Member Info for alex1621

If I had such a deep conviction that BooHoo will never recover I wouldn’t be long and short, as you claim to be. I’d sell my long and double down on my short. If you are so strong in your conviction PP1, that is the no-brainer move. Why would anyone possessing your level of certainty on the imminent demise of BooHoo be long?

So Norges Bank buying 3% doesn’t count? That’s why “UK” is mentioned … to avoid acknowledging a substantial vote of confidence in BooHoo long term.

My views on BooHoo are clear. I have no idea where the SP will be this week, month, or year, but I believe that the bulk of issues that BooHoo are dealing with are solvable. Add to that the fact that there is an organised and coordinated shorting operation in progress, and you have an elastic band that’s being stretched to it’s limits. And we all know what happens when you let go of the elastic band … things spring back very rapidly.

I suspect that if we ever met some of the people we debate on here we’d realise how foolish we are for doing so.

Norges Bank don’t hold for four months … let’s come back to that in 2024, and see how things are.

A guy who claims to be shorting a stock that he claims to have a large holding in … you couldn’t make it up.

You would think that would be the case, but management are also incentivised by EPS targets, and if you reduce the number of shares in issue you can give EPS an artificial boost. That's why you see management teams engaging in buybacks when the SP is overvalued. I'm fine with BATS doing it, given the beaten down valuation.

I think it's wrong to either be "in favour of" or "not in favour of" buybacks. Buybacks make sense when the share price is lower than the intrinsic value of the company (an objective assessment based on the numbers), and don't make sense when it's above intrinsic value. Buying back cheap shares make sense, buying back expensive shares does not. In BATS case it's probably a sensible move.

I don’t think the year end results will be pretty. The question is will they be in line with the previous guidance, or worse? When the profit warning was issued Omicron and lockdowns were in everyone’s radar, so if they were smart they would kitchen sink their forecast. I don’t think things turned out as bad as feared, so it’s difficult to say how the update will be received. The general investment climate is poor, so that might offset any good news.

The board is in danger of being polluted with meaningless drivel, just like another well known site.

If you have a short on BooHoo you’ve done well. If you are long and don’t need the money sit tight, this is Mr Market in action at his finest. This too shall pass.

If I’d offered to sell anyone shares in BooHoo at this price a year ago, they’d have gladly taken advantage of me. The market is the only place where when things get cheap, no one wants to buy. I worked in a number of private businesses, who experienced good years and some not so good. As they were fundamentally sound they all rebounded and experienced better times ahead. The owners just shrugged and got on with running the business. The ones that eventually sold did so with a few years of good performance behind them. No one ever sold in a down turn. And unlike a listed company, Mr Market didn’t chap their door at night and tell them what their company was valued at.

Been here before, heard it all before. When I exit this one it will only be after a string of positive results. Patience is a virtue.

Sure ... then why buy more shares? Asking for a friend.

What was their holding before the RNS? Answer - you have no idea.

Why would they increase their holding? Answer - you have no idea?

If buying more isn't an endorsement I don't know what is.

I'll explain.

Norges Bank buying 3% of BooHoo is seen as a vote of confidence in the longer term prospects of the company, especially given that the Norway Sovereign Wealth fund would have conducted extensive due diligence.

What PP1 is saying is that it wasn't that at all ... they just blindly invested because they had to own shares in listed companies. So it's not an endorsement, it's not a vote of confidence.

He doesn't have an agenda, honest Guv!

Over the decades we've had inflation, recessions, wars, depressions ... and share prices have risen. If someone had put their life savings into Amazon in 2002, they'd be spending today sipping Pina Colada's by the pool of their Caribbean villa overlooking the sea. But if you'd looked at the Amazon bulletin board at that time you'd think that the world was coming to an end.

There are about 43,000 listed companies worldwide, probably more. Norges Bank invest in 9,000.

So not every listed company?

They increased their holding in BooHoo to make them one of the largest investors. They didn't need to.

I'm sure it will lower the disposable income of people in general. It's really difficult to call. General households will be affected but what % of BooHoo customers will? Many are young and living with parents. When I was in that situation my general spending levels didn't change much, it was my parents who tightened their belts, not me. Prices may have to rise, but if that applies to all retailers it might not hit demand too much. Inflation might not be permanent, and with high levels of employment the impact might not be as bad as people think. With the world coming out of lockdowns and people wanting to go on a foreign holiday, the demand might still be good. It's a good question, but incredibly difficult to know the answer.

My agenda is to offer an honest opinion, and be honest about being long BooHoo, and the reasons why I am. I've been honest about the problems around BooHoo, but don't consider them to be permanent or insurmountable. That's my opinion, no more, no less.

I've no idea what your position is. You've never, to the best of my knowledge, stated it. Did you take a loss when long, and now you are trying to recoup your losses on a short?

You don't say if you are long or short?

You're not informing people, you are drip feeding negativity at every opportunity. I haven't spent much time on these boards, but I've read that you were a hyper bull on BooHoo not so long ago, making all sorts of price predictions? Now you are the polar opposite?

Is it possible that you are simply a serial ramper when you are long, and a de ramper when you are short? If so, no one in their right mind should take anything you say seriously.

From the Norges Bank website:

"In-depth knowledge of our largest equity investments help us achieve our goal of the highest possible return after costs"

"We believe that our active management improves our ability to be a responsible investor"

"in-depth knowledge" ... "active management" ... suggests they are not randomly buying every company like an index investor.

So why did they buy 3% of BooHoo? My guess is that they conducted "in-depth" research and thought that it had good prospects long term.

PP1 - I just listen to you, and your superior knowledge, about everything! I mean, it's not like you're a poster with an agenda, is it?

Yes, his experience in 2008 would be a great book. He was £6m up at some point, and he got hammered by the financial crash. I recall him saying that he was buying on margin then, and that combined with a small company focus really screwed him. That's tough, and he's done well to bounce back from that. I too was surprised that he is using margin? Maybe old habits die hard. As for me, this is my only AIM stock, and the others are thankfully doing well, and might do better if things get worse.