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Impossible to say, really. The CEO will be under pressure to present a positive message, so I’m not expecting a doom laden update, more likely to be a sunny uplands “jam tomorrow” one. I think the dividend cut is baked in, so I’d only expect a major SP move on that if the cut is more drastic than consensus. I’ll be interested to see if Elliot reveal their stake this week. I’m not always happy to see an activist shareholder but I think in this case it’s a positive, and will certainly focus minds on the Board.

I rarely buy anything that goes up in price shortly after I’ve bought it. This one will play out over the next 12-18 months.

Elliot Management, activist investor, take a large stake ... FT reports.

No. Perhaps it will show up tomorrow?

I’d sold out of my major holdings by 27 Feb, prompted by a CNBC interview with Paul Tudor Jones. He said words to the effect that if the virus came to the west it would be devastating for markets. The risk was known by then and markets were sliding. So 27 Feb doesn’t represent “before” Covid-19.

3cardbrag. The SP started 2020 about 145p, so it’s no where near were it was? As the news came out of China all shares slid, before falling like a stone when it became clear that we had a pandemic on our hands. ITV has pulled its dividend and paid down debt. So unlike others it has not had to raise funds to survive ... so when the dividend is reinstated expect another leg up.

Reminder. Tom soiled himself and sold for a loss at 80p. If only he’d listened to wiser heads he’d have been able to sell out at 40% higher. And he’d have saved himself a laundry bill.

Buffett is not a “bottom feeder”, although he was schooled by Benjamin Graham at Colombia University and at his firm Graham Newman. He dropped that strategy several decades ago, influenced to a great extent by his investment partner Charlie Munger and the writings of Philip Fisher. He’s looking to buy a good company with growth prospects at a fair price. The See’s Candy purchase is a good example of that.

The “master” Jesse Livermore, after once again losing a fortune from speculation, took a pistol and blew his brains out in the cloakroom of New York’s Sherry Netherlands hotel. A sad ending to a fascinating character ... there are risks with both momentum and value, particularly if your strategy involves investing on margin.

You might also want to add an academic paper by Shumway (2001) who found that half the variables included in Altman Z score are no longer predictive of bankruptcy. The study was confirmed by Chava and Jarrow (2004) using expanded data. These measures are one of a number of measures to look at ... but the idea that GSK, BAT, etc are imminent bankrupts is fanciful. I tend to agree with some of the comments that at lower levels it might be an M&A target. The split is likely to release value.

I think it was Buffett that said words to the effect that the stock market is the only place where no one wants to buy when the product is on sale. ITV was down around 56 and is now 108 ... in less than a year? Just one example of many. At 56 the BB was full of fear but once over 100 the opposite, great optimism. It’s a weird game, investing.

GSK trading at the lows when it is in the process of splitting in two and has the strongest drug pipeline in a decade? I think UK investors are a little bit dividend obsessed, bringing the rate in line with peers makes sense to me, and might well lead to better growth from both companies in the future.

You will start to see some original content on Britbox, they only need a hit or two to get it up and running.

I like to remind myself that Netflix were posting DVD’s through letterboxes not so long ago. This industry is in the early stages of transformation. I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised to see all terrestrial television transfer to streaming, including the BBC. It’s impossible to predict where ITV will be in 5 years time or what the business model will look like. I can’t help thinking though that it will be part of something bigger. Industry consolidation looks likely.

My thoughts are that ITV needs some good news on the business or macro level to move from here. The SP manipulation of Goldman/Liberty appears to have been engineered to lower the cost of ownership of the Liberty stake. I believe this is something they have done before. But thankfully that phase appears to be over. So the millstone is no longer round ITV’s neck. The next update is in March, and it’s possible we’ll get some news on the dividend and future prospects. With the success of the vaccine roll-out I would expect the forward statement to be positive. Full year numbers will be historically poor but markets look forward. If net debt has been lowered that would be a further positive. Overall I expect the SP to be higher by the end of the year than it is today.

I think the imminent crash is referring to the overvalued US technology market. Tesla is being priced as if it will be the only car company in the world in 10 years time. It’s not referring to the UK market, which is historically low. So if you own Tesla by all means take your profits, but I’d be wary of bailing out of ITV. As we move out of winter and into late Spring and Summer I’d expect society to be opening up. If the Government is worried about new variants then quarantine restrictions could impact on holiday advertisements. My target price is around 150, and higher if subsequent updates beat expectations. Bear in mind that dividends are suspended, but this is unlikely to last forever. So I’m personally okay holding, as I think there is more to go.

I’m not worried at all, as the vaccine is rolling out at a tremendous pace. It will soon be at a level where the most vulnerable are completely covered and the programme moves on to younger people who are virtually unaffected by any variant. We may well have an annual Covid vaccine, and that’s good news for pharma stocks.

I suspect UK domestic stocks will bounce first followed later by holiday and travel related stocks. I’d only invest in those that have the funds to last into 2022. But as far as ITV are concerned I think they will be beneficiaries ... net debt has been falling, and ads will pick up strongly as the UK opens up. Admissions to hospital are dropping and one day soon they will drop steeply ... but by that time you’ll have missed the surge. The market will move before that becomes obvious to everyone. It’s always darkest before the dawn.

I think the Goldman games have largely stopped, and I’ve no idea why? The lull in the share price is consistent with the Covid headlines, and most domestic stocks have retreated at the same time. So ITV’s dip is no real surprise.

But I’m watching the factual information carefully, rather than the Government’s messaging, which looks like negative spin to ensure compliance to rules whilst people receive their jab. I get the impression they are attempting to underpromise and over deliver, rather than the fiasco of false optimism that usually comes from the buffoon Johnson. But case numbers and deaths are falling, jabs are being accelerated. So compared to last year there is cause for optimism. With travel restrictions to avoid new variants I’m guessing the domestic stocks that cater to a UK audience will bounce first, so pubs, restaurants ... and ITV.

My vote for the worst prediction of 2020 was that it would take four years for ITV to get back to 70p.

I just can’t for the life of me remember who the fool was that made it?

There was a review in the Times column today with the rating AVOID? The funniest thing about the article is that it highlighted many positives about Sage, making their final verdict seem laughable. They mentioned that Sage were in catch up mode with Xeros and Intuit, but that they were investing more to fix that issue. They acknowledged that this was the right thing to do. They also mentioned that Nick Train and Terry Smith were holders. Not exactly idiots. Bizarre article. A few months back The Sunday Times gave an AVOID rating in ITV, only for it to jump 60% plus higher. I often wonder if they get a bung from whoever supplies their research?

We are going through the darkest days of the pandemic and the news flow suggests that we will all be in lockdown to at least Easter. That probably explains the swoon in the market, with shares most exposed to Covid being hit the most. My view is that this phase will soon pass, and when the UK opens up there will be a mini consumer boom. Those companies that have survived the pandemic will increase market share at the expense of those that could not. ITV has managed to get through this without adding debt. In fact, net debt has fallen. I’d expect an advertising boom to accompany the consumer boom, and the ensuing optimism to push ITV much higher. It’s difficult to imagine that scenario today, but markets move quicker than people expect.

I hope everyone has a successful 2021, yes Tom, even you! Let’s hope we finally see the back of Covid-19 ... onwards an upwards for ITV ... lower debt and no Goldman Sachs shenanigans. Happy New Year.