Member Info for Alfacomp

as promised:-

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-3rd-dec-2018

Endion - indeed there were actually 9x 30K Sells between 8 and 9am this morning - anyone want some trade analysis ?

YTSS - I think this time it would be different.

Ophidian - I have contacts that may make the FCA more interested.

gkb47 - the problem is that I believe that there is no requirement for MMs to balance their books over any time period whatsoever. They are naturally allowed to make a market by selling shares that they do not yet have - as otherwise they cannot sell anything until they have bought something. We did see this 1-out 1-in behaviour briefly for about half a day approximately 4 weeks ago.

However there is no formal requirement to balance their books on a daily, weekly or monthly basis - thus if they have the cover of a tame seller then they can simply say that they are working an order, getting the best price for the customer, etc when if fact they are simply meeting the internal agenda that they have to deliver shares they have already sold.

The assumption made by some is that the presence of multiple markets makers can prevent any single market maker from moving the market in a way so as to meet their agenda. I would say that if there is any collusion at all between market makers then that undermines that competition and constitutes a clear form of manipulation. This then brings me to the very large number of duplicate pair and triplicate large sells that have occurred following the First Island selldown started about 2.5 months ago. Under MIFID 2 rules all the information about which market makers are involved in each trade is recorded and is accessible to the FCA so who here thinks I should ask them to investigate these trades on the basis of market manipulation via a pattern of collusion amongst the Market Makers.

onefcc - I understand the company can request it, subject to finding a Market Maker prepared to cover the minimum market size (or whatever it is called exactly) - this is 30K shares at present so no problem there.

It may be that the company was unaware that they could request this or were just waiting for election to AIM50 to run its course. It may also be that they were unaware that there were the benefits you have just outlined. I suggest contacting the company to make sure they are aware of these advantages.

ahh another underbid UT trade - tut tut we know what is going on.

Apologies - I underquoted the MAG1 and MAG2 ore grades earlier

I suggested that the grades were quoted as percentage 'in-magnetite' - the grades quoted were actually the overall grades

The V2O5 in-magnetite grades are:

MAG1 : 1.87%
MAG2 : 1.92%
MAG3 : 2.30%
MAG4 : 2.33%

The kilotonnes of contained V2O5 in each layer is

MAG1 : 128.7
MAG2 : 76.3
MAG3 : 412.5
MAG4 : 354.9

So you can see why MAG3 and MAG4 are the first to be selected but even MAG1 or MAG2 would be bigger than many of the Vanadium projects out there - eg Vanadiumcorp's Iron-T project = 60kT contained V2O5, Cellcube Bisoni-Mackay = 76 kT

At present the 2016 Mokopane PFS simply considers digging MAG1 and MAG2 up and piling it into a heap - we don't even process what other mines have based their entire investment proposals on.

CG - the question of how MMs run their shorting behaviour quite so consistently is of course one which I have given a significant amount of thought to. It would appear that although there might be a finite (20-day I believe) time limit in which MMs would have to deliver shares to a buyer that it might be possible for two Market Makers to work together bouncing a short back and forth between themselves to permit the effective short position to be run almost indefinitely.

Do people think that this would constitute a clear example of market manipulation ?

So this is how it works - Monday morning, increase the spread but only on the buy side so that you can spike up what Buyers have to pay - taking advantage of all the positive news of last week and research that people have done over the weekend.

Then move both prices back down to see if you can pick up cheap shares from the people that you just spiked, or from other holders. What nobody is selling ? No problem simply pick up the shares from your tame seller later in the day. Ohhh and chuck in a couple of hundred thousand sells for yourself from the trading a couple of days earlier.

I for one am looking forward to our elevation to AIM50 and the associated move from the SETSqx system of trading, which allows the Market Makers to play such games to the automated SETS system. Of course we don't need to wait for selection for AIM50 to do that and could simply request it at any point.

Yep the MMs really tried it on first thing - however with the accumulation distribution line fixed at 40.7 I get 141K more Buys than Sells.

Sanchez - it is worth remembering that the 2016 PFS was undertaken at a time when the price of V2O5 was less than 6 USD/lb - as such they only concentrated on mining and processing only the very highest grades in MAG3 and MAG4 (>1.45% V2O5 ore grade in magnetite)

I wonder if Ophidian has a view on whether it would make sense in the current high Vanadium price environment whether it makes sense to also consider mining the MAG1 and MAG2 layers (1.07% and 0.83% V2O5 in magnetite) , which would add another third to the possible V2O5 production. (page 10 https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/mokopane-pfs-jan-2016-27 )

The 2016 PFS sensitivity analysis shows NPV increasing by 86M USD for each 10% rise of V2O5 price.

If we take V2O5 at, conservatively, say 25 USD/lb that is +233 % so NPV for Mokopane would now be 2.26 Billion USD, assuming that they did not increase the size of the mining/processing operation at all.

That would add GBP 2.04 to the share price once SP Angel decide to include it in their valuation.

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/mokopane-pfs-jan-2016-27

Loudspeaker - how much higher than the 7.50 USD/Lb (V2O5) assumption for the 2016 Mokopane PFS are Vanadium prices now ?

The post-tax NPV was 259M at USD 7.50/Lb - what would it be now, if it were included. This was for 9,525 tpa V2O5 which works out at 5.334 tpa contained Vanadium.

Loudspeaker - indeed this video shows exactly how the SP has not responded to major news

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/bushveld-minerals-in-a-minute-50

1onic - I wouldn't try trading this share if I was you - this is the best researched share on AIM and if there is anything worth buying and holding for a couple of years it is this one

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com

1onic and gkb - there is of course the Vanadium price monitoring that Loudspeaker of this community undertakes :-

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/vanadium-prices

Richken - thanks for the offer which I'd like to accept - I know you have a lot on your plate at the moment also so this is a really helpful offer. Let me know if you want any additional help or guidance.

Friday updated and weekly progress charted

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-30th-nov-2018