Member Info for Alfacomp

Does anyone wish to have a go at summarising the company in the light of the recent mines and money award so that we can run a PR outreach campaign on the subject. We'd run this on TBP in the spot currently occupied by the Corbine Cup story so its the opportunity to get your name in lights. We don't need the full chapter and verse on the company just a brief but up to date preamble.

I'm afraid I completely tied up with my normal job for much of this weekend so can't do it. Thx

gkb47 - Vametco produces primarily Nitrovan (about 80% Vanadium by weight) and a little modified Vanadium oxide (MVO) there is no mention of FeV produced in operational updates because BMN does not produce FeV.

Nitrovan production figures are reported in operational updates in mtV (metric tonnes of Vanadium contained) so the figures are closely comparable to the figures of KgV that are used when referring to the market standard FeV for which pricing is available. One metric tonne is 1000 Kg

The Nitrovan that BMN ships o the US (just over 50% of BMN production) is monitored here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/nitrovan-shipments-to-the-us-183

For comparison with companies that report V2O5 production (eg Largo) you need to multiply their mt production figures by 0.56 to get mtV figures because V2O5 is only 56% Vanadium by weight

gkb47 - they clearly have a tame seller who they can dip into the pocket of for shares when they need them. Market Makers drop the price and then have got two potential sources of shares - PI's who they will assume are ill-researched and naive enough to sell just because the price is less than a week ago, or, if the PI's don't fall for it, their tame seller. It's a win-win situation for them, just make sure that you don't lose by not appreciating what is going on and selling.

gkb47 - it is very simple really - if they sold the shares at 45p (ish) and can buy them at less than that , which they appear to be doing at the moment, then they are making good money - something like 10-15 times what they would make simply on churning with a spread of only 0.25p.

What precisely doesn't seem clear to you ?

To be completely clear

The 2016 PFS ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/mokopane-pfs-jan-2016-27 page 25) assumes a selling price of USD 7.50 / lb V2O5, x2.2 to get to Kg and you get 16.5 USD/Kg V2O5

But V2O5 is only 56% Vanadium by weight so this works out at 16.5/0.56 = 29.5 USD/KgV (V2O5) it seems that FeV trades a bit higher than this value (almost exactly 5x the V2O5/lb price) probably due to the fact that it is easier to handle and melt in to a steel furnace - at 7.5 Dollar V2O5 this would equate to a price for FeV at around 37.5 USD/KgV

So Fortune had a problem - the PFS talks about V2O5 but most people talk about FeV KgV prices so he needed to turn the 7.5 USD/lb V2O5 price to something that people used to dealing in FeV KgV could understand. USD 33 works out at roughly the average of the two estimations given above, so seems a reasonable figure to employ.

No I suspect they would not have got themselves into this position if they did not have a tame seller lined up. That way if the FCA comes knocking they can always say that they weren't running a short they were simply 'working an order officer'.

The end day drop may be so that they can whack in a large sell and get a nice low price on it, saying 'we tried our hardest, honest guv'

all over again. Get your bargains here

fb - have you been on the zakmir again ?

DaddyBigBucks - a large holder who wishes to sell can either trickle the shares into the market themselves, or if they cannot be bothered and like getting ripped off they may have said to a Market Maker when the price is 40p - "hey bud can you sell our 10M shares by the end of November ?", to which the Market Maker will respond, "why yes indeed sir, and would sir like to come through to the back room, the one without any windows, whilst sir waits" at which point they let the price go up past 45p whilst selling the shares that they don't yet have so that Buyers can pay for the right to watch the price be walked back down to 40p.

Such a Seller might go be the name of First Island, but other large myopic holders exist.

Instead of getting 0.25p on the spread the Market Makers can instead get 20x this by trading against buyers. They do this simply because they have control over the share price and therefore have all the aces in the pack once a Seller gives them carte blanche.

The only risk is that whilst this is all going on big news lands and large amounts of day trading money turn up to swamp the MMs short position. This risk is clearly considered as acceptable as simply the cost of running the business of ripping off amateur mug punters.

updated now

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-30th-nov-2018

I make it over 1 Million large sells dropped in today, quite possibly the end of the barrel.

Does anyone want to see another chart ?

Jagadish - the only way to counter fear is through knowledge. The only way to deal with the asymmetric information that the market feeds is to employ the techniques of the codebreaker.

Yeah it works for me because I am the author. Now that I have published it everyone else should be able to see it, mea culpa

Which links ? It seems to work for me and the other 50 people on the site at present

as requested (by so many !)

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-30th-nov-2018

a trading update then don't recommend this post

just bants Rob get over yerself

Rob - when you are a black woman working in an industry dominated by white men you may take a different point of view. Try and show a little class and not simply assume that everybody thinks they are on a football terrace or chuckling together at the back of a 1970's working man's club.

41.775 / 42.0 right now

Rob - your persistent suggestions that Chika was drunk at the Mines and Money dinner are both inappropriate and are now getting borderline libellous - you should stop this