Member Info for Alfacomp

very interesting FB - however their assumption that the drop in production was caused by Covid, and will therefore be reversed next year, doesn't really chime with the fact that stock levels have been very tight since mid 2017 and in fact had been in recovery last year when Covid in Brazil was at its height.

There's some complicated stuff going on in Indonesia in the last couple of years (government blocking export then reopening it, etc) but the real story is that demand is forecast to grow from renewables and energy transition application and there's not enough Tin mines opening - see http://afritinmining.com/tin-market/

Big numbers for renewables infrastructure in the next 12 months

plus their first smart city is going to be built roughly halfway between Bushveld head office and the Vametco mine.

not going to happen guys because you real companies don't publish which projects they've tendered for.

They may not even be legally permitted to reveal that information because, guess what, it might affect the results of the tender.

MMs are being forced into paying increasingly high prices for shares. I expect this could well move up a bit more today.

What more do you want - Tin prices are at 9 year highs ?

For example about 4% of the trades today are precisely 474 shares in size (5/125 trades) - nobody can tell me this in expected.

The chance of any single trade size between 1 and 1000 is 1/1000th. The chance of getting 5 of a specific number is 125 x (1/1000)^5 or one in 8 trillion. The chance of getting 5 of ANY number between 1 and 1000 is still one in 8 Billion. I just chose 474 because that immediately jumps out of the data as soon as you look at it.

there is an obvious possibility as explained by the reasoning I laid out. As I don't control the situation I have to make educated guesses, with reasoning made as transparent as possible.

I didn't say what time the news would come out. Who here thinks that any bureaucrat is going to be getting out of bed early just so that the news can be reported before 7am in London ?

Unlike the previous time Tin prices went above $25K there are literally zero stockpiles according to the LME.

In 2011 when the price went over $30K the tin stocks at the LME were 18,000 tonnes - now they are less than 1/20th of that.

See the excellent graph here:- https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=diagram&field=LME_Sn_cash

Now we add the question of Myanmar (supplies 95% of china's tin ores) and you have all the makings of a $30K tin price.

Im not so sure jogj99 - decarbonisation and sorting out Eskom has been a priority for CR from the very start of his presidency, though he has no doubt been hampered by the old fossil dinosaurs such as Mantashe. The World Bank BESS projects are a key jewel in the strategy not just for us but also for CR - he had to wait until the fossils had essentially been defeated by the combination of their own intransigence and persistent lack of Eskom reliability, before the WB projects could be established. Too soon and they could have been perceived as the rest of the world dragging SA into it - CR needed SA to actually see the need itself and for the power of the old coal mining unions to ebb away.

I think that we are at a very sharp turning point now.

Indeed Halespur - this is the sum total of my working on this one :

1) World Bank wishes to pay for batteries for Eskom, subject to years of lobbying by the IDC and Mikhail to ensure that significant weighting is given to in country beneficiation.
2) President Ramaphosa, like all elected presidents, would like to be the first person to break the good news, subject to 2a
2a) Typically governments don't get the president to be the first to announce stuff, in case they get the details wrong or something like that, but what they tend to do is put out a formal announcement in the morning so the TV stations can get it onto their schedules and then the president (or who'er it be) comes on later to repeat the news and bask in the ensuing warm glow.

could be a big day

yes there was a typo - it should have read :-

“we forecast total revenue of US$17.0m in 2021, increasing to US$33.7m in 2022. Post Phase 2 we forecast revenue to increase to US$146.8m in 2025.

This results in the Uis Mine generating an operating profit of US$7.5m in 2021, rising to US$22.9m in 2022 and reaching US$75.9m in 2024 once Phase 2 commences."

eat stocks - there's plenty of detail about this on the Bushveld Perspective

are you sure you have those numbers round the right way ?

Floyd - nice find - the Eskom guys understand why they need batteries if they are going to transition from fossil fuels to renewables.

Good, someone needs to give the MMs what they obviously want.

James - very much so. Furthermore I think it is just the sort of thing that you would need to do if you were just about to be thrust into the South African spotlight, for example if the president was to announce that the World Bank had funded a huge series of energy infrastructure projects in South Africa and that Bushveld Minerals and the Industrial Development Corporation are using that money to build a complete mines-to-batteries production chain in the country.

If it happened here - it's precisely the sort of thing that would not be able to keep Boris away from.

New Turner Pope report published this morning.

This results in the Uis Mine generating an operating profit of US$7.5m in 2021, rising to US$22.9m in 2022 and reaching US$75.9m in 2024 once Phase 2 commences.

Where else can you buy a share with a PE of around 6 which will be able to generate 10x profit growth in less than 4 years ?

No libero if you look at the trade position at the time you will see that was a sell. Good we need someone for the MMs to mug off so that it isn't us.