Member Info for Aldebaran

Avacta is not "mine" but I have just added another £5k their for obvious reasons.

Why can't I comment on multiple stocks and why do I have to stick to avacta?

15,152 shares.

Not topped up in along time but confidently done so today ;-) ;-)

Just added another 5k

Adjusted EBITDA says it all for me..huge red flag.

Earnings Before I Tricked Dumb Auditors

EBITDA or Adjusted EBITDA?

Not that it matters much as both are just accounting tricks to make the numbers look better to people who don't fault understand.

Their is a reason why the SP is down despite these seemingly good updates

Runner runner both avacta and boom operate in entirely different markets and have different business models.

Boom is driving revenue to generate cash which it is doing an extremely poor job of.

Avacta is in clinical trials generating data for a big pharmaceutical buyout. The value of their IP is already in the billions. A cancer targeted warhead delivery system that only attacks cancer cells and leaves the rest of the body healthy... how much is that worth do you think?

Why people here are obsessed with bringing up avacta i never know. Stick to boom and the 3% cash conversion AT BEST and tell me why its worth current value and you expect it to increase. It's laughable

TheBiGShow you believe your figures are accurate then your saying your happy with a company that only covert 3% of its sales into cash. This is an atrocious return on investment. People are better with their money in a bank than here. Conversion needs to be at least 10% and that's without the risk premium.

Many can't seem to understand basic finances and are the ones continually stunned by audiobooms plummeting value.

Current valuation looks.... lofty

Where will it come from any idea guys?

Have to say at over £100m market cap it probably would be a good idea for managers to be considering a placing. 25% discount wouldn't be the end of the world but as price continues to slide it gets worse. They should just bite the bullet now

Not quite no because the upside keeps growing far outpacing any dilution.

Let's say they double the share count to 800m that provides enough money to get 6103 well past the point required. He'll let's go one step further keeping mathematics simple and say there is 1billion shares in issue at takeover point.

How much is avacta worth next year when presumably they have 6103 demonstrating outstanding safety and efficacy plus they have ava6000 flying through phase 2 with a partner and more drugs in the pipeline going through IND?

10billion, 20 billion, 50billion? 100billion? Choose your number and divide it by 1billion shares and I think you'll find that investing at any level the past few years is more than worth it. So not might as well not bother.

And

Like stated already cc could dilute us already but she hasn't. She is looking for the optimal deal which will come.

What is it with the essays honestly ...

Zzzz

Has this guy really got nothing better to do like go to the gym, talk with a relative, gardening lol

Not even invested goes on holiday and first day back he's here writing war an piece its sad and embarrassing.

I'm seeing all sorts of different projections for AVA6000 revenue, all ranging in the billions which doesn't even factor in being able to expand existing patient population etc so if we said AVA6000 is a £2Bn sales opportunity in 5 years its not unreasonable to expect big pharma to pay a 4x premium for that NOW. Or at least once they see P1b data... which they will see way before us plebs.

Maybe they aren't interested and more looking at 6103 but surely given the method of action is proven and the exceptional pre clinical data it could lead them to take a chance on owning it NOW what I am thinking and you shouldn't rule out is that BP see enough with 6000 P1b data and could launch a bid which is basically backed up by 6000 sales and they get 6103 for free. Or they try anyway.

If 6103 is as good as we all hope it could easily multiply any buyout figure by an order of magnitude to what they could get it for now. Put it this way I would not be surprised to see some offer launched this year once they have enough p1b data to back up a £5Bn or so offer. That pays itself back in a few short years and 6103 could be the cherry on the cake

Codejunkie that is the goal for avacta. Appease shareholders, minimise dilution, allow clinical progress to be realised in the share price, make a deal for a third party warhead to be used with precision then sets us in reasonable negotiating position for TNBC or STS partnership.

RH actually understands avacta and precision I can tell you that. He knows the potential and also understands AIM and that going for a discount is counterproductive. Get the CLN sorted and GSA close out it sets off a chain reaction rerate here. Market currently treading water in terms of sp hence the doji candles and low volume. It will either head towards alltime low with no cln resolution or start the journey towards alltime high.

I'm confident the cln will be sorted. It's just the terms to be finalised;) ;)

Thanks Asperger

What's the latest percentage buyback completed here please anyone

CJ, avacta only need or should I say want to cover the next few cln payments to appease shareholders and so the clinical progress can be recognised in the share price giving them better optionality in future should a fundraise be needed.

Share price at Christmas is depends whether funds have been raised to get INITIAL 6103 data or not. If a deal has been signed for third party warhead and no CLN weighing us down id expect avacta to be valued between 500m and 1bn. If they then sign a partnership for TNBC and or have accelerated or fast track for SGC then you could expect 1bn+ valuation, if none of the above then alltime lows. Next 6months is vital.

If offer price didn't matter and CC has no regard for private investors then why hasn't she raised already at a fat discount like ur hoping for?

It's ok saying why hasn't a deal been signed yet if precision is so good but flip it around why hasn't a massively discounted placing come?

Thanka to you some PI's now need over 100% to just brake even. Notice heavy selling again today. Blaming it on traders again or people who aren't as smart as u lot and don't understand BOOM or has realisation set in yet?

All that revenue and naff all profit. It's just not a viable business. Zero USP either. I fear there will be a retest of the alltime low again shortly

Plenty of partnering interest, it was referred to about a million times in recent PL note so there are enough people now in the data room seeing things way before we do. A deal will come out of the blue for us. This obsession with a massive discount placing is paranoia fuelled by the past few years if AIM PI's being rinsed.

Times are changing and avacta are marching on with the science which gets better and a TAM that gets larger at every juncture. Every reason to believe there are many behind the scenes willing to fund this.

Tempus AI involvement is a genius step to mitigating the p1b risk as is the 4year p1a trial data. Now more than doubling SGC pfs with some big hitters on the bored and SAB in place. You won't get much more derisked than that.

People seem to want all the certainty that comes with a drug in P3 trials for a price of a new startup not even in the clinic. Avacta data is worth something. Considering nobody else has what we have, I think this is a lot more than our current market cap

Funding comes through firstly licensing precision for 3rd party warhead and secondly a partner taking TNBC... thought it was obvious by now.

Touk is expecting a 100m raise at a 50% discount. Not gonna happen with deals and data right around the corner.

Avacta will do a small private placing each month and the shares issued will have a lock-in period so the market won't retrace to the price (if they're issued at a discount and they might be I'm not saying 100% that they won't).

My own view is that the shares will be issued at VWAP or a premium and will come with warranty exercisable at whatever price in the future. Something like 1 warrant for every 10 shares. A nice tidy little offer which is risk free for the buyer and yet if avacta go on to do what we all expect could be extremely lucrative for the purchaser.

I.e. for anyone unsure. Let's say the purchaser ends up with 2m warrants exercisable at £1, they can choose not to exercise them OR if the SP reaches £10 or £20 or whatever, they can then buy them for £1 and make an absolute killing.

Not everything has to be massive discount placings. The market has improved since those days and avacta are so much more advanced and closer to commercialisation.

Watch this space