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Stock is down again. As it is usually the case here, all hopes for a share price lift due to an operational update have been crushed. The cheerleaders continually refuse to learn. BMN share price remains in striking distance to its multi-year low. Funny how stating facts brings out the dimwits army.
Comical. For how many years do you keep telling ppl the prospects were great, sky's the limit? In reality, however, the stock tanked further and further. Once you turn bearish, that's when ppl should start buying! LMAO
with regard to yesterday's assessment.
https://www.energy-storage.news/flow-battery-sector-responds-we-can-meet-specs-for-513mw-south-africa-tender/
"flow battery projects will not meet the RTE requirement"
https://www.energy-storage.news/south-africa-513mw-tender-has-challenging-requirements-and-flow-batteries-do-not-fulfil-spec/
The rude (or ridiculous) thing about pdub's post is the fact that he completely ignores the point that hmhg makes: Missed opportunity cost. pdub - as usual - replies with a flood of words that simply don't address the issue that hmhg had raised. That's exactly the definition of being ignorant.
Posted on 10/25/2022, more than 3 months ago:
Quote: "Vanchem quarterly production of 350t is an encouraging improvement over Q2 (191t). However, the press release implied the next miss ahead: Indeed, Vanchem's (already lowered!) annual guidance is maintaned at 1350-1540t. However, Q1-Q3 production = 765t. In order to meet the lower end of guidance 585t are required in Q4, equivalent to 90% of nameplate (2600tpa). Q3 production rate was 54% of nameplate with the September rate lower than August's. Achieving an average production rate of 90% nameplate in Q4 at Vanchem, up from 54% in Q3, would be highly unlikely during "normal times" already but is perfectly unattainable with the current rate of load shedding. Rest assured, Vanchem is going to miss the already lowered annual guidance! "
That's cheap, broken record. Right at the time when the forecast was made, I as well as others had criticized the continued overpromising. It was obvious back then that Vanchem guidance was guaranteed to be missed unless a miracle happened. That's the exact oppositve of what you invent to be "hindsight forecast". Uuuh, guess what, the miracle didn't happen. It's yet another case of overpromising and under-delivering. Hence the stock gets pummeled, well deserved. Just as cindercone said: Mujapelo doesn't learn from his many past mistakes.
"South Africans should expect continuous stage 2 to stage 3 power cuts for the next 24 months"
That's pretty clear. And as we have accustomed to, Eskom never fails to disappoint. Unexpected outages, tripping units, missed repair schedules are a regular occurence. Consequently, I deem stage 2/3 as a best case scenario.
"Although solar and wind power plants could be built in a fraction of the time, Le Roux explained the grid itself doesn’t have the capacity to bring power from where it’s generated to where it’s needed."
https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/475831-big-problem-with-eskoms-grid-south-africa-faces-10-more-years-of-power-cuts.html
What people ignore when they focus on the Vanadium price only in an effort to predict the company's future, is the fact that profits are revenues less costs. When costs grow faster than revenues, profits shrink and so does the share price. That's what happens for two years now. It applies to both primary Vanadium producers, BMN and LGO. Same story, only BMN additionally suffers from SA corruption/loadshedding. The result is LGO is a loser and BMN is an even bigger loser.
https://ibb.co/2ZRm445
BMN stock is down -79,5% while the underlying commodity Vanadium is up +66,4%. Yet there are numerous fools out there who continue to pretend BMN was a success. Unbelievable but it's the sad truth.
https://ibb.co/GTDMfZX
Sends a clear message.
[url=https://ibb.co/GTDMfZX][img]https://i.ibb.co/4dLSwbc/BMN-rel.png[/img][/url]
"Very profitable year", really? That's exactly the hopium that's being sold here on a daily basis. Production continues to be threatened by endless loadshedding/corruption while inflationary pressures (costs) are skyrocketing. How does this indicate profits at all? The price of Vanadium is just one factor among many. And as the chart clearly shows, it's not the most important one.
A year ago the Vanadium price (V2O5) was $8,70. Today it's $8.90, up 2,3%.
A year ago BMN stock was at 9,40p. Today it's 4.80p, down -49%
Looking two years back, the Vanadium price was at $5,35. Today it's $8.90, up 66%.
Two years ago BMN stock was at 22.9p. Today it's 4.80p, down -79%.
Again, the Vanadium price is up 66% while Bushveld stock is down -79%. It must be asked: What relevance did the Vanadium price have for the company's share price performance compared to the company's many disappointments?
"Unlike Vametco, Vanchem purchases its power through its local electricity distributor, the Emalahleni municipality.
The municipality imposes periods of total power loss (and not curtailment) during load shedding, resulting in
almost total shutdown of the plant, thereby impacting Vanchem's operational performance. The plant has
generators to power the kiln but not the rest of the plant. The use of generators comes at a significant cost
implication due to the current cost of diesel."
"almost total shutdown of the plant" - despite generators!
You missed the point. Bushveld issued the following statement regarding guidance: "·Production guidance of 1,350 mtV - 1,450 mtV is maintained, supported by Kiln 3 ramping-up as planned, although, severe load shedding poses a risk to Vanchem's ability to meet guidance."
Today we know there has been severe load shedding during all of Q4, hence Vanchem's guidance is likely to be missed as I had pointed out back then. If so, results will disappoint yet again and the market will react accordingly. Self-inflicted damage that could have been avoided.