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YTSS - yes they would have to accept a loss if push comes to shove. They had to do that following the Sojitz buyout - over £200,000 loss by my calculations. If they have built the 5M short position with an average price of, say, 42p per share then they have to buy back at 50p that will be a loss twice the size.

It all depends on a number of factors

1) PI Buying pressure post news
2) selldown policy that the First Island and their colleagues March 2018 placees
3) Buying pressure of Golden Summit and possibly 1 an.other.

It seems that all 3 have the possibility to be revised on the fly, especially if they bother read the bushveld perspective.

Headancer - no I don't think so - they tried it when the price was about 2.5p and it didn't help so I suspect Fortune will definitely avoid such a thing, which as you smacks of the financial engineering employed by mature and unimaginative companies.

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-23rd-nov-2018

includes weekly summary

gkb47 - of course Largo have to sell all their output to Glencore for the next 18 months at least so it is only really BMN and Glencore at this point.

Question:
With Glencore having such a tight hold on the Vanadium supply at the moment is there any surprise that Vanadium prices are so high now ?

SloppyGuiseppe,

As I've said numerous times before this is US academia which only gets funded if you claim to be doing something new. In the US context (no Vanadium mines) this means ignoring Vanadium Flow batteries which are well developed and which use 'rare and exotic' Vanadium.

The reality of course is that Vanadium is not rare. There is more Vanadium on the planet than Nickel or Zinc or Copper. The incredible thing is that we don't mine Vanadium in anything like the quantities that we mine the others:

2017 Production Figures

Nickel 2.1 Million Metric Tonnes
Zinc 13.7 Million Metric Tonnes
Copper 20.8 Million Metric Tonnes

Vanadium <0.1 Million Metric Tonnes

So Nickel being mined at >20x the rate, Zinc 140x the rate, Copper >200x the rate

If you wanted to build a megascale battery storage industry on anything Vanadium is perhaps the perfect one to choose.

I know we have discussed this subject before - this is a Lithium-ion based container ship which will shuttle containers between 3 ports in Norway that are only 40 nautical miles apart. This is a rather special situation - where the distance to travel is short but the unloading/recharging time may be relatively long. So perhaps not scalable to ocean-going transportation or rapid roll-on roll-off car ferries.

Having said that it could be useful for transportation between the United Kingdom and the Island of Europe which Mr Dominic Raab tells me is a surprisingly important thing to do (apparently it is less than 25 nautical miles away.)

https://www.km.kongsberg.com/ks/web/nokbg0240.nsf/AllWeb/4B8113B707A50A4FC125811D00407045

Best of luck to both Knuttie's and RichKen's partners hopefully we can provide a few useful and positive distractions now and then.

Unfortunately I expect you will get nowhere as few british politicians have the faintest idea about technology - since Blue Streak their civil servants are too s^*tscared of 'picking winners' and so now spend all their time trying to figure out how to get management consultants to make the key strategic decisions for this country.

yeah I know you were not being too serious faramog - just it's worth recapping what we dealt with this week.

Alas she is perhaps only thinking about the £78M Faraday Institution that is based at Harwell and which a group of universities will have no doubt told the government is essential for trying to get Samsung to build a battery production plant in Britain.

Alas there is not going to be a battery production plant built in the UK, just like there are no production semiconductor clean rooms in the UK - it's all in the far east and it's all down to the cost and availability of skilled labour - the lack of here and ready availability there.

I suspect that the UK government will actually get much more bang for it's buck with the £56M that it will be contributing, along with the world bank, to the South African Battery Energy Storage project which will be pivotal in establishing South Africa as a centre of VRFB manufacturing.

Alas this will not result in many UK jobs, but it will result in major benefits to anyone invested in Bushveld Minerals.

faramog - you make it sound like nothing happened - what actually went on was

1) there was a coordinated short, starting monday but with its main action on tuesday
2) this was defeated on that day when PI's ended up buying more than 1.4M more shares than were sold :- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-20th-nov-2018
3) On wednesday the market makers, having read this site no doubt, concluded that there was a short in play and turned the tables on the shorters, forcing the price back up and squeezing the shorters.
4) In doing so the MMs had to sell over 1.2M more shares than they were able to buy :- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-21st-nov-2018
5) The MMs, and anyone else who was foolish enough to have a go at shorting this share had better hope that major news does not land on Monday morning, ahead of next week's Mello and Mines and Money conferences, which Fortune and Chika are in town to attend. What's the betting they are filming interviews right now ?

now updated to 2pm

Now is the time to cash in any spare shares you have got doing nothing elsewhere ahead of a possible black friday share giveaway event.

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-23rd-nov-2018

there is going to be significant news next week ?

officemanage there was only a 400K sell yesterday. The one reported today is only 1 minutes later and so I suspect simply an inter-MM transfer of the same 400K

bassguy - it is not an easily automatable optimisation algorithm bassguy - maybe that's why people don't do it - it actually requires human interaction

Alltorque because they have already sold millions of shares they don't yet have. They are trying to buy those shares now from us, at prices less than they previously flogged them for.

knutsford - no I just think that using the Bid-Ask mid-point as a way of attempting to determine the type of trade is the only really dumb method they could come up with (dumb in that it has no adjustable parameters that they could be accused of fixing, not dumb in the sense of stupid, though it is that as well).

Why nobody else does trade analysis like me I don't really know. Maybe they do and have just followed the standard assumption that if you have something that gives you an edge you must never tell anyone about it. My point of view is that by sharing this information I give all BMN shareholders an edge.

as promised

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-23rd-nov-2018

stille nacht

Lindon - sorry I forgot perhaps the nicest demonstration of this in the video that covers the Erongo overhang period just less than 12 short months ago :-

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/bushveld-minerals-in-a-minute-50

This completely destroys the myth once and for all that AIM is in any way an 'efficient' market

Ophidian - easiest to email it to editorial@thebushveldperspective.com thanks