Member Info for alex1621

BartiDdu - I posted some quotes from the Times, over a week ago. I think it was Jeffries, and they stated that TV advertising had picked up considerably as the regular advertisers returned. I’m not sure what broker note is being referred to below, but there has been positive commentary about this.

I quoted Jeffries (I think?) a few days back who were quoted in the Times over a week ago. They stated that TV advertising had picked up considerably ... I don’t know about the post below, it may be that another analyst has done so also?

The fact that one or more vaccines are approved will in itself provide greater certainty, and markets should move in anticipation of a roll out. I suspect we will also require booster jabs until such time as it weakens or fades away.

I’m surprised ITV isn’t much lower today, like RDSB? It looks like we are all going to suffer from the ups and downs of the Covid crisis, but with a vaccination program round the corner I’d expect this period to be short lived. A Brexit deal is more likely now given the Covid pain, if Europe goes into another lockdown they won’t want to pour more fuel on the fire.

I’m not too concerned about ITV, even if we have another Covid dip. At the macro level there are a few things to look out for. One is the prospect of vaccine approval, there is chat in the media about the Astra/Oxford trials, and apparently it works well. The second is the inevitable Brexit deal. Not that I think that is great but it clears the uncertainty that’s been hanging over UK domestic stocks. I’d expect that news in itself to move domestic stocks northwards. So I’m expecting a decent ending to the year followed by a strong 2021. Markets are forward looking and tend to move fast before the recovery is obvious. I’d expect advertising to have picked up then slowed a bit due to this second wave ... but I’d expect a surge when the fog of Covid begins to clear or when we know there is an ending in sight. So I’m holding even if ITV dips. Although I believe the SP in December will be higher than today. Let’s see.

Another awful day for ITV, up 2% as we speak.

What’s really next? Brexit deal, followed by vaccine, followed by reinstatement of dividend in 2021.

If we are really lucky ITV might get to 70p before the 4 years predicted by our resident Cassandra. What’s that? Sorry, it appears to be there already! Never mind.

So, what should McCall have done differently?

If everyone filter’s then he’s in a room talking to himself. I don’t mind opposing views but when someone is just mindlessly trolling they add nothing to the thread. Their posts seem designed to wind people up rather than contribute views.

I don’t think anyone can expect the SP to go north every day, that never happens for any share. I’m not short term investing so I’m happy to hold through this period. Companies that get beat up but can survive through this epidemic will do very well when it fizzles out. Roll on 2021.

I don’t see all posts, so it’s just another loon howling at the moon. Filter is the best policy.

Further lockdowns not great news for local companies, with a few exceptions. A vaccine appears to be on the way, but will take many months to be implemented. The Brexit nonsense stumbles on but my take is that there is no interest, especially in this environment, in not agreeing some form of trade deal. The next uncertainty is the return of dividend payments for many UK companies. At the macro level these seem to me to be the key variables that will determine how 2021 goes.

In the meantime expect bumps in the road, with the ebb and flow of updates. The ITV update may well be better than forecast but will be caveated with the uncertainty discussed above. I’m not expecting much until that fog clears.

Facts speak for themselves, although implementation will take months.

Two non-ITV factors on the horizon. Firstly, news of an approved vaccine should boost markets in general, because it reduces uncertainty. Secondly, an inevitable Brexit deal that will no doubt go down to the wire, as predicted. That would be particularly positive for UK focused shares.

TomLondon filtered. Fed up looking at what is effectively a nuisance troller.

Fine contrarian123 ... he just has to include the source. Otherwise he’s simply posting false information.

If TomLondon doesn’t provide a reference source for that claim, that I can’t find, he perhaps should be reported?

Opinions are fine, positive or negative, but posting facts require something to back it up.

Isn’t it simply the case that “ownership” of Liberty Global’s 9.9% lies within the reporting RNS of Goldman Sachs? I personally don’t believe that anything is missing ... Liberty can call them back whenever they want, no doubt after paying back the ITV loan or meeting some other contractual obligation. We will see for sure the next time Liberty Global update the market.

Update in The Times today indicating that ad revenues for ITV will come in ahead of forecasts, so next update should be interesting.

Thought for the day:

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

Nige ... that link goes nowhere. A copy and paste would be better.

It looks like over the past few weeks Goldman have been lightening up in their derivative holdings of put and call options and contracts for difference ... does this explain the upward trajectory in the share price?

TomLondon advises sell at 72p? The same Tom who only a few weeks ago told us it would take four years to reach 70p.

You don’t have a great track record on predictions Tom, so I’ll pass on your advice.

Davielad ... the GS updates are intriguing. They still retain the Liberty holding but it looks like they have lowered their own interest? It might explain the SP rise, in the sense that the foot has been taken off the neck of ITV. I’m only guessing, and honestly have no more information than anyone else. But it does look as if something has changed.