Member Info for Albinio74

In a nut shell, exploration company investments are risky but potentially very rewarding.

Announcements of deals wont do any harm but it seems until you get more info on what the deals actually mean in terms of figures the price may bumble around a bit. I am not sure the price factors in the last comments regarding sales being more than the entire previous year when most of the distribution announcements had not been made or had only just started to impact on things. H2 could be very interesting if there is anything to this work with a major partner, but even failing that, if they keep tying up more deals, bearing in mind the m/cap and cash balance as well as the expanding sector they are involved in, there still seems a great chance here for upward SP movement.

If we get a resource estimate of even a third of that initially (Bluejay recently upgraded theirs), and the market perceives it as a viable opportunity it should give us a real chance of a big SP boost. I am still a little unsure on what challenges TBS faces compared to their Dundas project. Possibly TBS a little further away from existing infrastructure but as literally next to their project I would not have thought that is a major obstacle. In fact if Bluejay have to improve/extend infrastructure around their "mine" then that could potentially indirectly improve the case for viability at TBS.

Bit of a sweeping statement - plenty here fully understand the speculative nature of investments like this. It makes sense that those that have invested post positive comments, personally i prefer a bit of balance and ignore the overly rampy comments and equally the persistent negative posters - you have to question why such people are invested or if not, why they keep commenting.

Hi - no worries. Just to clarify, my comments were more in response to WO - he seemed to be suggesting todays RNS dooms us to an SP drop off to mid 0.2s - maybe the case, not a certainty though, and that ultimately real info on TBS and HH will be key here. My reference to your post and Spreadex involvement with GGP was suggesting i think you may be right - most would have taken long positions on GGP with Newmont involvement hence them taking a 5% holding in GGP. My point being (if the circumstances were the same) there seemed no direct correlation between sp and Spreadex involvement although i do recall quite a lot of negative comments at the time.

To be fair Spreadex took up a 5% position in Greatland Gold - don't recall it having a big impact on SP and at the time they were thought to be on the brink of a deal with Newmont so ties in with Rambo's explanation below (most felt the GGP price could have gone through the roof .... It did not). Won't pretend i know what will happen though all very speculative - news from HH and TBS through the rest of this year will make or break Alba .... Not Spreadex.

I had always thought the involvement of Spreadex was seen as a bit iffy (cant claim to be particularly knowledgeable) - do they use ownership of shares as a hedge?

Another distribution agreement great news though.

does not help this share.

Well nothing really to get excited about, but they have to let us know as these things occur, and it is an inexpensive way of keeping their hand in something that could of interest in future. The fact they seem to be doing just the basics to keep the licence, along with the sidelining of Melville Bay and the moratorium period granted on Amitsoq suggests to me they are clearly prioritising TBS, Inglefield and Clogau, as well as ramping up their involvement with HH (as shown by the hired oil consultants). That is my positive spin on it anyway.

Bluejay have issued an update today. Nothing earth shattering but worth a look for Alba investors like myself that grow frustrated as it is a reasonably detailed rns and illustrates some of the challenges ahead but also highlights the potential and that for all our criticisms, that Alba have done pretty well with TBS since last August. We are investing in a sub 10m mcap company with no income. It is likely to be a bumpy ride but the potential gains are substantial as are the risks. If too much then we can of course invest in companies further along the line with less risk but less upside - like Bluejay. I have some concerns here and not sure i will be rushing to invest more for now, but will be holding what i have. We do not need much for the SP to start moving up significantly.

Agree - a mixture of bad luck, some bad decisons and some poor timing judgements - not a conspiracy. Also in a tricky location in and industry riddled with delays and elements of chance. As far as undervalued oil stocks go there can't be many better opportunities than this where the risk is largely counterbalanced (generating cash, multiple drills, no debt and high oil price).

I emailed Alba in December and some sections of the pasted response below are literally word for word in the generic response I received (my response was much shorter, basically saying keep an eye out for more news). So much of the below could be true (or they have at some point had an email from Alba) but it is the second to last paragraph i am most unsure of. Most of the rest is actually contained in RNS releases so fairly typical of company emials to investor queries.

Hi Charlie - yes fully get where you are coming from. However a company with no income will need to repeatedly raise funds, my issue is less with fund raises but the out of the blue nature of the second one and lack of detail. For example details in their presentation earlier this year for development of HH and the expected time line (assuming things go to plan) was welcome - I would like to see that level of detail and structured forward planning for TBS and Clogau too. So currently we are getting details basically saying we looking at mapping this, testing samples of that, have encouraging data on this etc (all fine) What we really want is TBS JORC followed by a definitive staged process and estimated timescale. e.g. the next stage will be looking for off take partners, releasing test samples of processed product to potential customers, applying for varying permissions/licences, feasibility studies etc. It is possible if HH and TBS deliver SP boosting news this summer/Autumn that future fund raises could be from a higher SP which would be welcome. I could also be clueless and perhaps the company will be awash with cash within a year from Clogau, Brockham and HH. Or trading at such an increased sp due to sentiment gained form incredible info from HH flow tests, the Brockham sidetrack and TBS that a few million fund raise will be a tiny % of Mcap. We can dream can't we. I guess that is why a lot of us are here.

In sentiment I agree, it is the lack of info with the last fund raise that irritates, I think one was for HH commitments and one for keeping everything else ticking over. However I would not want their capacity to keep the lights on hindered. They will need plenty of fund raises to develop the assets even if things go quite well. For example, if HH proves commercial I doubt any significant income will come our way until late 2019 or 2020. If TBS proves as good as we hope they will need millions to progress it - perhaps HH can get us there but before then we will need to jump through varying costly hoops. I just don't see Clogau delivering us what we need even if there is a decent return on the company investment - just does not seem to be on a scale that is worth our time to me, plus slightly sceptical about an asset that just seems to get passed around. Still slightly confused by Amitsoq going from centre stage to sideshow due to "sub optimal" conditions. Melville Bay barely worth a mention despite JORC and exploration JV announced last year. Still very interestead to see how Inglefield turns out. However if no significant positive news on TBS and HH this year I won't be hanging around next year barring astonishing news on Brockham, Inglefield or Amitsoq that pumps the SP. I have stopped accumulating for now and may halve my holding at next .4 + spike unless newsflow picks up.

Probably one i will come back to - seems very solid and under priced just seemingly no interest in courting uk investors - part of me wonders why they bothered with an AIM listing - if they keep growing and no one notices you'll end up with 100% yield div in few years!

Yeah spot on - on paper lots going for it, been watching on and off for a year, thought it seemed like some bigger buys than normal going through with a decent stream of news flow but then nothing. Silence. So already moved from this to Microsaic. But will keep watching things here.

Yeah i think it looks a fairly steady bet with the div and improving fundamental outlook. Usually like to go for higher risk speculative very low cap shares but potential here for decent returns with moderate sp growth and dividend yields.

Fair enough - i may have misunderstood some of your posts. I do believe this could be a huge gain for me if the stars align - that is why i spend time trying to find low cap stocks but i don't think these gains are necessarily based on one or two announcements. I know some get fed up with Bluejay talk but if you go through their RNSs' it shows how many steps they went through to get to where they are (although i do think if they achieve their aims it should make it easier for us at TBS). It does seem likely that if lots of oil trucks are coming and going from HH the sp will spike but no idea how high - some burnt fingers around from ukog/bb still so may effect sentiment. Equally if hardly any oil lorries are seen (or none) i have no idea how low the sp would go - possibly a certain level of failure already built into the low sp that has not benefited really so far from weald speculation.

The outcome is uncertain as with pretty much all stock/share investments, and very much so with exploration plays like this. There is lots of data and info to base your decisions on and that makes it far better than a coin toss. HH defo oil, is it commercial - flow tests will tell us. Oil at Brockham a fact, permisions and commercial questions over the sidetrack to be resolved. Defo Ilmenite at TBS - can we nip into the Bluejay slipstream is the question and raise the funding - JORC this year will help answer that. Defo Graphite at Amitsoq etc etc. Re good money after bad. Only a fool averages down on a share they think is a dud and unlikely to increase sp. You only invest more if you think the share will go up from that point. I am not happy with sone things here but overall huge potential v tiny mcap makes it a risk i am willing to take ....... For now.