Member Info for alex1621

I think their overly negative views and predictions should be rebutted and challenged. Their objective is to encourage people to sell or avoid buying. That's why they talk about price targets ... psychologically anchoring your expectations. It's designed to affect behaviour. Many investors are new to this and will be scared out of decent positions. I saw that recently when a poster on ITV constantly dripped scare stories. Another poster sold his position at a loss and missed out when the SP doubled.

Board's need both positive and negative views, as long as they are genuine.

I think all price predictions are nuts, and usually the product of someone’s wishful thinking. But more importantly they tend to focus people towards a psychological anchor, the price, and away from a consideration of company prospects in the future.

Companies that go to zero are usually fraudulent (plenty of those on AIM) or so heavily in debt that even small falls in sales generate losses that can never be recovered from. Rolls Royce were trading at 50p, undertook a dilutive fund raise, and are now at 120p. Principally because the skies are opening up. A better outlook led to a massive SP move. Happens all the time. I suspect BooHoo will make similar moves, I’ve just no idea when. A better than expected update won’t deter a concerted and organised shorting operation, but if it continues in that vein the confidence in that position will start to drain. It’s harder to keep a negative narrative going. The level of shorts under the reporting radar are unknown, but I’d guess they are pretty significant. The rush to the exit will be fun to watch.

Robbyw … I joke about it because I haven’t got a clue where the SP will go. Sometimes a company posts a great update only to watch its SP fall. Other times you see markets getting slaughtered yet one of yours is up a few per cent. I’m guessing markets in Europe will follow the US, as they usually do. But the price action on BooHoo is so erratic it’s impossible to say how it goes. I’m more interested in where it is in 2024/25 than today or next month.

LOL … I’m sticking to my up or down prediction.

Compound … I doubt any company is looking to match inflation, and bear in mind it was going up during periods inflation was low. Inflation headlines reflect the major disruption we are seeing, but I’m more in the camp that thinks this will ease by the end of the year. The dust has yet to settle.

I can confidently assert that the SP will go up and down today throughout the session, and close either up or down. I’m so confident about this prediction that I’ll even go further and say that this will happen every trading day in the future.

I’ll come back at the end of today to tell you “told you so”.

I tend to agree that most BB are pointless. Although they can be entertaining. A guy on my Twitter feed recently posted a summary by Fidelity (I think) of the categories of there most successful investors. The number one investor group were people who had died followed by people who had lost their account password. The point being that the less active you are, the better you’ll do in the long run. Bulletin boards encourage activity and I think on the whole are damaging to investor psychology.

They don’t have to update the market on the DC, and they are not going to provide a random private investor with any insights. The target for the DC is 2023, not a specific date. So if a preferred site had a planning delay, they could move attention to another site, and no one would know. 2023 is a pretty wide target to hit. And the US offers a lot of options when setting up a DC.

How should you read that? What did you expect? The rules on information dissemination are pretty tight. They are not going to give you any more than anyone else unless you own a significant stake. So an activist investor will get a hearing, but an ordinary investor won’t. If they are on track with the DC or are behind they won’t tell you … they are not allowed to.

Max … BooHoo is subject of an organised and coordinated shorting operation. The people involved are on safe ground, there won’t be an update for some time so the game continues. Anyone who thinks they can pick a bottom is deluded. So no surprise here. I bought 888 at a bargain price of 56p some years back, only to watch it hit 28p, with an analyst forecasting a 14p target. A couple of years later I sold for 175p or thereabouts. My worst loser became one of my best winners. Go figure. I was an idiot at 28p, and a wise investor at 175p. I’d only have been a confirmed idiot if I’d listened to bulletin board chat at 28p. Daily moves in the scheme of things don’t matter.

Once someone reaches Billionaire status they don’t want to lose that. They start socialising with other super wealthy, that becomes their peer group. As daft as it is, we all compare ourselves to our peers. Rich people are jealous of other rich people, and schadenfreude is strong with that crowd. So I doubt Kamani is happy with this level of wealth destruction, and he’ll be determined to get back on top. Whatever anyone thinks of them, they are skilled rag traders, and you don’t get that level of success by accident. It’s not like they bought 1 million bitcoins in 2010, and just lucked out.

We are not back to the previous normal, yet. But TUI reporting bookings for the Summer well ahead of pre pandemic. They did say that winter bookings are still down on that period, but that’s no surprise given the omicron scare and the restrictions imposed by countries. It does look like we are moving on from covid. Supply chains will ease, but we might not see real progress until 2023.

A couple of years ago Glencore fell heavily to 85p, or thereabouts. Two years later it was above 400p. It was an example of intrinsic value and market value disconnecting. It happens a lot. Benjamin Graham characterised it with his Mr Market parable. Take advantage of him when he’s overly optimistic, but don’t be led or influenced by him when he’s in a depressed state.

My observation of financial market participants, for what it's worth, is that they fix on a narrative, either positive or negative, and can't see beyond it. So if the updates miss guidance, then that will always happen, and the share price will never recover. Same with updates above expectations, the perception then is that targets will always be beaten and the share price will only ever go upwards. But in the real world neither of those scenarios make sense. I don't know any retailer that has never had a bump in the road, and in some instances quite serious bumps. A couple of years ago analysts and the media were full of articles about Next's "Kodak moment", holding onto stores in the age of the internet. They were a goner, a no hope outfit overtaken by the times. They'd never recover. The SP tanked, then more than doubled as the narrative turned out not to be true. And that's not the first time for Next, these narratives have played out since the 1980's.

I think it began with the supplier scandal, but the US fine also indicated that they haven't learned about the importance of governance. Hopefully going forward they can put that issue to bed. The economic issues, supply chain, inflation, etc are impacting every retailer, and with a US warehouse scheduled for 2023 I can see BooHoo coming out of this period with strong growth. This is really a share for the patient, as it will continue to be under shorting pressure until updates indicate that these issues are receding. My guess is that the short interest is greater than most think as many are not required to disclose their positions. The best response is a positive series of updates.

At a 1.94 average I suspect you'll get out at a profit, if you are patient. I don't think THG is a Ponzi scheme, but I do think that the IPO was over-hyped, particularly the Ingenuity platform. It probably wasn't worth 500p, but I think it could easily double from these levels, and won't be taken out below 220p in my view.

My guess is that the story about private equity interest is accurate, but simply isn’t at the stage where they are required to update the market. Unilever actually tabled more than one bid with Glaxo before anyone knew about it … even if it doesn’t amount to anything at the very least it shows that THG is undervalued. Whilst stocks under a coordinated shorting attack can go much further south than expected, they tend not to stay there very long. Buyers at this level require patience, shorters need to be wary of unexpected announcements.

The Times. Jupiter held too much BooHoo, and exceeded their holding limit. Therefore became a forced seller in a falling market.

I believe one of them, Advent, were seen on the premises of the Manchester HQ. So it looks like a genuine story. I’d expect to see this one move up on Monday.

I would go a step further. Just simply keep away from boards altogether. Boo will recover on good news regarding supply chain issues, and further down the track when the US warehouse appears in 2023. The best response to shorters is good news. That will take time.