Member Info for alex1621

My take is that BritBox will prove a success, but it’s not intended to be a competitor to Netflix, Amazon or Apple ... but it might actually do much better than everyone expects. There will be new programming, quite apart from Spitting Image. You only need to find another Downtown Abbey to generate a lot of interest.

But ultimately I think ITV will become part of a bigger entity, as that is the way the industry is going. No idea when, or who. I’d like to see it come back from the pandemic first, and grow the studios business further. Time will tell.

Are you the same Tom, who, a couple of weeks back, stated that ITV would take 4 years to get back to the 70’s?

Asking for a friend.

Tom, you really need to do your homework on Disney. As well as film and tv, they also run theme parks and cruise liners. It’s no real surprise they are making redundancies, as no one is visiting theme parks nor are they taking cruises.

I’m not sure that we can draw any conclusions from Goldman Sach’s moves, given that they still control Liberty Global’s stake and can easily re-enter into put/call options and contracts for difference at any time. Does it indicate another stake builder? I suppose we’d see that in an RNS, and the only ones that appear in the last few years are Goldman Sachs. But perhaps something is afoot. When Goldman announced there original interest in ITV and Liberty announced their ties with Goldman many presumed that this meant an imminent takeover bid ... the share price ramped up accordingly. But since then it has been steadily grinding down. Although ITV’s performance has been lacklustre, it really hasn’t been so bad to justify this level of fall, including the shock from Covid-19. William Hill are now in play. Perhaps UK assets are becoming more attractive ... after the Brexit deal is settled we might see more M&A. I just hope ITV is not given away and any bid is met with competition. It is a unique asset, after all.

Your talking about the Former Scientific Advisor at Pfizer, I think the biggest pharmaceutical company in the world ... not Alex Jones.

You claimed correctly that I’m not a scientist and neither is BooHoo. Now when you are presented with one you try to discredit him with the “conspiracy theorist” label, a tired old trope used by people who would rather not deal with opposed opinions. There are many established scientists, experts in their field, who don’t agree with the Government approach. This is not an issue of settled science.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bwebLohmN4

If anyone would like an alternate opinion from a scientist, here is one.

So scientists agree on every step of this strategy? There is a settled science on the Covid 19 epidemic? You’ll get plenty of scientific agreement on E = MC squared, but not on this.

The Swedish epidemiologists looked at the Imperial College model and found fault with the estimates placed on a number of variables that drive the model. The prediction for Sweden was proved wrong. Oxford University professors on evidence based medicine are opposed to lockdown and believe that the numbers driving that policy are being seriously misinterpreted. There is no settled science on this and a number of academics believe that the measures being applied are ineffective. Some have even questioned whether the actual tests are throwing up false positives.

I could go on. But if you read widely enough you’ll discover that scientists are not aligned in their views on this matter.

That’s not what I said. You identify vulnerable groups and target resources at protecting them. The more younger people that get it the safer the vulnerable group is, if properly shielded. If no vaccine appears that is the only strategy available.

Don’t deliberately misinterpret my views.

It's people like you that are the problem, scared of your own shadow over a virus that kills very few people who get it. From the beginning we should have identified those that are especially vulnerable and focused our resources on them, and let everyone else go about their business with sensible precautions, like hand washing and face masks. The so-called science is not well established, and the models on which predictions are made have not been subjected to scrutiny. The predictions for Sweden turned out to be wrong, and they are handling it better than us. Our ancestors dealt with worse and handled it without any fuss. And I'm not just referring to damage to the economy, which will be considerable, I'm also referring to the thousands who will die prematurely because of late diagnosis, suicide, missed operations ... people that are currently being overlooked.

More people will die today of influenza, a normal situation year after year that we have paid no heed to. Lockdowns don't cure a virus, they merely delay it. We need to work around it, not lock down.

More bumps in the road for UK shares, courtesy of Covid-19 and a Government that are clueless how to deal with it. Apparently many more people are dying today from flu than the virus, something that goes unnoticed each year as we all go about our daily business. I can’t see any clear blue skies for UK shares, including ITV until this episode and the Brexit nonsense are behind us.

Read a story about three young guys stuck in quarantine in Italy since mid August because they tested positive for the virus, and have failed so far to be released because subsequent tests keep coming back as positive. It’s suspected that the tests are picking up dead cells from people who no longer have the virus ... so false positives.

Many will disagree, but my view is that Sweden took the right approach and we should follow them.

I’m not convinced there will be no Brexit deal, we’ll end up with some watered down arrangement, what we are seeing is the usual song and dance that will go on right up to the last minute. Neither party want chaos, so I’d expect some compromise deal just before the deadline.

I’m wondering if we are seeing the beginnings of a narrowing in the gap between tech growth shares and value shares? So a rotation into cyclical value shares may be in play. That won’t hurt ITV or other bombed out shares.

People are nervous about flu season and a so-called second wave. The flu season in Australia was historically mild, due to hand washing, distancing and other measures. I’d expect the same in the UK. A German official has already stated they will not go into another lockdown and Sweden’s numbers just look better and better. I’m wondering if this pandemic is essentially over? I wouldn’t be in the least surprised if Covid-19 is gone before a vaccine arrives.

As for Tom, who knows what can happen to a SP if the fear is strong enough? I never expected to see ITV hit 58p in 2020. But the flip side of that equation is also true ... so I would expect a more positive update from ITV next time round. But Tom doesn’t have to be concerned about that, being neither long nor short? His motives are therefore purely altruistic.

The danger is that you might be leaving the party just as it’s started. It was 90 after the March low, it could easily go there again.

Tom “it won’t be at 70 for years” makes another bold prediction on the SP. You could be right, but I’d say through luck rather than knowing. It’s impossible to predict share prices ... they can go much lower than anyone expects ... but just as interestingly much higher. Tesla being a good example.

I bought ITV because I think it is grossly undervalued. Covid damage has helped push the SP down but I view that as temporary. Any positive update from ITV or the virus, and it will re-rate. If the next update confirms the return of advertising (like STV) it should end the year higher than today.

Yes, Lloyds, BT, and ITV have been hammered. Share investing is a strange beast, the cheaper a share gets the more nervous and scared investors get. I’m trying to look beyond this Covid period, to the the period after. I’ve no idea where any of those shares will be in 10 years, but I’d bet they’ll go much higher within the next three.

Also, I meant to say ... I think you’ll do okay with that position, but expect a few bumps in the road before it plays out. ITV is not an easy hold.

I never disclose positions until it’s all played out, and even then I hardly ever. But I do own currently and have done in the past. And should it fall further I’m looking to add to my position. Once I’ve done that I’m just going into hibernation, and radio silence on bulletin boards, until this period plays out ... in the next couple of years, or possibly before. Sorry I can’t be more helpful.

For those that are interested, the Investors Chronicle’s Simon Thompson wrote a book, Trading Strategies, looking at a number of technical trading strategies and evaluating there usefulness.

In Chapter 13, entitled “Playing Footsie” he looks at companies being relegated from the FTSE 100. This strategy applies during a bull market.

You simply buy shares on the day the company exists the FTSE 100, hold the shares for 3 months and then sell up.

He looked at data between 24/3/2003 and 18/6/2007. Of the 27 companies relegated over 75% posted a positive return in the three months following their exit. And 4 of the 6 losing trades only fell by less than 3%. The last 2 fell harder.

He cites some academic papers that came to a similar conclusion. He quotes Mase (2007) of Brunel University:

“ ... selling pressures moves prices temporarily away from equilibrium ... drives down share prices below fair value and creates the conditions for a bounce back in the shares”.

I’ve para-phrased but essentially the selling prior and after exit pushes the selling price well below fair value, resulting in a bounce back. He mentions other factors involved, but that essentially is the gist of it.

Hope that helps?

You seem very keen that investors sell Tom? Your altruism is noted.

What’s being done is legal, and the FCA will do nothing. There’s not much ITV can do about it either, other than work to improve the results. This activity that we all believe is going on has coincided with events that impact ITV’s business ... Brexit vote, post-Brexit chaos, and the devastating impact of a virus. And the stock exchange is the only place where lower prices scare off buyers. So GS/LG have had a helping hand.

What turns this round is an increasingly positive outlook and some decent revenue and profitability. In May 2009 ITV was 28p, but £2.50 six years later, off the back of improving results. It’s in that down cycle again, but in my view in a better position to recover than in 2009, when the outlook was bleaker. When the trend changes shorting becomes a great deal more risky. That caravan moves on.