Member Info for alex1621

Isn't it simply that:

(1) GBP strength with a Brexit deal near completion weighs down a dollar earner, and
(2) The bad news on Covid-19 continues to impact on GSK's business.

I'd expect to see some reversal once (1) settles down and vaccine roll-outs in 2021 reduce the impact of (2) on the business.

Looks like the deal is in the bag, just have to see the Covid virus off and domestic stocks should soar ... and ITV is well placed given that it hasn't raised money from shareholders and has reduced debt, rather than increased it. Next boost will be reinstatement of the dividend.

I’m a Remainer and I never thought the EU would do anything other than look after their own interests. And that’s exactly what they are doing. When you boast about “holding all the cards”, “they need us more than we need them” , “we can have cake and eat it” ... this is what that not being true looks like. In any deal with 27 other countries working as a bloc you never have the stronger negotiating position. That’s what Remainers said, and that was called “project fear”. It looks a lot more like reality.

Interestingly I don’t think Johnson wants to get re-elected, because he’s losing a ton of money. He’s on about £150k or thereabouts and has to pay for everything , which is a great deal less than the £750k he was making with newspaper columns and other sidelines. As a retired PM he’d be raking it in, just like Tony Blair. He’s had to transfer half his wealth to his last wife so he’s feeling the strain. And Princess Nut Nut will require a grand house at some time.

I’m doubtful. And I’m wondering if this was the desired outcome for Johnson all along? The pandemic will be the default excuse for any failure in the UK’s economic performance, a convenient cover story.

Nigel, I agree. But if a miracle does happen and some weasel words are agreed at the weekend the new investor will get a boost. I’m not confident of that though, and I’ve got some money put to one side if the markets go to far on the downside.

I’m a bit more pessimistic about the initial market reaction, but that may have something to do with being on the wrong side of the bet after the referendum in 2016. I cane down from a mountain in Northern Thailand (true story), drove to a nearby cafe, fired up my laptop and witnessed some shares down 33% ... although they didn’t close at that level. The winners that day were dollar earning multinationals, and Banks, retailers, media local companies got slaughtered.

So I’ve got a bit of cash on the side ready for any eventuality. A deal is great for ITV but not great for dollar earners. Good luck to all with this one. In the medium term I would expect ITV to bounce back when the dust settled in the event of a WTO outcome.

Hard to discern if it’s a threat or an opportunity. Broadcasting is entering a new era, and it’s incredibly difficult to predict what the outcome will be for the likes of ITV. The “demise” narrative is based on nothing changing, but it might not play out like that. There might actually be a decent growth path that ITV can take.

We can do all of that, today? Lamb will be cheap at first, on account of the slaughtering that will go on followed by desperate selling. But we were told, and farmers were told, it would be great for them? Tell it to the ones who know they are going to be bankrupt. We can all get an allotment, just like the War. Grow our own and give what for to Gerry and Froggy.

My last post on this subject ... apologies. It simply hacks me off.

The “they have more to lose” argument doesn’t hold water when you consider that the impact is spread over 26 countries. The biggest loser in the EU will be Ireland. What happened to the German car and Italian Prosecco lobby? It was a lie from the get go. The difference between now and the day after the vote is that now we have to deal with the real world consequences, and then nothing had changed as we were still in the club. The benefits of Brexit are in the heads of Brexiteers, like when your team wins the cup. The day after that feeling is gone. But the costs are real and have real consequences for sheep farmers, logistic companies, car manufacturers, and many others. I don’t even believe that fishermen will benefit, as the bulk of their catch goes to Europe, and they lack capacity to take up more quota.

A no deal Brexit is bad for UK domestic stocks and good for UK listed but dollar denominated multinationals who benefit from a weak GBP. We witnessed the same price movements the day after the Brexit vote. So no surprise to see this reaction. Anyone who thought this was priced in was mistaken.

I watched a review which implied that this was intended, as they didn’t want too much upset given what’s been going on this year. So any animosity that raised its head never appeared on screen. One positive is that it would have been cheaper to produce.

Looks like we need to don the hard hats on Monday. Barnier and Frost have reached the end of the road. So expect escalation to Boris and the EU ... I’ve no idea If this is the end of the road or a Christmas pantomime designed to show that both parties negotiated hard, before reaching a compromise agreement.

We’re living in interesting times, but not in a good way.

If there is a break down in the Brexit negotiations expect some considerable pain, possibly worse than the original referendum vote. A deal on the other hand should maintain the rally.

I don’t think it will impact the longer term trajectory but it would put a serious spanner in the works that would take several months to recover from. Although I can’t see both parties get this far only to trip at the final hurdle, so my expectation is some sort of announcement at the weekend or Monday morning.

Someone who sells one stock and immediately reinvests can claim to be “moving from” one to another ... it doesn’t apply if you were effectively licking your wounds, grieving over your loss, and then some considerable time later buying into another. It’s two separate moves.

There is the proof. Lost money by panicking and selling at a loss. Failed to mention that.

They might have used some and bought a winning lottery ticket, but most probably haven’t.

Back up again? I still believe ITV has a long way to go ... but we’ll see selling all the way along that journey ... fear of losing a profit is strong with investors. Those selling at 80 have lost out in an extra 25% plus profit.

EU might do okay, but US tech especially looks overbought. The UK looks like it’s at the beginning of a reversion to the mean move, getting back in line with other markets. You might be leaving at the turning point?

You’re going to focus on EU and US stocks when yesterday the major US investment banks advised clients to buy cheap British stocks?

Bear in mind there are plenty of people who bought near the lows who will cash in after a day like yesterday, so no surprise to see red on the screen. Personally I think the real move will be in 2021, when the news flow from ITV gets consistently positive. So I’m not joining them.