Member Info for Alas_Smith

My suspicion for the rise is that the NHS has regained control of Covid 19, not only because treatments are well known but because of the fantastic job that has been done in rolling out vaccines. The consequence is that this has freed up resource so that routine work can re-commence. Appointments are being made (beginning in April) to discuss elective surgery for non-urgent cases.

Not too fussed about the travel element of things in truth, Oldfortyniner, it is that European businesses are going to be behind the curve insofar as economic recovery is concerned. The market is forward looking, therefore, those equities whose principal earnings are domestic (UK, ROI, France, Spain and Germany) are going to be marked down as they are now a few months behind.

Translate this to companies whose principal earnings are in US, China the Antipodes and that will be on the leader board. Not, of course advice, but it makes better sense (to me) to either strengthen holdings in US or reduce those reliant on Europe.

As cash on my account represents 2 % and there is no single holding of mine to account for an amount greater than 3% portfolio capital, I m happy to sweat things out, but where I need to be fully invested, my hunch is to bung money at those involved in China, Emerging Markets, domestic, US and Europe in that order.

FWIW, my connections that work at the sharp end in the rarified atmosphere of politics, Von der Leyan was hopeless in Germany, Merkel is marmite (bit like Thatcher - brilliant at first, but ultimately despised - and Macron simply inept. For all of Johnsons faults, it is impossible to deny his optimism. A bit like Wooster who is reliant on Jeeves. Perhaps Whitty is that charactor?

This evening the German Minister for Health claimed that there was insufficient vaccine in Europe to prevent a 3rd wave. And by this I interpret that the main revenue generators in Europe, France, Germany and Italy are going to have a prolonged pandemic and, most probably yo-yo in and out of lockdown until July.

Sure, it would be easy to point a finger at Brussels not actually commissioning any vaccines when they were in development and then pooh-poohing the AZN vaccine for a couple of weeks. These 2 simple measures have not only left Europe 7 weeks behind the UK in terms of getting people back to work, but most probably 6 months before those countries are in the position in which the UK finds itself.

So, my contention is that this sort of news was a risk that private punters were unaware and the consequence is that the pandemic is far from over. How odd it will be that the UK, in common with our broader historic dependencies, Australia and New Zealand might actually be among the first English speaking nations to emerge battered from a pandemic that has wreaked so much pain and misery to leave such scar.

Basically, although the UK might be putting its house in order, the same cannot be said for Europe hence the general malaise in shares most affected by shuttered economies.

Oldfortyniner, I have been thinking about your comment that "buys" of £16.8m were reported after hours and I am wondering if these actually were buys. If the bargains were executed during the day, around the point where there was a very steep decline, the price might be interpreted after hours as being on the buy side because that is the line of best fit at the point when the bargain was published.

Todays decline therefore might represent the point which is sufficiently attractive to entice buyers and thus clear any overhang that might be in place if my hypothesis is correct.

As to whether it will be an up or a down day tomorrow, it rather depends on the battle that is going on between bond holders and equity investors. I added some shares to my elder sons SIPP today, which, I fully expect to be beneficial in the years ahead. It wasn't the best price, but certainly better than if they were bought yesterday!

Although Europe and perhaps USA is facing a 3rd wave, with Paris in lockdown so the road to economic recovery and economic re-opening is bumpy. But, Pacific countries such as China, Korea, and Vietnam as well as Australia and New Zealand are pretty well functioning on most, if not all cylinders. UK has vaccinated about 30% population and has started to ramp up the rate for delivery of 1st jabs (mine is on Saturday) and USA about 20%.

So, as the UK begins to re-open deliberately shuttered economies despite the licensed trade to be among the last to re-open, I am confident that sales will pick up and translate to revenue. America is already muttering about re-opening its borders for travellers and to follow after that will be hospitality.

America is a far bigger market than UK or Europe BUT to break into that market takes time. FEVR has opened the doors and is taking advantage of its niche products. I don't care for any of their flavoured tonics, but it does not mean that this is a poor investment.

Good fortune to all (I also hold a decent qty bought in November in my ISA). I tend not to comment if there is nothing that I can add, so please do not expect much research or analysis from me.

Although I do not hold shares in SMT, my elder son (whose portfolio I manage) does. Despite the noise from Europe about vaccine distributions, lawsuits over the question mark that hangs over the "Irish problem" post Brexit and the general fiddle-arseing in governments on the why, where, how, when and who to blame that is becoming increasingly vocal on the (mis)management of this dreadful pandemic, the developed world is actually beginning to reclaim their typical drab lives last manifest 15 months ago.

And, whether we like it or not, the mood is for low interest rates, reduction in carbon use, increase in alternative energy and an awful lot of debt for a few decades. Perhaps inflation with its power of capital erosion will be seen as beneficial, but at the moment insofar as returns for capital are concerned, my money is in emerging markets for growth through consumerism, high risk hydrogen companies in their development phase and IT. The latter for growth from AI or machine learning.

Oddly enough the portfolio for this Investment Trust seems to have similar perspective.

Good luck to all. Mr Yellen (the sage that knows his onions) has given guidence that suggests benefit for equities over bonds. I sense bluer days ahead rather than the recent grey ones.

From my understanding, Primary Bid is trying to be all things to all people and have a level playing field. And while it is actually commendable that companies and investors support such iniatives this is novel with a steep learning curve for investors, companies and brokers to ensure its success.

But experience cautioned me not to use version 1 of anything new until all the flaws had been addressed. Usually by version 3 there is sufficient familiarity with protocols, procedures and practice to run smoothly.

I have preferred to buy in the market or IPO or, on the rare occasion when the hat is passed around through established routes. Primary Bid is yet to be such path hence I did not participate.

With the basic information that the majority of us have, it is always easy to attribute suspicion that Market Makers are "holding the price back" or somehow manipulating the market. MM's are there to make a market and can be long or short without the need to disclose their position.

I have not looked at the volumes transacted but it might be that the recent rapid uplift in the share price brought a few sellers out of the woodwork and these are gradually being hoovered up by domestic punters. It might also be that there is a worked sell order in the background and, so that there is no alarm or panic, prices remain steady and thus an orderly market is evidenced.

Of much greater conern are wild swings in the absence of news or volume.

As far as I am concerned, Spring is beginning to take over from Winter, vaccine is being rolled out at an increasing rate and takeup is high. Shops in Wales are starting to re-open, school children are returning to their classrooms and Europe is beginning to play "catchup". Life therefore is returning to normal. I will be even happier once I receive my first vaccine (this Saturday), have a reaction to my jab but no lasting ill effect or complication.

Cannot declare a loss or profit unless share is sold. I've kicked myself many times for not running profits long enough and holding losers too long.

Having made a conscious effort since 2012 to change that, my portfolio performance has improved a full 1%. And although this does not sound much, the effect over an 8 year timeframe has benn very beneficial, especially in poor years such as 2018.

Rise was because the DOW breached a new high, soothing words from poker faced central bankers to dampen bond yields. Money has to be made somewhere and it all comes down to the management of risk.

So, while it is relatively easy to manage an investment pot of say £1m to have a consistent return of 6%-8% capital growth and 1.5% income by spending one day each month reviewing the portfolio and perhaps executing 2 bargains each month. If the same approach were taken with a portfolio of say £5bn, politics, economics, weather, war and seemingly irrelevent news can and does have effect.

It is easy to shift a single £50,000 holding, but if the holding is notifiable (3% or greater) there is the potential for disruption. A good example was investors running for the hills when Mr Woodfords flagship funds began failing. At first could replace funds through new investor contribution. When those dried up, so the poor performing holdings began to be sold off. These sell offs caused further weakness that accellerated share price falls. Falls, reduced the NAV of assets to cause further worry...... Investors left and called their money in so greater and more substantial sales of the realisable assets were necessary and the spiral continued.

We have seen something similar. Realisation that when each huge slug of cash introduced it will ensure that workers remain employed and taxes are generated to allow a country to function. Coupled with interest rates that are negligible and all is good. When there is no margin to reduce interest rates and the amount being chucked at the problem, two things happen. First that it dawns that the money needs to be repaid and second that the shortest way to repay it is through the erosion of capital.... ie, inflation.

Inflation means that wages and thus costs, rise and margins shrink. Equities thus have increased risk but bonds provide safety

I have added another few shares today to average up (my preferred method of accumulation). I doubt that the transaction will move the share price, but, with the chart showing a broad trend of improvement and my gut feeling that the UK and to a point, America and Europe, are getting Covid 19 under control, recovery to pre-pandemic levels for the SP has improved considerably.

I thought the results were pretty good - slightly higher revenue, excellent cash conversion, gross margin improved but higher costs to achieve that margin, so I guess that is why the SP has been marked down - EPS reflected in the increased number of shares rather than anything more serious, so, unless I am missing something obvious see no reason not to continue holding.

Well, I console myself that as I have been trying to build my portfolio since 1979 when I graduated, I have probably seen the full gamut of catastrophe and exuberance. Investors have much to look forward to as the immediate future becomes clearer.

Let's start with the $1.9tn relief package that has been approved in USA. Putting that in perspective it is like a single money injection equivalent to $2,000 for every minute in 2,000 years. Next, corporate America is no longer in an earnings recession, then we have China that this week published its 5 year plan and forecast 6% economic growth for this year. Add to this that 20% US and UK have been vaccinated against Covid19 and about 12% for Europe. All are starting to find their feet again to begin the rebuild of economies.

Economies deliberately sacrificed to prevent deaths was a new one on me and it is clear to me that most governments had poor management at the outset, panicked as matters worsened but were always focussed for managing matters at the point of inflection. That point was found in November with the announcement of viable vaccine, and started to kick in once the vaccination program began to be rolled out.

This is most definitely the point (IMO) to be fully invested. The vaccination program that began 2 months ago has provided protection for 20% of the most vulnerable (in the UK) and by the end of March, I warrant that this will rise to be 20% fully protected and 35% UK partial protection.

The Pacific region has populace that is far more compliant of rules than the developed West and that is why their economies are recovering faster. But they are not yet vaccinated in substantive numbers and it is that which is perhaps suppressing growth.

I remain bullish and anticipate adding to my holding during this month as I re-invest dividends that are starting to again appear on my account. Please do not attribute any credence to my posts as I do not hold licence to provide investment advice. Simply these are the musings of an old bloke from a troglodyte perspective

Well, things are al looking a little bleak at the moment, aren't they? Americans don't give a hoot about having a liar as a President for 4 years yet get hot under the collar when yields rise a paltry 0.25% (or whatever it was) from an unprecedented low because there is the glimmer of inflation.

China is forecasting growth of more than 6%, USA has drawn a line under corporate earnings recession, UK has vaccinated about 25% population, America 20% and Europe is beginning to catch up albeit from a late start. I remain bullish despite having had an atrocious few days with my portfolio taking a caning.

Whenever there is choice of paper or cash, I have ALWAYS taken any dividends as cash.

The Chancellor in todays budget made reference to infrastrusture and green bond - I didn't count how many but suspect it was well over 30 - hopefully will translate to renewed interest in this (and other) Investment Trust

FWIW, I am extremely bullish and increased my risk last November when it became clear there was to be a change in political leadership in USA.

Why, you might ask? There is an awful lot that can go right and it started with the announcement of viable vaccine, then Brexit out of the way, the inauguration of a US President more comfortable with "traditional" diplomacy, rollout of vaccine(s) and the broad pathway for a return to a more normal way of life, without masks and able to travel.

Coupled with this is the HUGE amount of money that UK, Europe and US are chucking into markets to return their deliberately trashed economies to prosperity. And although bond yields increased a tiny amount last week to send some scurrying to their wet nurses, that wall of money is not going to cause rampant inflation (well, not just yet).

Sure, once lockdown is lifted for all accross UK and Europe it will encourage some spending and compared with a coiled spring being released. But coiled springs might kick start things off, but they tend to return to stability. The relief will be short lived as the reality of redundancy will emerge.

I am not a fan of continuing the furlough scheme without good cause. I am very sympathetic to those businesses that are prevented from re-opening and would continue the furlough scheme for a full 6 weeks after they are permitted to re-open. The country is rich and can pay for the damage that it is done over a decade or more.

With any luck we will have a realistic budget tomorrow, though I fear that the ground will be prepared for belt tightening in later years. Perhaps the cap removed on NI for instance, the scrapping of Stamp Duty as a land tax and an increase in Stamp Duty on bargains from 0.5% to 0.75% would not be unreasonable. I would also extend it to cover all bargains on the LSE or its junior market, AIM.

Clear that reform to business rates is needed - a turnover tax, fledgling businesses (1st year), pay nil, £100, 2nd year and £350 in year 3. Micro-entities, regardless of the industry (under £500,000) pay £500, tiny businesses (£500,001 to £5m), £500 per £500,000 increment, medium businesses £5m-£100m incremental £1,500 per £1m and large business 1% turnover.

I've just plucked these number from the ether without any serious analysis. Emphasis needs to be given to small startups, especially those consequential on pandemic.

I am not surprised that the Chancellor is keen in fintech, it is a sector which is in fashion.....same with renewables....This promotes trading activity even if the sector does ot fulfil expectation. From an Exchequer pperspective, I would have thought that if there is the prospect of London Stock Exchange losing out to Frankfurt, it would be a blow to tax revenues. Consider all the tiny algo trades which generate 0.5% on the buy side..... Aside from maintaining a healthy market, presumably the majority of the time there is a profit. Corporate profits attract tax

The stone age did not end through the shortage of stone. Renewable energy is the future, we can all surely accept that to be the case. Internal combustion engines will be around and in daily use until there is not just sufficient charging capacity but also the time taken to a full charge is comparable with that for existing vehicles.

I am not a chartist by any stretch of the imagination, but the share price has a habit of putting in a decent rise off the 50 day moving average. That happenned in late December, Early Feb and again today (ish). My short term target is 960p.