Member Info for alex1621

We shouldn't discount the economic impact of Brexit, awful politics, No deal drama, and especially Covid-19 ... they have all impacted results and facilitated GS. It would have been difficult to get to where we are today in a growing economy. ITV is cyclical after all.

A much more difficult task when the cycle turns.

LOL ... I don’t want to pay it.

I’d doubt that is the case. You could place an open order for 1,000 shares in ITV at 52p, go on holiday for a week, and during that time if the SP hit the target it would buy, and deduct the stamp duty. A simple algorithm, which still includes the tax. Algos used by the likes of Citadel are more sophisticated but will still apply stamp duty.

Given everything is electronic, why would you even need a duty? With that and spreads you are a loser the minute you buy.

I doubt anyone who has bought shares recently did so because they thought that free to air was a growth business? They did so I would guess because they believe that free to air and studios, as well as new initiatives like Britbox, are more valuable assets than is reflected in the current market capitalisation. If Netflix, etc is going to be the dominant viewing option for people, then studios is going to be busy producing content for them. They are in a growth market. And if studios grow rapidly then free to air becomes less relevant to the business model in the future. A few years ago Netflix was 100% sending DVD’s through the post. The ITV business in 5 years time might be very different to what it is today.

Might that have something to do with the ITV Collar arrangement that Liberty has with Goldman Sachs? I think if Liberty were no longer 9% holders you’d read it in the press or in their latest market update.

There’s another point to consider, one that other poster failed to understand. And that’s the content production side of ITV, which is in its infancy and is now around 50% of revenue. If that were to grow rapidly in the next few years the feee to air division will becomes an increasingly smaller part of the business. And rapid growth is not out with the realms of possibility, given the number of new streaming businesses that are developing.

Again, you miss the point. But this time deliberately.

I think you missed the point. Being that if anyone had predicted an eight times plus increase in a few years they would have been laughed at. At that time there would also have been people posting reasons why it would never get back to 50p never mind 5 times that.

Forget about advertising. That was the sole business model in 2009. What about studios and streaming? Will the demand for quality content in 6 years be greater than today? That’s the growth area, and to be frank no one can say where that could go. Remember, Netflix were sending DVD’s through the post not so long ago.

I’m a bit wary of predicting share prices. They can go much lower than you expect, like this one, or much higher than anyone would image, like Ocado or BooHoo.

But in May 2009 you could buy ITV for 28.80p (approx). And if someone had posted imploring holders to give it 6 years and it’ll be £2.50 ... they would have been laughed out the room. But the reality is that you would have made 8.7 times your money in 6 years.

Would that be impossible? Well what if studios started to grow fast due to content demand or Britbox developed a couple of blockbuster programmes? Would that be impossible? Personally I don’t think so.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4369577-itv-underappreciated-value

Got this link from another Board. An interesting summary and relatively positive on ITV. I hope it comes through okay.

Is that what’s going on? It shows the beginning and end position but not went on in between? Could it be that they sold a large % of the stock then bought back a marginally greater number at a lower price? So gaming the SP, grinding it down?

I don’t claim to know this as a fact, it’s just a suspicion. But I don’t see an RNS from these grifters as anything other than negative.

You’ve already had comments from McColl on the company’s significant undervaluation, and it bounced up to 90p after the March plunge. You’d think someone would bid at such a low price as today’s, but my observation of these activities is that it tends to happen after the SP begins to recover. ITV studios is a prize asset, in this content hungry times, and the archive is also valuable It’s unlikely that the Board will just give them away for 80p. I reckon the patient will be rewarded, but it’s difficult to maintain that stance if fixated on the market price day to day. Hibernation is the best strategy, in my view.

It’s hard not to look at ITV and avoid the conclusion that it’s being gamed. Liberty took out a loan (ITV Loan) to buy the shares, with the shares being collateral for the loan, and then entered into a put and call option arrangement (ITV Collar) that was designed to protect the collateral in the event of a share price fall (such as we have seen), but that gave Liberty very limited gains should the share price soar in value. So downside protection, but no upside. The shares are in the hands of Goldman Sachs, who I presume administer and control the ITV Collar. As part of that arrangement they can loan out the shares for shorting, or presumably short themselves.

I’m no expert in such matters, but that’s what I think is going on. But when I see a Goldman update indicating a fractional % change I suspect that this is not the full story.

If we had someone on the board with a better understanding of these instruments, and what you can do with them, that would be very helpful.

I mean, on any objective basis, how could they be worse than airlines or travel? I’m expecting a big sustained bounce one day ... but no idea when that will be. It behaves like the share of a company about to collapse ... and I’ve no idea what the Goldman Sachs RNS actually mean ... but I suspect nefarious activity. If we all owned shares in ITV as a private company we wouldn’t be that fussed ... best find a place to hibernate. Wake me up at 180p.

SP could go anywhere. I’m not convinced that we’re going into winter lockdowns. Imagine a vaccine gets approved or the virus numbers suddenly fizzle out? The stocks that will benefit from that are those that are most beaten up.

Yes, and I watched it and did nothing. Total loser ... lol.

Yes, but you didn’t get the full story. I’m sitting in a square in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, checking up on the market close, only to see that my biggest holding is down around 50%. You’ve done your homework, the company has no debt (stuffed with cash), low operational gearing, and it’s market is beginning to open up. But sentiment is very poor, and driving the share price down. You go from total loser to market wizard in the space of a few months, a gut churning ride of emotions ... I just switched off, and it worked out okay in the end. ITV has a similar feel to it.

Lol ... I’m sure you’ll do well as long as you keep your nerve. Try 175k of 888 at 50% down a few years back? Bought at 58p, sold around 160-170p. The biggest shock about investing in the early days was how fast a share can plunge, and equally how quickly it can recover. Like Schrödinger’s cat, it came alive when I stopped looking at it.

LOL ... pointless predicting ITV SP ... can’t see it moving until the updates show a definite improving trend ... or M&A activity ramps up. Those of a nervous disposition should switch off the monitor and take a look monthly.

Sorry, FCA will tell you it’s all legal.