Member Info for alex1621

Branded are a value investor, in the Benjamin Graham sense. Having them on the shareholder roll just reinforces what most people on here believe, that ITV is currently undervalued and good value. That holding is above 3% I believe, so should have been subject to an RNS? I don’t recall seeing that, unless they have been holding a long time.

I read it on an iPad app, which I believe is a replica of the newspaper. It’s not an article. It’s a comment contained in the section that lists the biggest movers (upwards and downwards). So you see a small list of companies, the percentage move up or down, and a one sentence explanation of the move. For example, Sage fell 13% yesterday, and that was down to increased investment announcement that would reduce margins in the near term. Hope that helps.

The Times business section has a biggest mover part, and a short explanation of why a price moved. They put the ITV move down to profit taking, given the share hit an eight month high. That might be correct as I’ve seen a lot of board comments about selling, etc. I won’t be following them, I think we are looking at a very strong 2021.

Strange day given that STV (STVG) is up 4.2% today? So it’s not sector news.

I think you’ve failed to recognise his disingenuous narrative, effectively making statements that he doesn’t believe himself. He doesn’t own a share, and doesn’t have a short position , spreadbet or contract for difference. Yet posts only here? He’s a wind up merchant, plain and simple. We could all laugh at that but for the fact that there are genuine holders making sell decisions because his narrative got into their head. That’s where his posts go beyond a joke and border on maliciousness.

He’s not posting to offer objective advice to anyone. He doesn’t believe his own words nor care if he does you financial damage.

I’ve witnessed bids in a number of companies at a whole range of prices relative to value. My guess is that corporations are much like investors, waiting for certainty before bidding, and the Liberty/Goldman 20% might have been an issue, as Liberty would have head start in a bidding war. That hurdle has lessened of late with Goldman’s running down their position, coinciding with a rise in the SP. And I wonder how much of a coincidence that is? Sky was a bid target for a very long time, and then when no one expected it gets purchased.

Me too. I think we are seeing the beginning phase of a 2021 rally back to 180 plus. But although it’s been speculated about for years, I think the conclusion of Brexit might encourage bidders ... a rare asset like ITV is unlikely to attract just one.

Tom’s like this board’s lucky mascot. Ever since he came on board with his gloomy outlook and wrong predictions the share price has raced ahead.

I think the forthcoming Brexit deal with the next leg up, even more likely given the departure of Cain and Cummings, and pretty much sealed with Biden’s presidency. When the news is confirmed it will be a good day for all UK domestic stocks, not just ITV.

But I’m holding through 2021 and probably beyond as it looks like we are coming out of the COVID fog and with big sporting events and companies looking to re-establish their brands should feed through into strong advertising numbers. The reinstatement of the dividend will boost the share price further. So ITV is looking good without any M&A activity.

As for Tom, he’s simply a troll with psychological issues to deal with. He doesn’t believe most of what he claims, so there is no reason to pay him any heed. He’s loving the attention he gets on this board, as do all trolls. More to be pitied than scolded.

Don't anyone tell Tom that his shares in RDSB have fallen by more than the dividend received ... better to be thought of as a fool, etc.

As expected. An improvement in advertising with some remaining Covid 19 clouds. Net debt now only £775m ... last year at this period it was £1,167m. A drop of 33%.

Advertising for the Qtr down 7% is I believe better than expected ... and slight improvement in Q4 above last year forecast.

Okay, on track for 2021. No clue how the market reacts to this ... I think they update analysts in the morning and that might see a move one way or the other.

The sad fact is that some investors take a psychological blow to their ego when they sell a share at a loss, and a small minority attempt to seek revenge on the share through postings on bulletin boards. They want holders to feel the same pain. It’s particularly galling for them when they see the share they panic sold rebound strongly above their selling price. What’s interesting about investing is that you don’t need to be a great intellect, but you absolutely need to have emotional control. The guy who serves coffee in a cafe can be a more successful investor than a first class honours Oxford PPE graduate. If a loss impacts you so much that you spend an inordinate amount of time trolling a bulletin board then you are probably not psychologically equipped for the task.

Does anyone know of a good site where consensus forecasts for tomorrow’s trading update can be found?

I’m expecting an improved update with a revival of sorts in advertising revenues. I’d also expect some caution surrounding coronavirus, although the vaccine news might take the negative edge of that. If positive I’d also expect some broker upgrades. I’m not expecting lockdown number 3 so it’s looking good for 2021 ... which might be the year when ITV begins a steady revival. A Brexit deal is likely, in my view, and that will lift all domestic boats.

The date is the date the threshold is crossed, so they could have been unwinding those positions over several days.

And I’m one of those who believes that Liberty still have 9.9%, albeit with Goldman holding the shares as collateral for Liberty’s ITV Loan. When they next update the US market I’m pretty sure we will see it.

The fact that Goldman Sachs is unwinding these positions is significant information and suggests to me something may be afoot. But that’s pure speculation on my part, not proof.

My take on the macroeconomics. I think that there will be a Brexit deal, and Joe Biden’s election pretty much sealed that for me. Boris Johnson will get nowhere with the US if he does anything that endangers the Northern Ireland agreement. I also think that people around the world are getting fed up with lockdowns, so I’d expect these ones to be the last, and swiftly followed by vaccine programmes in early 2021. Added to this is the massive stimulus programmes that we’ve seen from Central Banks. Expect Biden to be spending big when he takes control. All of that should lead to a revival in those beaten down stocks that have managed to survive the virus. ITV should be a beneficiary. So I’m bullish about 2021.

I think this is the problem with bulletin boards, the ease with which the words of others influences people’s investment decisions. If someone told us 12 months ago that we’d be able to buy ITV at 80p we’d be backing up the truck filled with money in anticipation of being able to buy at such a bargain price. My fair value for ITV for M&A is more than double the current price, and when COVID-19 fizzles out and the business returns to normal it could easily go back to the £2 plus level. I’ve seen this happen so many times. Gl encore at 85p when investors where worried about its debt and Chinese commodity demand ... it bounced back hard, you’d have made 3/4 times your money in a very short time frame.

I think that we would all be better off not looking at boards, just hibernating for 18 months, and ignoring the Siren call of a Cassandra like Tom ... who quite frankly is a troll. These people pop up in every bulletin board, especially when a share is under the hammer, sowing doubt in people’s minds. They offer little in analysis nor insight, because they have none. I’m expecting a decent update with a near term cloud due to the virus, so I make no projections on price movement. But in the medium term I’m very bullish. Good luck to all.

Tom’s not commenting because Goldman Sach’s have got him working overtime, lavatories don’t clean themselves!

As long as the update is not disappointing I believe this has got more to run. I think I read today that RSA received a bid (apologies if wrong). Wouldn’t be surprised to see an M&A move. The Goldman run down of their position may be a “tell”. Pure speculation on my part.

A disclosable holding starts at 3% or more. To the best of my recollection the only RNS that I’ve seen in the last year is Goldman Sachs, and there’s is put and call options, and contracts for difference.

There doesn’t appear to be any evidence to support this ... perhaps only FTSE 250 trackers who have to hold shares?

The Guardian reporting that 4th quarter advertising this year will be down by 10.5%.

Not good. But interestingly enough they give a breakdown on which sectors are hit. It appears that TV advertising will be down by 2.7% ... which is a pretty good result given how 2020 has gone. Not surprisingly Cinema advertising will be down the highest.

I’m just stating something that came from an analyst. We’ll find out for sure on the 12th.