Member Info for Alas_Smith

Today AUGM has punted the notion to raise cash from shareholders. We know that the shares have risen 16% this year so the expectation is for decent numbers presented in the financial statements. Institutional investors might or might not participate in the fund raising, it depends on how good the numbers are and the pricing for succesful admittance of new shares.

Usually new shares are admitted at a discount to the prevailing SP, so it is actually to advantage if the SP does not get carried away in the run up to a fundraising placing. I have sufficient cash to be able to participate to a limited extent, if, for no other reason than to avoid dilution.

If the results are pedestrian, for me there is a compelling argument to sell. I’d prefer to participate in a fundraising especially if the terms are attractive but until there is news on which to base a decision, I will hold and await documents.

Oldfortyniner, I have not pressed the sell button, for the simple reason that the argument to continue to hold is more compelling than that in favour of selling. The change in holding by Morgan Stanley has caused the SP to wobble, but today is a down day for most of my holdings so no biggie in the overall scheme of things.... just a litttle larger fall than other holdings.

Since there is some ambiguity on the easing of restrictions (in the UK) provisionally mooted for 21 June, investors will probably want to sit on cash until at least the outlook is a little clearer. I am in that category and see no point in fiddling with my portfolio until at least 14 June when an update will be published by the Government. (Unless something else triggers a decision, of course).

I have my 2nd Covid Vaccination scheduled for Sunday. Much more important than worrying about stock exchange movements.

It is quite reasonable, I would have thought, that the professional investor such as a fund manager will make exactly the same mistakes as the ordinary punter,(PI). The limitations being in the financial scale of the mistake in terms of the erosion of monetary values, second from fundamental news where the PI lacks a team of researchers involved in minutiae and third the reluctance for a Pi to admit a mistake.

We all know that there will come a point when the virus begins to become unviable. Mutation occurs for the endurance of transmission. More often than not, although there is temporary increase in viability, its potency for death is diminished. Vaccine further reduce the seriousness of effect and may interrupt transmission.

Thus, it is reasonable to expect a return to “normal “ life with the freedoms appropriate to times where pandemic control is unnecessary. And the UK is aproaching that point, perhaps as soon as the end of June. That this same scenario is likely to pan out in ROI, France, Belgium, Spain, Netherlands, sweden, Denmark, Germany etc (our closest international neighbours) at the same time and to the same extent is unlikely.

That is why the SP, I believe is dropping. Nothing to do with the quality of the management, but simply the uncertainty for Governments to permit an easing of impositions just yet.

Neither a profit nor a loss can be made except at the point of sale. Paper losses or profits can accumulate or eliminate over time. I remember chatting to my best man as we walked through Green Park to a hotel at Hyde Park Corner to talk through the finer points of my stag night (he was a fund manager), that 2 minutes in the markets is a long time for some and 20 years of short duration for others.

The effects of the pandemic for Covid 19 are retreating for the world; for the UK our peak was in February. Vaccine rollout is bringing the liklihood of death from Covid 19 to negligible level and reducing the need for hospitalisation. And the UK is actually one of the leaders in the world. US and Europe are also getting things under control but no country can claim to have beaten this to the point where our daily lives are unfettred.

Investors generally want markets to rise and to see the value of their investments rise. This requires patience and the PI is often impatient and desires results immediately. The public want their liberties restored and are frustrated. Frustration provides volatility only. That is why we have some days when share prices rise or fall by significant (4%+) levels with the absence of news or volumes.

If 975p is a good price to buy EZJ shares, then great; if 1200p is a better price to buy shares just as fine. Similarly the same thing applies to 800p. The old adage of buy the rumour and sell the fact is as good now as it was. The rumour is that holiday makers are buying flights in spades. News does not support this confidence so the share price will drift.

As there remains uncertainty with travel, (I still feel that autumn is going to be the beginning of the return of discretionary travel), I doubt that the FX element is going to have a significant effect.

The pawnbroking side should begin to pick up now, and I am sorry to say this, that bailiff enforcement of evictions can re-commence. Many companies remain shuttered and those that have re-opened face either feast or famine. There seems no middle ground.

Short term will likely see unemployment rising, but more consequential on those businesses feasting not wishing to commit to expansion and the drip, drip loss of staff as those in famine try their best to stay alive.

Hindsight is brilliant, isn't it? After all, it betrays all the little mistakes, the short term decisions, which when repeated become long term decisions quite unwittingly. Hey, this is not a rhetorical post but more one of strategy where we could all do with sharing others thoughts. So, to start the ball rolling here goes:

I'm not going to pretend that I am right or wrong or have any special knowledge - I am just an ordinary herbert that has been round the block a few times and has made plenty of mistakes.

Latest broker opinion is to sell with a target price quite a bit down from where the shares are now and since published the SP has risen. I have recently added shares, but I don't have the privilege of broker notes, so why have I bought shares? Well, I expect that the share price will rise. I think that the rise will be greater than for its peers such as Diageo (yes I am comparing with a colossus) because I like niche, I like the whopping markup for flavoured water and I like the fact that "Kevin", "Sharon", "Tracey" and "Roy" are choosing Fevertree water instead of "You know who" for whatever reason they want. Perhaps it makes them feel sophisticated or like to be associated with the "brand" - I really don't care. What I do like is that the Kevin's, Tracey's, Sharon's and Roy's are being replicated in new markets which means that volumes of water are likely to increase. That I can't stand the additions of cucumber or any other concoction that for me ruins my evening drink as I wander around the garden trying to ignore the weeds before supper gong sounds I am endure the delights of whatever my wife has concocted., is neither here nor there. Somewhere, people are buying this stuff and, thus far my purchases are not doing too badly.

America (one of the largest markets in the world) is starting to grow - it will make UK sales seem trivial. Brexit rules will settle down and all will be fine in a couple of years for the European market to grow. What about China? That surely is a target market? Growing US markets customers by a compound 7% will have sales to dwarf those in the UK in 9 years. I think that the SP is back on track for exponential growth. Not advice, of course, but the points to support not owning shares in FEVR suggest to me that the recent broker note is tripe.

FWIW, I have bought a few shares today for elder son as he builds his portfolio. Aside from being a lightly traded Investment Trust (IT), it has a fine line-up of holdings and at a huge discount to Net Asset Value (NAV). Over the years it has provided very good returns for its shareholders but the discount has been widening since the market correction between Feb 22 and Mar 23 last year. Prior to that, the discount was closer to 14% than its present discount of 32%. On occasion the share price and the underlying NAV were equal.

The gap is likely to close either if the underlying holding that comprise the NAV fall, the share price of the trust rises or there is a change in the management team.

I like the underlying holdings. Nvidia had spectacular results beating analyst forecast, but the shares were unchanged - perhaps there will be headwind from the proposed purchase of ARM - Amazon has just bought MGM so is likely to be a challenge to Netflix and construction timber is in desperate short supply for US housebuilders. Has all the hallmarks to me of a rising share price though in the absence of any volume, not sure it will be as immediate as many would wish to see (self included).

The notes that accompanied the Trading Update in April gave a pretty downbeat picture for shareholders and the headwind faced for the company to generate revenue (and profit) in our home market. A couple of weeks ago, the BMA published a paper with a precis of the current situation compared with previous years and the ensuing growing backlog.

https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/pressures/pressure-points-in-the-nhs

It seems that the UK is not yet out of the woods in terms of Covid 19 care and patient admittance. Vaccine rollout has certainly knocked the bulk of cases on the head, but not to the extent that we can all draw a collective sigh of relief. Australia has placed Melbourne once again in lockdown so it is inevitable there as restrictions are lifted there is the danger of transmission of the virus in whatever viable variant that the virus needs to survive and this could have flareups to stifle progress.

Sure, it is good to see the share price recovering, but I am not sure that until there is announcement that NHS Consultant led plan is agreed that the upside has much further to run. I've not pressed the sell button, but am very tempted to sell into any strength. Any thoughts?

What is especially nice is that the BoD are issuing shares at a premium to the share price (and the underlying NAV) to satisfy demand for shares in this investment trust. It is not surprising, because aside from a top notch team, their decisions have helped to make investors very rich indeed.

My shares in THRG were purchased in 2012 and I have added to my holding as circumstances permitted. Since then, the chart plots the rising share price. Apart from the wobble consequential when markets collapsed in Feb 2020 for 4 horrid weeks, the shares have not only recovered but the rate of recovery has increased at a faster rate.

Received information published by most authoritative and substantial financial news outlets (Reuters, CNBC etc) have the mantra that companies on the the UK market have the potential for better growth than other markets (Brexit over, vaccine roll out, stable and majority government etc) and smaller companies in the FTSE -350 tend to be able to grow faster then those in the FTSE. And, of course, that is exactly the choice of company that forms the bulk of the portfolio for THRG.

I am sure that the SP is going to continue to rise at the current rate for at least the next 6 months. Whether this growth will continue into next year is a mater of speculation. I suggest it rather depends on the rest of the world getting to grips with the pandemic and the mutations that are expected to evolve. For the virus to remain viable, it needs to continue to infect. Vaccination will prevent deaths and allow our lives to return to normal

As we twiddle our thumbs, the Key Options website for virolens has been re-activated. Although an image presents a machine with an aircraft symbol and barcode (presumably as safe to fly), it does not confirm rollout in any airport.
https://virolens.keyoptionsgroup.co.uk/

This IT has one of the wider discounts to NAV which might be of worry to some. I suspect that this is offputting hence the wide spread and the light volumes. Anyway, have dipped a toe in in anticipation of the gap narrowing and the price continuing to rise.

Oddly enough, I bought T44 gilts last June in anticipation of inflation. Timing wrong, but decision correct (probably)

My purchase today is showing as a sell.

As you probably know, iAbra is the key to revenues from Virolens. According to medicaldevice-network, other partners are also involved. One of which is Key Options. Basically, KeyOptions provides data driven service and has secured the rights to bring Virolens testing units to Australia, Latin America, Turkey and SE Asia. The link in the KeyOptions website to virolens is set as a holding page at the moment.

It might be that news is imminent that is currently under embargo

The optimst in me relies on being a simpleon. And while I can see all sorts of technical reasons not to invest in TTG froma short terj perspective a the moment, momentum from the longer term puts this as a very solid hold.

The tipping point IMO is where we are right now. The shares have tried to close above 250p for a few days now but just fail each time. However, it is not for want of tries. There is a niggling doubt that orders are not going to happen which is providing the limited upside, but the support for downside because there are plenty of other revenue streams.

I prefer to average up these days so have a little dry powder. The longer the wait for the company to win orders, the greater the potential for drift in the share price. I am actually rather more inclined to reduce my holding and bank profits than to invrease exposure to unnecessary short term risk. Continued delay will only increase volatility.
I fear there is wild activity ahead.

I note that Berenberg have re-iterated their guidence of HOLD today with a target of 2300p. I guess they have not really studied the figures this week and put them into context in what has been a tough year for drink exporters to US with tarriffs introduced by Trump and the shuttering of many venues.

We can probably all admit that the valuation for FEVR is pretty lofty when considered from a fundamental perspective but having demonstrated substantial growth in the US in one of the most challenging periods, I would have thought that it merits HOLD though without the constraint of a price target.

There was a passing reference to FEVR in todays Investors Chronicle. I will read it over the weekend.

Unlike a tracker, this IT provides exposure to 65 top holdings that mimic progress of the S & P 500 index by holding the individual equities in the broad proportion that they have for the index. Any dividends thrown off are a bonus for investors but it is nice to have a direct exposure to the US Heavywegitht such as JP Morgan, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs and Citibank.

Well, Mr Market certainly seems to show approval for the shares today.

From a different perspective, the technical interpretation of the charts has an interesting potential liklihood to transact. I'd like to make it clear that as far as I am concerned this is not a reliable method to use but it can help some, I suppose. I am expecting a golden gross to occur in the next few weeks. A golden cross is broadly defined when the 200 day moving average and the 50 day moving average are seen to be rising and confirmed when the 50 day line crosses the 200 day line.

And while this is not infallible, it can bring the "technical buyers" out in force so that things are rather self fulfilling and the price continues to rise. While we (or more correctly, I) am/are on the subject of technical analysis, the 50 day trend is rising at a slower pace than that evidenced between May 2016 and its peak in September 2018.

I'll continue to add as funds permit on down days but seems to me idiotic to consider selling. It would be heartening to cross the 3000p threshold, though I doubt it will be before the late autumn.

Over the last 10 years the share price has traded at a discount to the underlying assets (NAV) by between 8% and 12%. However, the exponential growth since March 2020 has seen the NAV discount all but evaporate so I am expecting a little more weakness in the share price but with a strengthening in the NAV.
I'm happy to wait for the historic balance to be restored or at least see the SP trading above the 50 day mark before making any decision to adjust my holding.

I have disposed of my holding today taking advantage of recent uplift.

Inflation might not be the issue, CaptainPicard. SMT has a stake in Tesla. Tesla stated that they have not sold any Bitcoin and Bitcoin today has tanked. Regardless of the froth over the Bitcoin nonsense providing a valuation in discovering solution to a mathematical problem that has no benefit other than to criminals, The European Central bank is discussing insolvencies once financial support dries up. These are more likely to press on the asset valuation as that underpins the current share price.

FWIW, I have recently sold my stake in Baillie Gifford Japanese Smaller Companies and have ploughed the proceeds into UIFS.L Time will determine the folly or wisdom of my decision.