Member Info for Alas_Smith

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/17/business/europe-shipping-emissions-tax-covid-recovery/index.html

Rupans.... Spot on! And although this refers to a rival ship, once there is SOME revenue from cruise operations for Saga, the immediate impact will be seen and reflected in eliminating many of the fixed costs of an anchored ship.

The pareto principle for Saga is not perfectly noted, but is a background snippet. 80% profits are from one division (insurance) and 80% costs are in another (travel). Revenues are (broadly) evenly split between insurance and cruises.

jedclampit, GREATER does not mean exactly. It helped that my father was Head of Investment for a stockbroker firm, but I cannot remember if he worked for Capel Cure Myers or Kitcat & Aitkin at that time. In 1975 I began further education and put my holiday money from temporary jobs to buy shares in Shell, the first equity I bought. In those days private investors needed to go into a bank and fill in a form. A couple of days later a dealing note accompanied by a certificate arrived. The second investment was in a company called Microvitec. My third purchase was in the summer of 1977 and it was a Treasury Gilt. As it was uneconomic to deal in amounts at the time under £1,000 my purchases were few and far between. My failures include Cenes, Torotrak, Claims Direct, Marconi, Graphene Nanochem. Plenty of other holdings have performed badly - Saga for instance. Failures have the questionable advantage as capital losses outside SIPP or ISA wrapper can be carried forward indefinitely. Successes this year include my holdings in Nvidia, Adyen, Abcam, Adobe and Zoetis

BlueVeiner, if that was directed at me, it is simply that I can demonstrate over the greater part of 50 years that I have many more successes than failures in my choice of investments. My portfolio once I retire will need to last for a further 30 years, maybe more. A 30 year timescale can afford a higher degree of risk. Although the SP in Saga has collapsed this year by 70% the cause is obvious. My portfolio although down a whopping 34% in the first 2 weeks in March is up this year by almost 6%. Saga is one of 52 holdings and represents under 1% of portfolio wealth.

Michaelwood47, I think you are painting too rosy a picture. Although the profits from insurance arm were the bulk of those for the group, cruises contributed half of the revenues. Ships have pretty high running costs even if they are anchored up. There is no certainty that a viable and tolerated vaccine will be discovered let alone one in production soon. From October the potential for seasonal 'flu will be with us as further complication. Don't get me wrong, I remain buying at these levels. I am surprised that recent share transactions have not triggered comment.

Berniethebiker. At the point of writing and with the data from John Hopkins University in front of me, UK has recorded 315,600 cases of Covid 19. Cases in the UK are GENTLY rising from a low on 30 June and are around 1,000 new case per day. Spain had a very sharp decline from March to a low on 2 June and bumped along the bottom of its curve with roughly 500 cases per day. Cases began rising on 6 July and although there are UP spikes in the figures, these are rising at roughly 4,500 per day. The flat element for UK was very short to suggest to me that the UK is still in a 1st wave but Spain very definitely in a 2nd wave.
Local measures in both countries should hopefully address this. As far as game over for EasyJet suggested by at least one contributor, well, that is, IMO, fantasy. The travel sector is going to recover but not all componants in that sector will recover. Turbulence for all constituents in this sector.

Sadly, Saga needs to use every scrap of revenue to mitigate the effects of the fixed costs to run its cruise business. IMO, the liklihood of either a profit being declared in the immediate term or a special dividend for the next 12-18 months is slender. I have, however, added to my holding today taking advantage of a weak share price.

Yes Static, it is indeed .
I placed complaint with ADVFN that was ignored and followed it up with a Subject Access Request under General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR). Complaint that this was not provided within the limits brought additional complaint to the ICO. My account was suspended while information was collected and printed off. Paperwork (about 10 reams) has been received but my account remains suspended.

Forgive the impertinence in posting. For around 20 years I haunted another site as EJ though am no longer welcome there. Well, I have a hunch..... it looks as if recent share price movement over the last few days to test recent lows is over.
“Epicentre” companies would be slower to recover from the fallout that my portfolio as a whole suffered in late Feb to mid March (roughly 17 years salary) but there would always be a point where they would either play catch up or file for bankruptcy.
I suggest that the catalyst for recovery was the announcement today by Russia of a vaccive for Covid19. It might not be fully tested or approved by the WHO, but it has been approved for public health in Russia. It marks the point where investors can reasonably accept that a viable and effective vaccine can address a novel disease. The Russian one, might not be the best or only one, but it is a starting point.
And this provides confidence for investors to consider the companies that have not recovered from market collapse in Feb/March. My hunch therefore is that the worst is behind us... sure, we might have local lockdowns in all the countries that EZJ fly between, but our lives will gradually return to normal.
Sorry to ramble.

Trades can be misleading, but with Virgin Atlantic looking to re-structure, my money is that either Elliott are re-building their stake or a director has chucked some money into the hat. The case to buy shares in Virgin is flimsy for Elliott as the slots and aircraft have been mortgaged and the company has rarely turned a profit. At least we know that Saga is profitable even with a massive jolt to remove 50% turnover but retain most, if not all, of the costs.
Epicentre companies from the huge drop in March have not yet fully recovered whereas most other sectors it is back to "business as usual". Epicentre sectors include airlines, oil, mining, retail, hospitality and discretionary spend. Whether the vaccine claimed by Russia is approved by the WHO, it is, nevertheless the beginning of the end for SARS-CoV 2 and although probably not thoroughly tested, it might be sufficiently viable as an interim measure. A measure that suggest to me that at least one and quite probably several fully tested vaccines are viable and will be in production in the next 12 months.
The market is forward looking and with a hint of an end in sight, it is probably sufficient catalyst to mark the point when the companies left behind in the V shaped recovery play catchup.
I'd very much prefer that the share price were higher than at present as I don't buy shares to break even. The deals out of hours might trigger RNS and flesh out any hypothesis.

Pokerchips, Hastings is easier to value than Saga. It is not as diverse and not as concentrated. While that seems to contradict logic, a brief explantion might help. Hastings is focussed on Home and Motor Insurance preferring to deal direct with the public and with the minimum of consumer contact. Saga has a broad "scattershot" approach to focus on lifestyle for those aged 50+ to include home, travel and motor insurance, but with cross selling of holidays, tours and cruises.
Cruises are in high fashion at the moment and have taken over from accompanied tours (peaked between '90's and 2015) . Despite an aging population, the need for care homes and temporary care staff finished in the first few years of this century. And, quite properly Saga have woken up to that and have sold off those arms.
So now we have a more focussed business, one which has all the hallmarks of being separately listed or broken up. That was possibly the catalyst for Elliott.
Since then, a global pandemic is unfolding with the first wave in full swing in USA and a sencod wave having started in Australia, Japan, Spain and, I fear UK. This has caused the complete shutdown for the cruise division, but with the huge cost of maintenance.
Cruises, IMO, will perhaps restart next March, but not much earlier. Sure there will be mitigation in place that will probably appeal to a few holidaymakers, but, I suspect that holidays on a floating petri dish will take many more years to recover than flying.
In short, I believe there is greater chance of breakup or separate listing for the 2 cores of Saga now than there was when Elliott announced their stake. It is perhaps more so now, Elliott having taking some cash off the table for Virgin Atlantic Airways in expectation of reorganisation. Virgin filed for Ch 15 bankruptcy in US yesterday.
Ch15 bankruptcy is temporary protection from creditors to allow for a company whose assets are outside USA to restructure. Elliott might or might not get a stake in that airline.
I see no compelling case to deal in the shares of Saga at the moment.

Pianista, there are different risks involved. I have (and will) never been (go) on a cruise as I suffer with motion sickness even on a short ferry crossing so I could be writing complete tripe. Cruise ships have public areas where there is high chance of contact (rails on corridors, door handles, deck chair arms, dining rooms from buffet cutlery, theatres, bars etc). But, much of this can be mitigated against with spray disinfectant close to every doorway, hand sanitiser at entrance to indoor areas such as dance rooms, theatres and a thorough clean of ships each night while confined to cabins. But, should a passenger be incubating Covid19 and not presenting symptoms, there is potential for swift spread as this is a virus that is highly viable. Masks will help, but I don't suppose that many will want to wear one while on holiday.

Airports have similar danger with passengers in close proximity - passport control, hand luggage screening, baggage pickup, public lifts, rails, handles, transfer on buses between gate and aircraft and, of course, on the actual flight with air that is recycled. It is not uncommon to read of respiritory issues such as colds and coughs that are often attributed to flying, presumably from filters that are not changed or malfunction.

There will be a point when a vaccine may be discovered. I suspect more likely that in such search for a vaccine it will lead to the discovery of drugs that effectively treat patients to reduce the high incidence of death. In the meanwhile, the share price seems pretty stable bobbing along at depressed (and depressing) levels.

Looking back to 12 March, it was at that point where my portfolio had dropped the equivalent of 17 years salary from an all time high on 21 Feb. And although my portfolio as a whole has recovered and testing new highs, a couple of holdings are languishing at depressed and depressing prices. Saga is one, EasyJat another and Anglo Pacific a third.
The SP for Saga seems well and truly stuck in a rut and totally range bound. The range is not good. It is between 14.5p and 20p. But that does not mean that the company is dead or that there is not money to be made. Covid 19 will not last forever. There will be a number of scenario that could play out. In no particular order, a ****tail of drugs used to stabilise patients that have the greatest reaction, global measures taken to prevent infection, mutations are minimal and mortality reduced, vaccine(s) is(are) discovered that are tolerated, easily distributed and widely available and the perceived risk reduced.
Since the Princess Cruise line has extended the down time before the resumption of cruises, so we must assume that Saga take similar response.
But, the bulk of revenues and profits are generated from insurance. Recovery in the share price will happen, of that I am certain.
The educated in the World will understand the Thucydides trap. I am not convinced that there are many in power with an understanding of history and the relevance for the future. A future, of course that is being designed today.

You have probably noticed at the beginning of the day there is an auction with an Uncrossing Trade, the same at midday and a third at 16:30 to determine the closing price. Each has a 5 min window and this can be extended.
The immediate question is: What is an Uncrossing Trade? Simply put it is a balancing exercise. The morning one allows Market Makers to set out their table and buy and sell shares that are on the order book that have been placed out of hours and allow matched bargains to be executed. If there is news released at 7am, then the implication of that news is taken into account when matching bargains. In a sense it provides the opening price - and usually at a wide spread.
As normal trading starts, market makers adjust their stalls to cope with buyers and sellers and have an orderly market. Often, if they need to attract buyers they will raise the bid price and if they need to attract sellers they will lower it. Sounds contradictory, but buyers tend to buy when the price is rising and sell if it is falling.
At midday, the auction is repeated but it is based on the price immediately prior to the auction. It will also allow MM's to adjust their holdings. The end of the day is a mopping up exercise and matches the majority of trades on both sides of the order book and will give the closing price.
Everything starts afresh in the morning.
I hope that this is helpful. Sometimes there is no midday auction - usually with a lightly traded stock or nothing on the order book. What I have found is that the greatest volatility is at the opening bell if there is news. Of course, this sort of information is rather more beneficial to a trader than an investor. An investor tends to look at the enterprise as an entity and is not too fussed on having point of entry at the keenest price - good enough price is good enough.
For me, well Saga plc has its risks - it is not a share for widows and orphans at the moment as uncertainty is too great - for a portfolio structured for growth from recovery, it is an excellent candidate. Are the better ones out there? Maybe - but have I researched them? No. Anyway, I am underwater with my holding at the moment but there is no compelling reason to sell.
Nor to buy, for that matter either !

The timing of trades these days might be different from the "old days". For every company that is quoted these days, the market is electronic based but has its principles based on the "rules" in place which evolved over many years.
Market Makers set their stalls out in the morning, rearrange things at midday and have a closing auction. Think of this as starting the day with the information released at 07:00 so there is 60 minutes to consider its implication, the stall is set out with a few orders that might need to be sold or bought and the bid and offer price proposed to the market.
Good news usually puts the bid price up and bad, the offer price down. I have generally found that there is wide discrepancy in the opening half hour while "the market" settles down.
Market makers make their money on the "brokers turn" (the difference between the bid and offer) and all the MM is trying to do is have a balance to encourage volume. Volume over the day is important because the total qty of shares is divided by the total number of transactions to give a NMS. This is the Normal Market Size and represents the ONLY qty of shares that a MM is obliged to deal in for each bargain that is executed.
In the old days, if a bargain (any trade whether a buy or a sell) is executed that is more than 3 x the NMS, then it is reported exactly 1 hour after the bargain was made and recorded as a "L" transaction. Where MM's had insufficient stock to fulfil orders, they were able to execute bargains between themselves and this was an "M" transaction.
These days L and M trades are seldom seen. I don't think I have seen one for 5 maybe 8 years. The rules therefore have changed to become cloudier for the ordinary mug punter (you and I). But the foundation remains intact, I suggest.
SO we take the bargain of 800,000 shares (it was actually a little higher) and we can see that it was an O trade - so an ordinary bargain either executed by an individual or by a representative for that individual. It could, at a pinch, be an aggregated trade for a group purchase as part of an aggregated order - you might for instance have a standing order (as I do) each month to buy shares in a company (in my case it is Shell and has been for 43 years). The pooled purchase is made as a single transaction.
But, I believe that the 1 hour rule remains intact for transactions that exceed the NMS by a factor of 3. And if you go back to 1 hour before the trade was displayed, you will find the bid and offer price. This should allow you to be able with a degree of confidence claim that the order was a buy or a sell. If, immediately afterwards, the price changed, then it was of sufficient size to "move the market" and you should look at the bargains before to determine if there was volatility in the spread to encourage shares onto the order book to satisfy the execution of this bargain.
Convoluted answer, but I hope it might give a little depth that might be helpful for volumes and ba

Today was spent in re-building data sets built up over 5 decades so that my portfolios are re-built. I am not following the nuances of daily prices with the assiduousnesss that I would like. The consequence is that volumes right now are un-important.
As a general rule of thumb (and I used this up to year 2000), every bargain executed with a value under £100,000 is domestic, above £1m it is institutional and between these are fund managers. In 2020, based, I suppose on my own perception of wealth, individual bargains under £200,000 are domestic and those for institutions has been raised to £5m.
A bargain of 800,000 shares might seem quite a lot of money, but there are an awful lot of very rich people around and this was a transaction of £130,000 or thereabouts. My hunch is that a discretionary portfolio is getting exposure to this company; the risk status in place being HIGH with the emphasis on CAPITAL GROWTH.
If you recall, the announcement from Elliott was made last year and the shares rose POST the announcement. In other words, the decision to buy was made weeks, perhaps months before, disclosed to the LSE and the company and executed in the market as if nothing unusual was happenning.
Don't forget that MM's can be long or short and NEVER need to disclose their position.
Good luck to all investors. I'd be interested to hear from those that are professionally involved in either the travel industry or the general insurance side of things. Anyway, as an aside and to answer BlueVeiner, I was the subject of cyber bullying that I reported to ADVFN. My claim was ignored for 3 weeks and simply dismissed - I was left with the sort of feelings that are a fraction that women might have if being constantly told that it is a "mans game" and "back to the kitchen/ironing board" sort of attitude. So I thought I would put them through the wringer with a Subject Access Report and insisting that every scrap of information held on their servers is sent to me in paper form along with telephone conversations as WAV files. My account there started in 2008...... there will be several thousand pages. That will absorb a lot of time for them and huge expense.... all for not taking a claim of bullying seriously.
Small things etc....

Not too fussed about the upside as that is conditional either from the sale of the travel and cruise side (unlikely), the sale of underwriting business to eliminate the bulk of debt (possible, but might imact on future earnings), a vaccine to allay fear of transmission of a virus with a 1% mortality rate or acceptance that a vaccine is never going to be found and we accept the persistent danger of viral infection as a manageable risk.
As it is clear that the countries are anxious to ensure their citizens return to work the only downside that I foresee are that travellers themselves are uncomfortable to return to cruises. I am not sure quite what mitigation is in place for the cruise ships, but it seems sensible that cruises restart only when infection control measures are in place.
Oh, I used to post on another site as EJ but have had my account suspended following a Data Subject Access Request. I doubt I will return to that site.