Member Info for alex1621

Agree with comments, any resolution of the Brexit calamity, but in particular the avoidance of a "no deal" outcome, will be a positive boost for UK domestic stocks, and should bring back advertisers as they will have more clarity over the business environment.

Agree with comments, any resolution of the Brexit calamity, but in particular the avoidance of a "no deal" outcome, will be a positive boost for UK domestic stocks, and should bring back advertisers as they will have more clarity over the business environment.

I don’t think most are great people. But when the outlook becomes clearer I believe ITV will see an increase in ad revenue. The country itself might also benefit from investment that is being held back. The results were pretty much what I expected, a company like ITV will not thrive in an environment like this one. The SP has steadily declined since the vote, give or take the odd takeover rumour, and I don’t anticipate any major recovery until this Brexit shambles is over with. In the meantime, I haven’t seen much evidence of significant institutional selling, but I’d bet that the Liberty/Goldman arrangement has been very active. I suspect this will soon come to a head, with Liberty disposing $6.3 billion of Swiss assets. Patience is a virtue, one that can get strained by the psychology of markets and their participants.

Yes, Smartie2 ... best not to buy. Maybe you should put on a large short? A Chicken Little strategy is always the best policy. You just need to be careful with any positive news on Brexit, and especially after May when it's likely that Liberty Global get the final okay on an 18 billion cash sale.

Auditors are not responsible for exposing frauds, but it is remarkable that false transactions where not picked up during the testing phase of the audit. They also undertake ratio analysis to ensure that the figures make sense ... low interest revenue on a large cash balance may have been the "tell" with this company (despite a historically low interest rate) but no one seen this coming. I'm a customer occasionally and the cafe that I use and the others that I observed always seemed reasonably busy. It just didn't look like a "too good to be true" company. And that's what's scary.

The article makes the common error of anchoring to the current SP, and presumes that 30% above that is the takeover price. ITV is suffering from the Brexit malaise, and that sentiment is being shorted. A lot depends on the Brexit outcome ... for all UK based stocks. Any resolution should see SP recovery.

I’d be happy to see Liberty sell up and go away ... but I suspect they won’t do so, they will continue to work with Goldman’s to keep the price down until such time as they can engineer a low ball bid. Let’s hope if that comes to pass they will face some competition.

Hi Nige Quite agree. I read yesterday that May invited a few folk for a meeting, including Rees Mogg of all people. The indication is that if the EU can provide some more legal clarity on the backstop the ERG will approve the deal ... I’m not sure where the DUP stand, but I do believe that many in Northern Ireland, business and some supporters, are not happy with their stance on this issue. So they might shift also. May might just get her deal through. The whole thing is a mess. Merry Christmas and all the best for 2018 to all posters.

I'm of the view that Brexit will not end in a "no deal" scenario, but if everyone in parliament sticks to entrenched positions we may well be looking at another referendum or an election ... Corbyn would be toxic for domestic stocks and is a bigger threat than Brexit, in whatever form it takes. In the meantime 20% of stock in the hands of Goldman Sachs is negative for the SP. However, should this saga end positively a significant short squeeze will see some SP recovery.

2019 will depend on politics and perhaps the Liberty/Vodafone deal going smoothly.

They pay Holly more, but how much are they paying Ant? I suspect nothing at all.

I reckon this is all about the Brexit result, a softer Brexit like May's deal or Norway would be a positive, a hard no deal Brexit a definite negative. Pushing the economy into an avoidable recession will put the Conservatives out of business for a very long time ... I think MP's need to be taken to the edge of the cliff before sense prevails. I suspect a second vote on a tweaked deal with save faces and win the day.

Corbyn would be toxic for UK shares, so I'm really hoping that May can see off any challenge and attempt to get her deal through Parliament ... but failing that I'd be happy to see another vote. A "no deal" scenario would be toxic for the country and I don't believe that Parliament would allow that ... I suspect that you'd get cross-party support for a new vote.

Yes OWLS ... but you talk about these matters as if you obtain them by flicking a switch ... why would a country want to start from scratch? A guy on Question Time last night arguing that we survived WW2 ... sure, but many millions of people died and our economy was wrecked. Why be reckless?

We are living in "interesting times", but not in a good way. ITV will not do well under a no deal outcome, and this current turmoil gives the Goldman Sachs team another opportunity to take advantage ... but how likely is a no deal outcome? To my mind, strange as it might seem today, it looks to me that another referendum is on the cards ... and that would be very good for ITV. Time to bury this shambles with a people's vote. I believe the Tory rebels have made a gross miscalculation that will soon come back to haunt them. Interesting times indeed.

I think that is why they emphasised the new CFO's experience with selling ARM at a hefty price, if Liberty don't make a move after receiving the Vodafone cash they never will. But that doesn't mean that ITV is safe from predators.

Dallo ... I understand your frustration, I’d much rather see the SP up at 200, but I can’t see that happening until the Brexit fiasco is over and the clouds lift a little from the UK economy. As long as ITV continue to build their content business I’m quite happy, as the ad business will pick up eventually, and over time will become less important. When you look at the valuations touted for the likes of Endemol Shine and Sky, you have to acknowledge that ITV is undervalued. I personally believe there is a suppression operation in place, I don’t believe that Goldman and Liberty are passive participants, we’ll find out when Liberty collect the cash from Vodafone. Until then, I’m holding as long as they do, and collecting a dividend in the meantime.

Just checked. ETO was 232 in October 2016, is now 404, so around 75% higher ... and was higher still a few weeks back. Go further back and it was trading much lower than 232. It’s a mistake to value a company using current SP as the anchor.

The SP can go anywhere in this environment. But what happened at ITV today to make it 4% less valuable than yesterday? And how disastrous has the business been performing? The pattern of SP repeats itself, down to 140 then up to 180, rinse and repeat. It might just be regular buying and selling that creates this, but when 20% of the stock is in the hands of Goldman Sachs, 10% of which is owned by a potential predator, it all looks pretty suspicious. Liberty have no interest in seeing ITV SP rise, and the ITV Collar option they have profits them little on the upside. My only wish is that if they do go for a bid after collecting cash from Vodafone someone else enters the fray to spoil the party. As for price, it won’t be 200p, as the premium will be higher ... what would Entertainment One go for today, and where was it’s SP when ITV showed an interest?

My sympathies to anyone with a stake in this one, I almost bought at 270p a few years back. The numbers in terms of sales, margins, debt levels and cash generation always looked solid. I don't understand what has happened here:

1) Has the CFO just siphoned off money and filled the gap using off balance sheet overdrafts?; or
2) Has the CFO been fiddling the numbers to make the performance look better than it actually was and using the off balance sheet overdrafts to top up cash in the accounts to fill the holes?

I sincerely hope it is 1) and not 2) ... the company would then have a good chance of re-establishing itself.

The country is not blessed with quality politicians, Johnson being a case in point. Should the Tories take the country off a cliff courtesy of a "no deal" Brexit they will usher in a Corbyn government ... the worst possible outcome for retail investors. I'm hoping they can come to a practical solution and if they do would anticipate better prospects for the UK and GBP in 2019, which would be good for ITV. Any sign of an uptick in the business may flush out the predators ... who want to buy cheaply just as prospects take a turn for the better.

What bull market? Since the Brexit vote UK domestic shares have been viewed as toxic by financial markets and major funds are avoiding the UK. Growth rates have gone from the strongest in the EU to amongst the weakest, and more importantly large advertisers have reduced their spend. Not a great environment for a company like ITV, which is holding its own but hardly setting the heather alight. What could change? Well a Brexit agreement would create a more certain environment for business and encourage more investment, and more importantly revive advertising. A no deal fall off a cliff would make matters worse. To imply that conditions are great yet ITV fails to perform is patently false.