Member Info for Alas_Smith

Robleo, there is usually good reason for share price performance (or underperformance), particularly so with an investment trust. IMO the underlying assets that have weakened recently after a strong March and flat April. May has been as turbulent as the weather.

Short term volatility can be un-nerving, but more often than not, if investors can afford to do so, adding on down days to rebalance portfolio helps some whereas strengthening those that are making the greatest contribution to portfolio growth helps others.

Time in the market usually rewards investors

Bullettin boards have a nasty habit of attracting highly focussed remarks which have a sense of urgency. Of patticular concern to me are those that claim to have very substantial holdings and are following every nunce, twist and turnin the share price and claim that they are investors not traders and are not concerned about being underwater as their focus is on the long term.

More often than not, I will use the filter facility specifically on those that take this line. It is clear to me that they are worried about their exposure to the instrument involved and rely on the psychology that applause to their comtribution will mean that all will be well. Often these same person will claim market manipulation, short attack or some other unsubstantiated element to justify frustration.

I think that there has been just one occasion when I moved the market in an equity. It was a very lightly traded stock and i had “fat finger syndrome”. I placed a buy order for £10,000 shares and totally unknown to me at the time the NMS (normal market size) was £2,500. This was based on the average bargain executed over a rolling 3 month period. Now, £10,000 is not exactly big beans, but it was over 3x NMS so triggered an automatic 1 hour delay in reporting. (I did not know that at the time), but the market makers got a little excited. The share price began hopping around and in turn it triggered a flurry of bargains including trades between brokers. These are uncommon these days. The price moved up 0.75% and never fell back. Co-incidence, IMO as private investors tend to fizzle out when executing single bargains greater than £250k. The real movers are news and fund managers. Sadly with the proliferation of algorithmic bargains, fund managers can disguise their tracks.
I doubt that I could move any equity with a bargain of that size these days.
The strategy therefore is to ignore the loudest voices on BB’s and certainly ignore those that appear desperate and bang on about the benefit of a long term view.or that the market makers will not prise a share from their hands until it reaches £xyz.

The wise can learn more from a fool than a fool from the wise. I have much to learn.

To sell when the risk of owning shares has increased and it no longer benefits me. There is no advantage in setting a price as I have learned to run my profits. The sectors that have the greatest potential in the years ahead are renewables, healthcare and technology IMO so over the last 3-4 years have been skewing my portfolio in those directions.

Other sectors have short term influence that I expect to do very well so will use Investment Trusts to enjoy any uplift. UK as a market since 2016 Brexit announcement has been avoided by international investors. Press reports and influential commentators such as the Bank of England Chief Economist are talking up the prospects. Thus adding to my holdings in THRG and MTU.

Not, of course advice, simply my thought process and execution of decisions that I am making. My ISA and that for my wife are managed for me. I look after our SIPPS, tiny dealing accounts to which monthly savings are added and the acounts for my children.

My financial target is simply to beat the market. Sometimes it is beaten by a wide margin and others not so. I am improving where for the first 20 years averaged 8%, years 10 to 30 had improved to 12%, 20 to 30 improved slighly to 12.5% and now is running very well indeed with the best years having gains of over 20%. This has brought my long term (42 yr) average to 13.6%

I’ve been thinking about the question of “buying the dip” a little more so here goes. My original answer was intended to address from a common sense perspective whether shares in an investment trust are expensive or cheap when compared with the assets on which valuation is secured.

The share price of this IT have fallen since your question was published but it might not mean that the valuation of the IT relative to the NAV has fallen. It might have actually risen. For this, or any other IT, the current NAV should be compared with historic average NAV to determine if a divergence exists. A change of manager might, even with unchanged underlying assets, cause a major shift from discount to premium or vice versa.
Your question is thus very sophisticated and intelligent.

If it is similar to Virolens, that is probably very good news despite potentially as a rival to TTG. My thought process is that active air crew in service should have different tests from passengers and in using similar, though, I assume with different patent protection for the IP thus endorsing the use of rapid screening and minimally invasive.

This has been endorsed with a buy note from RBC issued today - target increased from 280p to 290p.

May (for me) has always been an exciting month with wild and ramdom swings in prices in indvidual holdings that mirror the weather. Overall, the result measured in terms of wealth invested has usually been to end the month little changed from the start. And this year is no different. 6% movement for some holdings on a daily basis in the absence of news has been a common feature.
This week I have been up on the hills above our home looking at timber. We had mist, bright sunshine, hail, snow, drizzle, fog strong wind and sunshine on Monday with a 20 degree range of temperatures, from -3 to 17 and settled at 14.
Tuesday had fine start that deteriorated to sleet and thunder followed by warmth and sunshine as the day wore on and today after a misty start there was no wind and temperature rose to 18.

My investments have pretty well mirrored the turbulent times. For those of a certain vintage, perhaps you will remember the late Bob Beckman who gave a morning roundup on LBC in the 1970's..... The market is behaving like an elevator with a lunatic at the controls.

Has anything really changed?

Dan, you have made an extremely important and poignant point.... the premium from trading with a subsidiary revenue stream. While ordinary mug punters such as me rarely move the price for quoted companies, the IR teams do occasionally monitor boards, mostly for a giggle, but occasionally when ideas are floated that they can discuss.

No doubt such route has been floated, but perhaps maybe it can be rolled out. After all, domain registration is pennies, hosting equally so and designers are nit exactly in short supply. Fresh and engaging content is the premium to pay

Phyl, I've been around a good many decades in building my portfolio making plenty of errors in that time. Although I have only really seen recessions from the late 1970's, a global pandemic that has lasted not just 18 months, but also still has many countries in its grip is unfamiliar to all of us.

My gut feeling is that there is going to be a trigger point when those companies that do survive are going to rise very strongly and other areas that are overheated are likely to fall equally dramatically. I am very worried about the residential property market - way out of control with lending above that in 2008 and continuing to rise that has been fuelled with low interest rates and re-ignited with Stamp Duty breaks. I'm preparing to put our primary residence on the market with a fancy price tag and move into the apartments above our offices.

Businesses that fail are sometimes quite good for economies - it improves the prospects for those that survive and allows for the hiring of the best former employees. The Government seem more optimistic as Covid 19 is currently under control in the UK so their focus will be on re-building the economy that was deliberately trashed. Economic growth of 7% might mean interest rates rise - bad for housing but good for savers. All a balancing act, but I am very optimistic for an improving summer and strong return for the remainder of the year. We appear to be at a turning point after a difficult year so far with many false starts in individual stock picks.

Presumably covgaz, your remark was directed to clairesmith rather than me. Although the SP appears to be rangebound and has been since June last year, the circumstances of last year are now largely under control in the UK and US but a few weeks behind for Europe.

This has all the hallmarks of very strong growth, the trigger probably being when ALL restrictions on distancing, masks and travel are removed for our main markets. At that point, I would expect share price growth to be at rate consistent or better than the years 2016-2018. Whether the high at the 4000 barrier is broken would be down to the fundamentals at the time.

We will know a little more in the Government evening briefing tonight as Grant Shapps will provide the details of countries on the Green, Amber and Red lists. As the Chancellor is currently visiting the TTG offices (and I hold shares in TTG) in Hartlepool, I am rather expecting some good news.

Why, and how does this impact RFX?

TTG have been trialling testing at Heathrow in association with iAbra for their Virolens kit. In a nutshell, it is minimally intrusive requiring saliva swab and results given within 20 seconds and 99.8% accurate and 96.7% specificity. Comment in the Hartlepool press suggests that there are going to be Government Orders for machines (and presumably to co-incide with the opening of airways for leisure travel).

My worry that travel would not really be viable before Autumn remains a caution until Europe have got their 3rd wave under control as the danger (that I foresee) is for a 3rd wave in the UK caused through the opening of leisure travel too early and spread by young men and women with minor children. The gradual lowering of travel barriers should reflect in FX transactions and future profit.

....with overweight note

It can be disheartening when share prices appear to be falling, yet the broader sentiment is optimistic. This week has been quite a good example (well, for me and my investments, anyway) where we learn that the UK is most certainly re-starting business and removing many of the obstacles and restrictions to liberty.

The upbeat message to expect one of the highest growth rates in 70 years has not yet translated to share prices in those quoted companies that should be the great companies in the future - hydrogen fuel cell, battery energy, renewables etc. Actually these (in my portfolio) have been the worst performers for the last month.

Time in the market will usually benefit investors. After all, the research to pick the wheat from the chaff for growth companies (and TTG is one IMO) means that news to propel a share price is outside control and will happen when it happens. Trying to time for this is unrealistic and adds a layer of insecurity that need not be present. While it may be disheartening in the short term canny investors tend to have long horizons and desire substantial rewards for patience.

The share split in the ratio 10 : 1 is effective today

oogleflugal, we MIGHT just hear something in the coming weeks. There is a sense of frustration that although the rollout of vaccine has been conducted at pace in the UK, we are not able to live our drab lives as we did, pre pandemic and that other countries do not share the same progress. The hint of relaxation of rules from late June is great for the UK, but for those wishing to travel there needs to be an effective, minimally intrusive, swift and in-expensive test at the point of departure/arrival for the period that brings all nations onto a level playing field.

It will start with domestic and very short haul (90 min duration) flights, I suspect with Dublin, Munich, Brussels, Paris and Amsterdam as the limit of travel from ANY UK airport. Since the principal ones are, Heathrow, Gatwick, Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Luton, Bristol and Edinburgh, (many others of course), it would not be unreasonable to have 10 points of test in each airport at the point where x-ray screening is made and , by the time that hand luggage has been scanned and passengers are through the control gates, the results will have been processed and a physical stamp provided on a boarding pass. That SHOULD provide the outbound permission for entry to foreign soil and a similar arrangement for testing in the arrivals system before passport control for a similar stamping.

I'd like release of RNS to confirm deployment (co-incidental with Government announcement) of a TTG solution for travel arrangements as people return to normal life. On the assumption that TTG are going to benefit from their expertise the window to buy at present prices is shortening. I foresee increasing volatility in the short term and am not at all confident that announcement is imminent.

Matched bargains I think. An explanation might be movement between separate funds as too large for domestic transactions such as bed and ISA

I've taken the opportunity to buy 1,000 shares this morning for elder son in his ISA. As those of influence in Goldman Sachs and other substantial players believe that there is likely to be better growth in UK and especially in smaller companies, it makes sense to have exposure through a broad and well managed IT.

Of course, I am a little biased in that I hold shares for self in a tiny dealing account and my SIPP, for my wife in her SIPP and for my wife in her ISA.

Berenberg have issued buy guidence with target 285p.

Of course buying shares with the price closer to 2100 is attractive, but trying to time such events is folly, IMO. Market movement of 10% or greater are not uncommon in AIM companies but usually such change is accompanied with rumour or to encourge bargains to be executed. If accompanied with news and increased volume it usually signals confidence that something has changed and the rise or fall will be sustained.

Economies in UK and USA are likely to return to more typical seasonal earnings as vaccination picks up and Europe will be in a similar position probably from mid June as the UK is today. I am excited, though May historically is usually a flat month in terms of capital appreciation though with the benefit of divdends.

The maxim for sell in May and return after the St Legers has run hasn’t really worked since 2012. Last year was an absolute corker in April, May and June..... lousy March.

Nice to note that the CEO has bought 8,104 shares today, though not sure if this is simply symbolic.