their remarks re possibly renegotiating Vanchem power supply was one of the many "coulds".

"Yes, load shedding is a problem, an external problem that is out of BMNs hands."

You missed the point. Issuing guidance that is likely going to be missed, is solely in BMN's hands.

"If BMN can get the Vametco Mini Grid operational, that would be the perfect case study..."

You missed that point, too. We were discussing Vanchem guidance. The mini grid (covering just 10% of the plant's energy needs) howeverr, is located at the Vametco site which is not as much affected by load shedding in the first place.

Indeed, a lot of "could". As it is always the case with BMN.

May I remind you of the fact that I had pointed out how Vanchem's guidance is going to be missed and how others then said load shedding would come to an end soon as summer approaches. These quotes show how they were wrong and how my thesis re Vanchem is on track. I know you rampers can't stand any opposing opinion but I could not care less. See you when Vanchem misses.

"In a statement published in mid-November, Eskom said prolonged load-shedding would continue to be implemented over the “next few months” as the utility takes a large amount of generation offline.

“Due to the vulnerability and unpredictability of the power system, coupled with the major capital projects, maintenance and major repairs to be executed starting during the next few months, the risk of continued load-shedding remains quite high,” said Eskom COO Jan Oberholzer.

When MyBroadband asked the utility whether this forecast applied to this year’s holiday period, Eskom would only refer us back to the statement.

“Regarding any load-shedding outlook for the next 6-12 months — including the period you have mentioned — kindly refer to the statement Eskom published on 15 November 2022,” Eskom said."

https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/471803-first-ever-christmas-load-shedding-on-the-cards-for-south-africa.html

is being posted here. SECTOR PERFORM is neither 60 nor 600p. It's 6p and that is ambitious enough!

https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/469989-government-scrambles-to-find-money-for-eskom-to-buy-diesel.html

"The outages are expected to deepen this week."

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=BMN&share=Bushveld-Minerals

"Eskom has warned South Africans to expect prolonged load-shedding over the next six to 12 months as the power utility undertakes major capital projects and repairs that will reduce available generation capacity."

https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/469153-eskom-warns-of-prolonged-load-shedding-for-the-next-year.html

"With the Electrolyte Plant over 80% complete there will be revenue from this after quarter one 2023." That's a prime example of the BS being spread here day in day out. The plant is PROJECTED to come online in "H1 2023". That means Q2 at best. And in BMN's case it means probably some time during summer, if we're lucky.

"Realistic targets"? LMAO. One week through November we're still dealing with load shedding. https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/467971-all-day-load-shedding-until-further-notice.html Vanchem guicance was tight before but now rest assured it won't be met. Remember annual production guidance was lowered TWICE already. So much for BMN and "realistic targets".

"but I don't think FM deliberately mislead anyone" I don't think so either. Nevertheless he made these statements that misled the market to expect Bushveld to produce 3035/3750tpa and then failed to deliver. In fact he never came close to 3750. Success in the stock market is all about managing expectations and Fortune did a HORRIBLE job at this. Time and time again he put out targets that he later missed. Think about it for a moment: Even after the so-called "expansions to 3750tpa" there was not a single year in which they managed to meet the old 3035t target!

pb940: "Pretty sure they will be able to provide a mountain of mitigating evidence for why they haven't managed to achieve the production they expected."

LOL, I'm pretty sure too. That, however, doesn't address the issue at hand: Why mislead the market to believe it were so when in reality it isn't?

The problem remains the same since 2017 till the present day. Notorious overpromising and under-delivering. Nobody cares about their ever changing lame excuses. At the end of the day it all comes down to this: If Fortune can't keep his promises, he at least should keep his mouth shut to prevent the stock from being pummeled time and time again.

The facts speak for themselves: Back in 2017 they announced 3035tpa (759t per Q) Phase 1 nameplate, 2018 they announced 3750tpa (938t per Q) Phase 2 nameplate "successfully completed". 5/4 years later, actual production figures are:

Q4-2021: 700t -> -8% miss P1, -25% miss P2.
Q1-2022: 749t -> -1% miss P1, -20% miss P2.
Q2-2022: 477t -> -37% miss P1, -49% miss P2
Q3-2022: 666t -> -12% miss P1, -28% miss P2.

Even the old P1 number can't be met. And this is where the rubber meets the road. Disappointment all along ...and people here wonder why the stock is in the gutter.

"They announced the work they believed would achieve the expected increase when the work was finished rather than wait a year to confirm it."

No, this is not what they said. They said "Bushveld has successfully completed the second phase [which] increases the annual production capacity from 3,035 mtV, achieved in Phase One, to 3,750 mtV". No "believe", "hope", expect" in this press release. They said it TAKES (fact!) capacity to 3750mtpa while in fact it never came close to it.

The very same applies to their statement they had reached an annual production rate of 3035tpa once Phase 1 was completed. The Q3-2017 production of 669mtV fell -12% short of this target. The following 4 quarters came in at -29%, -4%, -17% and -29%. Ever since they made the Phase 1 announcement, they missed nameplate by -14.6% on average (Q2-2017 to Q3-2022). And that despite their announcement of ANOTHER "successful" expansion allegedly reaching 3750tpa in Q2-2018 (which they missed by an average of -31% since then).

It's not a one-time event. It's not lesson learned. It's ongoing. And it's continuing to harm Bushveld's share price!

"So ... mistakes were made 4 years ago. Lessons have been learned."

The sad thing is: Obviously not! Fortune continues the habit of notoriously overpromising and under-delivering. Nurmerous times has he made promises that he didn't keep and it's continuing like this to the present day. Why did he maintain Vanchem's guidance when every 9-year-old can see it's almost guaranteed to fail? This is the next disaster in the making, the next time the stock is going to get pummeled. You can't make promises (or announce as a fact) to the market things that you can't deliver. Every time you do, your stock is taken to the woodshed, receiving a good beating. And well deserved. As a "side-effect" your credibility is destroyed. The market won't believe you anymore thus it applies a hefty discount to the share price.

Again, This is NOT a one-time thing of the past. It's a habit that must come to an end before BMN stock can be valued like it should be. Unfortunately, the most recent quarterly report clearly demonstrates Fortune hasn't learnt from past mistakes.